Harris Poll Details (Phone: B +4; online K+2, early: B+6 -- B 50, K 44)

PR Newswire ^ | Nov. 1, 2004 | Harris Poll

[FairOpinion]

Not our final surveys This is NOT the final Harris Interactive poll release before this election. We will continue to poll throughout today, Monday, November 1, and will analyze and release the results some time tonight or tomorrow morning before the "real" polls open and people begin voting in person. Because, in the past, voting intentions have continued to move right up to the last moment of an election campaign, we believe it is important to continue our polling until Monday evening.

[FairOpinion]

Harris was the most accurate in 2000.

Details of polls at the link above.

[ConservativeGreek]

Gold standard polling!

[ambrose]

They also used a likely voter model which is much looser than the ones they've used in the past.

[america-rules]

Harris phone and online don't jive with each other. In 2000 they were right on and their online showed a Gore win by 1% on Monday night !

I've been searching google for the final online result and it's not out yet.

[jwalsh07]

How so?

[traderrob6]

what does that "early" reference mean?

[CaptSkip]

Cautiously optimistic???

This cell phone only stuff, and voter fraud has me worried.

[ambrose]

See here:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-20-2004/0002289475&EDATE=

They used likely voter definition number one...

[FreeKeys]

Hey, there are STILL a few things you CAN do!  After all,  It ain't over 'til it's over. So KEEP ON CAMPAIGNING !  Half the electorate STILL does NOT know what Kerry REALLY is.  You can still copy and email things like THIS to everyone and ask them to do the same.  You can also email this if you know how: 

image source:  http://freedomkeys.com/wtcplane2.jpg
found at: http://freedomkeys.com

[CaptSkip]

Cautiously optimistic.

This "cell phone only" stuff and voter fraud has me worried.

[jpeg82]

Remember the two different options in their last poll?

1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are
"absolutely certain" to vote.....

2)Using this definition but excluding all
those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush
has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has
proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this
election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which
case it would be wrong to exclude them.


Well, the second is the more liberal and the new model.

Oct. 20: Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote
and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a
modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=105&STORY=/www/story/10-20-2004/0002289475

Nov. 1: Using the same model. Bush 49 Kerry 45. http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=105&STORY=/www/story/11-01-2004/0002349678

The point is, this is the best possible scenario for Kerry and he is behind 4 and lost a point in the last 2 weeks, while Bush gained 1 point.

[KerrySuxxor]

Double post .. been posted 2 hours ago.

[jpeg82]

Correction: Remember the two different options in their last poll? 1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote..... 2)Using this definition but excluding all those who were old enough to vote in 2000 but did not do so, President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). This second definition has proved more accurate in the past, but there are some indications that in this election many people who did not vote in 2000 will turn out to vote, in which case it would be wrong to exclude them. Well, the first is the more liberal and the new model. Oct. 20: Using one definition of likely voters, those who are registered to vote and are "absolutely certain" to vote, the poll shows President Bush with a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=105&STORY=/www/story/10-20-2004/0002289475 Nov. 1: Using the same model. Bush 49 Kerry 45. http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=105&STORY=/www/story/11-01-2004/0002349678 The point is, this is the best possible scenario for Kerry and he is behind 4 and lost a point in the last 2 weeks, while Bush gained 1 point.

[Porterville]

Don't worry about the cell phone only stuff; it is only a factor in large urban centers like SF, typically liberal. I wouldn't sweat it. Think about the fact that more people are getting DSL so they toss in a hard line. We have one so we can fax. I think any factor cells have is canceled out by DSL hardlines.

[ConservativeGreek]

Can't find the +6, found the +4?????

[OneLoyalAmerican]

Just spent the day door-to-door canvasing of registered voters in Cuyahoga County, Ohio on behalf of Bush-Cheney.

Semi-scienfic results of voters who voted already, and those will vote tomorrow: Bush leads Flipper about 52%, and Herman leads Kuchinich 56%.

[FairOpinion]

People who already voted and when they are being polled, they tell the pollster not for whom they intend to vote, but for whome they already voted. Bush has a nice lead there.

[David1]

Look at table 4.

[FairOpinion]

TABLE 4
BUSH VS. KERRY: HOW EARLY VOTERS VOTED

"Who did you vote for?"
Base: All likely voters(1) who have already voted (Approximately 24
percent of all "Likely Voters")

%
George W. Bush 50
John Kerry 44


===

50-44=6

[ConservativeGreek]

Thanks, those are the folks that already voted (early) OK!