Posted on 11/01/2004 10:53:25 AM PST by M 91 u2 K
High Turnout Means Kerry Victory John LeBoutillier Monday, Nov. 1, 2004 Beginning last spring I wrote of the theory of the Passion Differential - the difference between the anti-Bush forces and the pro-Bush forces. I added that the Democratic nominee was basically irrelevant to this race; that the anti-Bushies were creating a wave of support and all the Democratic nominee had to do was to climb aboard an imaginary surfboard and “ride that wave” to victory.
Well, we are now a day before the biggest election since the epic 1980 battle between the failed presidency of Jimmy Carter and the electoral tidal wave ushered in by his challenger, Ronald Reagan.
What is going to happen tomorrow?
A tsunami of new voters, young voters, recently registered-by-the-Democrat Party-and-George Soros voters, minority voters and unhappy-with-the direction-of-the-country voters is going to swell the voting lines all day tomorrow.
We are going to have an unprecedented turnout - the largest ever - and that is not good news for the GOP and President Bush.
The higher the turnout - and some estimate upward of 120 million voters - the better it is for Kerry because those new voters are coming to vote against President Bush.
How do we know this?
Early Voting numbers are at an all-time high. In Florida people are willing to wait 3 1/2 hours to vote on a Sunday!
Absentee ballot applications are at an all-time high. There is unprecedented interest and passion across the board for this election. All polls ask that question - and over 70% of voters this year claim to be paying “a lot of attention” to the race. Viewership for all 3 debates was substantially higher than for the 3 debates 4 years ago. The Democrats, ACT and their labor pals have a better get-out-the-vote operation than Bush and the GOP do. Polling of those who have already voted in Florida is decidedly anti-Bush; the same in Iowa where Kerry is leading 56-39 among those who have already voted.
Yes, early voting polls could be an aberration; but that is doubtful.
Plus the best pollster - John Zogby, who was the only correct pollster 4 years ago - now shows a Kerry surge in the Battleground states (except Ohio). Zogby predicts a Kerry victory tomorrow.
What indications to look for tomorrow?
Cable TV will have cameras positioned in key precincts around the country. If we see lines literally around the block, we will know that indeed the huge turnout is underway. And if it is, the race may not even be that close.
Exit polling will be done by the 5 TV networks - and the results will seep out by late afternoon (they always do).
Prediction: the anti-Bushies will defeat the pro-Bushies tomorrow night by 3 points in the popular vote and will garner over 280 electoral votes.
John Kerry - sitting atop the surfboard on this anti-Bush wave - will be the President-Elect.
The assumptions are wrong. In the past the registered voters usually gave the Democrats a much stronger showing then when likely voters. Now the numbers are almost identical and sometimes Bush numbers are better among registered voters vs. likely voters. I think you can through a lot of the past assumptions out in this election.
OK, I'll do my part then and refrain from voting!
This has been my biggest concern. Republicans have to get out to vote. Conservatives who considered voting for a third party candidate, need to vote for Bush-Cheney. Christian conservatives who were thinking about staying home, again, need to get out to vote for Bush-Cheney.
If you would like to wake up on Wednesday morning with John Kerry as President-Elect, then you don't love America. There is only one choice. Be a patriot and vote for Bush-Cheney.
Link?
I don't believe that for a second. That's last minute scare tactics trying to depress the Repubs. Just vote and forget this stuff. I did and feel better all ready!
The lines for early voting here in Texas were extremely long, and where I live this is definately Bush Country. If we are this energized here in Texas, you can imagine how energized the Republicans must be in the swing states.
The assumptions are wrong. In the past the registered voters usually gave the Democrats a much stronger showing than when likely voters are used. Now the numbers are almost identical and sometimes Bush numbers are better among registered voters vs. likely voters. I think you can throw a lot of the past assumptions out in this election.
I've also noticed that this guy has been dour all year. In fact, look at his picture on Newsmax. It's of a dour, depressed guy. He is like George Will, who always seems depressed
I think you're right about that. He seems to have a problem with the entire Bush family.
How do we know this?
... ummmmmmm... because it was such a sure-fire success formula for Howard Dean and his much ballyhooed zillion-strong army of "Deaniacs"...? :)
Even better, when has he ever been right?
The higher the turnout - and some estimate upward of 120 million voters - the better it is for Kerry because those new voters are coming to vote against President Bush.
That's a big, big assumption. This is not a normal election Mr. LeBoutillier.
Wasn't MSM saying same thing during Reagan election and it turned out many of new voters registered were Christians?
I know. And a missing Chandra Levy means an abduction by a motorcycle gang of gay Jamaicans -- right, Mr. LeBoutillier?
Standby. It was said on Rush Limbaugh today while Rush interviewed Governor Jeb Bush. Let me find the post.
High LEGITIMATE TURN OUT MEANS BUSH VICTORY
Of course, dems want felon votes and dead folks' votes...
I disagree completely. Especially when ya take this info into consideration. The poll came out yesterday:
The latest NY Times/CBS poll has President Bush up by 48-45. The "internals" of the poll provide even worse news for John Kerry. For example,
John Kerry has a 41% favorable, 47% unfavorable rating. This is his worst rating ever. President Bush has a 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable rating. That is his best rating since last December.
Undecided voters lean to President Bush 50%-47%, validating the Pew finding and calling the Gallup number into question.
66% of Bush voters strongly favor their candidate.
50% of Kerry voters strongly favor their candidate.
By a 49%-34% margin, voters expect President Bush to win.
53% of voters do not think that Kerry agrees with their priorities, his worst number ever. 42% believe he has the same.
48% of voters do not think that Bush agrees with their priorities. 49% believe he does share their priorities.
52% of voters think Kerry has leadership qualities, his lowest number ever.
62% of voters think President Bush has leadership qualities.
57% of voters are uneasy with Kerry’s ability to handle a crisis.
If Kerry wins with numbers like these, voters will have a serious and instantaneous case of buyer's remorse.
Via PoliPundit.
UPDATE: Crush Kerry points out that, in the CBS/New York Times poll, 35 percent of those sampled were Democrats and 30 percent were Republicans. The last two polls from this organization used the same sample weights and showed the race tied. So it's not like the enemy wants to provide us with good news.
Horse hockey!
Same here. He sent me a reply to an email which stated, and I quote:"I respect your opinion, but Bush is gonna get creamed". This was during the 2000 race.
He does have an obvious burr up his rear about the Bush family. Frankly, I was concerned about the title of this article until I saw who wrote it.
I am so tired of reading Leboutillier crap
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