[RWR8189]

Subgroup	% of voters	% Voting for Bush	% Voting for Kerry	Bush advantage
Liberal	17	12	88	-76
Moderate	40	37	63	-26
Conservative	43	80	20	+60
Democrat	37	7	93	-86
Independent	24	48	52	-4
Republican	39	95	5	+90
Bush won state in 2000	50	58	42	+16
Gore won state in 2000	50	45	55	-10
States won by fewer than six points in 2000	35	48	52	-4

 

Subgroup	% of voters	% Voting for Bush	% Voting for Kerry	Bush advantage
Men	46	56	44	+12
Women	54	48	52	-4
White (non-Hispanic)	87	57	43	+14
Nonwhite	13	17	83	-66
Black	8	7	93	-86
18 to 29 years old	13	40	60	-20
30 to 49 years old	38	57	43	+14
50 to 64 years old	26	53	47	+6
65 years and older	24	48	52	-4
East	23	42	58	-16
Midwest	23	52	48	+4
South	33	57	43	+14
West	22	52	48	+4
Urban	28	44	56	-12
Suburban	52	54	46	+8
Rural	20	54	46	+8
Postgraduate education	20	47	53	-6
College graduate (no postgrad)	15	58	42	+16
Some college	33	56	44	+12
High school or less education	32	46	54	-8
Married	58	60	40	+20
Not married	42	40	60	-20
Married men	30	61	39	+22
Unmarried men	16	45	55	-10
Married women	28	58	42	+16
Unmarried women	26	36	64	-28
Union household	14	33	67	-34
Non-union household	86	55	45	+10
Gun owner	35	65	35	+30
Non-gun owner	65	44	56	-12
Attend church weekly	31	63	37	+26
Attend church nearly weekly/monthly	29	55	45	+10
Seldom/Never attend church	40	40	60	-20
Protestant	53	62	38	+24
Catholic	26	48	52	-4
Military veteran	20	60	40	+20

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[The G Man]

Gallop can take their 49-49 tie and stick it where the polls don't shine!

[Cagey]

....men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans,...

Fuuny, Kerry meets (or claims to meet) seven out of eight of these categories and that didn't help him.

[angelanddevil2]

I didn't even bothered to read the excuses. I followed all the polls, they varied a lot every 5 minutes, got me confused and didn't predict well. Doesn't matter how they justify themselves now.

[GSlob]

Conservatives are listed as voting 80/20. 20% is not 1-5% which could be attributed to marginals and freaks. Even if it is 10-15%, what kind of a conservative would vote kerry?

[MSM Hater]

Does anyone have posting rights at DU? If so the "college graduate" row, "some college" row and "high school or less" row need to be highlighted and the whole thing posted to show that the better educated prefer Bush over Kerry. This crushes the liberal theory that Bush supporters are stupid and uneducated.

[pgkdan]

These numbers are bullsh*t...just like Gallup's 90% break of undecideds for Kerry.

[colorado tanker]

Gallup is trying to pull a Zogby here. Sorry, Gallup, your final call was not 49-47, it was 49-49. You lost your nerve, ignored your data and massaged the final result. You blew it.

[Protagoras]

All of these numbers of course are subject to the same problems as all polls. So they may just be meaningless.

[Sam Cree]

I kind of think that these days the Democratic Party has the super wealthy and some minorities, artsy and academic types, unions and a minority of the middle class.

Republicans have most small business owners, and a majority of the middle class.

I'd guess that the professional class is evenly divided, perhaps with a slight edge to the Dems?

Investors should be Republican, but I'm not sure about them.

Corporate America, I'd think would slightly favor Republicans.

[JanetteS]

Why are we still reading these things? Didn't this election prove that polls are too easily manipulated? The majority of them were a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing before the election and the post analysis are likely the same. There's apparently an entire industry out there devoted to convincing at least 51% of the country that, at the very least, their opinion doesn't matter and, at the most, that their vote doesn't count.

I say at let the polls die along side the MSM. This country is no longer governed at the top by those who watch the polls, why should the rest of us give them more power than they deserve?

[Tanniker Smith]

men, whites, Southerners, married voters, churchgoers, Protestants, gun owners, and veterans, as well as his natural Republican supporters

Yup, yup, nope, yup, yup, nope, noneofyourbusiness, nope, and technically an Independent.

Well, that gives me at least four categories. My wife only fits into two categories, which explains her socialist vote. (She wasn't that way when I married her . . . )

TS

[mmsturm]

Why even bother with Gallop. They blew the election as bad or worse than Zogby. They had Kerry winning Florida by 3%. Jeez, they where only off by 8%. Forget them all.

[alnick]

I want to see how the numbers break down for active-duty military personnel.

[Plutarch]

........................................% of Electorate…voting for Bush

White (non-Hispanic)…………87………57
Nonwhite……................……13………17
Black…....…….............……..8………..7

7% of Blacks and 17% of Nonwhites voting for Bush? Yikes!

This is after Bush spent 4 years doing everything he could for Hispanics especially.

[Dont Mention the War]

Bush owes victory to support from conservative-leaning groups

Another headline from the cover of "DUH" magazine!

[ambrose]

USAToday/CSPAN and AP are now showing Bush's popular vote margin to be at 52 to 47%

Gallup really screwed the pooch with their final projection. They had been showing Bush with a consistent 5-6 point lead, then suddenly showed a tie in their last poll.

[Salvation]

PRESIDENT BUSH WON CATHOLIC VOTE

[Future Useless Eater]

bump for reference

[jwalsh07]

How come they just didn't give Kerry three points in their analysis like they did in their final poll?