Posted on 11/03/2004 12:00:02 AM PST by Congressman Billybob
It’s time for the chickens to come home to roost. Here are my predictions, word for word, from 30 August, 2004:
“It isn’t necessary to wait until the end of the Republican Convention to make this year’s predictions. Bush will have a 5% lead after the convention. That will increase to 10% by November 2, and the Electoral College results will be a landslide for Bush. At the same time, the Republicans will gain two seats in the Senate, and 11 seats in the House.
“Outside Washington, Republicans will gain one governorship, 121 seats in the various state legislatures, and a substantial number of other state and local offices. Lastly, all these specific predictions are minimums. Any results that don’t match my predictions should be greater than my numbers.”
For those who want to look it up, the title of that article is: “Why John Kerry is Now Toast.”
Up until the last minute the MSM (Mainstream Media) were nearly unanimous in saying that this election is “a statistical tie” or “too close to call.” Yet the actual result was that President Bush led by three percent as this is written, and will win the Electoral College by 281 to 259. Why was the MSM consistently wrong in reporting on the election on 1 November?
I got the direction right, but the strength of the victory wrong. Why did I get the dynamics of the race correct, more than two months in advance?
Many of you know me under my pen name on the Internet, as The (More er Less) Honorable Congressman Billybob from Western Carolina. Sounds like someone who just fell off the turnip truck, doesn’t it? Truth is, I am a Ph.D. dropout in political science from American University. (Done the course work; still owe them a dissertation.) I pay attention to statistics.
When the political scientists finish analyzing this election, here’s what they will find: Unions are the both the money and volunteer backbones of the Democrat Party. But unions have been shrinking steadily in their percentage in the population. Union households are now only about 14 percent of all households. On the other hand, households which have a veteran in them are now about 26 percent of all households.
In prior elections, that comparison was irrelevant. Though union households voted mostly (but not entirely) for Democrats, veteran households were roughly split between Republicans and Democrats. Not this year. In 2004 the veterans voted by a margin of about 65 to 35 percent for Bush. They also provided money and volunteers to the Republican cause like union members long have for Democrats. I think research will establish that the animosity of most veterans against Kerry, both for his exaggerations about his Vietnam service and lies about his fellow veterans when he returned, was the key to his defeat. Kerry’s votes against military funding and programs over his twenty years in the Senate also contributed to that result.
Here’s how I stated this decisive factor, more than two months before the election: “Kerry had already decided, along with his high-powered, top-dollar, experienced advisors, that he was going to feature his Vietnam experience. Rather than set it aside and deal with more recent subjects, Kerry decided to hang his campaign hat on his four months and 12 days on Swift Boats in Vietnam. His representatives forced that subject into the speeches of most people at the Democrat Convention. Kerry himself slammed the point home from his opening salute to the final paragraphs of his speech accepting the nomination. When John Kerry sat down after that speech, his campaign was already doomed to defeat.”
The fate of my other predictions are these: I said the Republicans would gain two seats in the Senate; they did gain two, as this is written (pending others in Florida and South Dakota). I said the Republicans would gain 11 seats in the House; they did gain three as this is written
At the state level, I said the Republicans would gain one Governorship in the eleven races this year; they gained one. I said the Republicans would gain 121 seats in the state legislatures; these results are not yet known, but the gain will not be as high as I predicted.
And as I said, if my numbers were off, the actual results should be higher. So here’s my final score card: Presidency, wrong by seven percent. Senate, right. House, low. Governors, right. State legislatures, right direction, wrong number by unknown amount.
The fundamental problem with the MSM is they are overstocked with people who can talk like they know what they are doing. But their bench is thin for people who actually do know what they are doing. There are people who really understand the dynamics of American elections. But they are more likely to be somewhere in the blogosphere than to be on the network news or published in the MSM.
As we used to say during a game of tag, on the playground of the elementary school at Salisbury State Teachers College half a century ago:
“Gotcha.”
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About the Author: John Armor is a First Amendment attorney and author who lives in the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina. CongressmanBillybob@earthlink.net
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Is that so difficult? I don't think so.
What does Kerry do next, does he drag this through litigation?
"What does Kerry do next, does he drag this through litigation?"
Same question from me o wise one of the tarheel mtns, can Kerry now cheat his way into the White House?
For Kerry to win in Ohio by a single vote, he would have to take about 75% of all those ballots, assuming they're all good. And those ballots come from all over Ohio, not just from Cleveland. And even in Cleveland, Kerry didn't take 75% of the vote.
So any way you scratch it, Kerry has lost. The only question is how much stupidity he wants to display before bowing to the inevitable. IMHO.
John / Billybob
My opinion as well. This was a good night for George Bush, even PA was only 51-48 Kerry. Without the MSM covering for Kerry, it would have been a laugher.
Good night.
As a west/central Pennsylvanian I apologize for my state--evidently, it is too corrupted by Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and our ex-DNC Governor "fast eddie" Rendell--hopefully, we can rid ourselves of some of the 'rats' in the next 4 yrs and become full American Patriots once again--as a WW2 vet, I am disgusted to see what my country has stooped to although the fact that "moral values" was cited by the voters as the most important reason to vote this election gives me some hope for the future
Do you have any idea who I should contact in CA (or elsewhere) about the returns for Nevada county here in California - that is reporting 112.8% voter turnout with 78.2% of the precincts reporting?
http://vote2004.ss.ca.gov/Returns/status.htm
I expected an 8 point lead for Bush ... it looks to be 3-4 points. Evan Thomas was wrong - the MSM isnt good for 15%, it's been reduced to being good for around 5%. JMHO.
Comepensation:
Sen John Thune.
Sen Tom Coburn.
+4 GOP pickup in the Senate (SD,NC,SC,GA,FL,LA, -IL, -CO)
FWIW, it wa a 2point win for Kerry in PA...
Tat I believe was closer than in 2000.
You Da Man
side note: this is true for just about every field of human endeavor, aside from "being a DNC cat's-paw"
VOTE FRAUD BUMP
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA--you lose, Susan!
Unsure how this (vanity?) thread qualifies as local news for all those states, I will agree that you sure do know your politics! ;O)
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA--you lose, Susan!
I want to know one thing:
What has Lawrence O'Donnell said about this?
After his smug, condescending behavior on TMG and his meltdown on MSNBC's Scarborough Country, I want to see him enjoy a nice plate of crow.
Senator Kerry is merely displaying the traits that should have been obvious to anyone who voted for him.
Senator Kerry is a two time money grubbing gigilo who does not have the integrity or strength of character to make his own decisions. It is quite obvious the man has taken the easy way out all his life which is is reflected by the way he talks about "allies" and a "global test." When one engages in "constructive dialogue" with "allies" it gives the appearance of accomplishment without actually having to make any real effort to make the unpopular decision. Plus, when the "allies" help to make your decisions, this means you don't have to take responsibility for that decision. This is pure unadulterated laziness.
Senator Kerry's life is completely consumed by his elitist attitude that he is "born to rule" and deserves everything to be handed to him, without any effort on his part. Again, I point to his history in regards to Vietnam, and his marriages.
I mention all this, because I think he truly believes he "deserves" to be president, plus does not know how to make his own decision and will let others decide for him on how to handle the post election.
Good point; old Lawrence did NOT help his career by behaving like a teenager whose dad refused to give him the keys to the car.
Thank you VERY much. I sent it to everyone I could think of... (FNC didn't care so I emailed it to them - operator probably a dem)... and that is including the Atty General you mentioned, and the Sec of State letting him know I had sent the info posted on his website to the press, and sometime while I was sleeping it was corrected.
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