One more poll/projection thread and I'm gone postal....
Posted on 11/01/2004 10:53:25 AM PST by M 91 u2 K
High Turnout Means Kerry Victory John LeBoutillier Monday, Nov. 1, 2004 Beginning last spring I wrote of the theory of the Passion Differential - the difference between the anti-Bush forces and the pro-Bush forces. I added that the Democratic nominee was basically irrelevant to this race; that the anti-Bushies were creating a wave of support and all the Democratic nominee had to do was to climb aboard an imaginary surfboard and “ride that wave” to victory.
Well, we are now a day before the biggest election since the epic 1980 battle between the failed presidency of Jimmy Carter and the electoral tidal wave ushered in by his challenger, Ronald Reagan.
What is going to happen tomorrow?
A tsunami of new voters, young voters, recently registered-by-the-Democrat Party-and-George Soros voters, minority voters and unhappy-with-the direction-of-the-country voters is going to swell the voting lines all day tomorrow.
We are going to have an unprecedented turnout - the largest ever - and that is not good news for the GOP and President Bush.
The higher the turnout - and some estimate upward of 120 million voters - the better it is for Kerry because those new voters are coming to vote against President Bush.
How do we know this?
Early Voting numbers are at an all-time high. In Florida people are willing to wait 3 1/2 hours to vote on a Sunday!
Absentee ballot applications are at an all-time high. There is unprecedented interest and passion across the board for this election. All polls ask that question - and over 70% of voters this year claim to be paying “a lot of attention” to the race. Viewership for all 3 debates was substantially higher than for the 3 debates 4 years ago. The Democrats, ACT and their labor pals have a better get-out-the-vote operation than Bush and the GOP do. Polling of those who have already voted in Florida is decidedly anti-Bush; the same in Iowa where Kerry is leading 56-39 among those who have already voted.
Yes, early voting polls could be an aberration; but that is doubtful.
Plus the best pollster - John Zogby, who was the only correct pollster 4 years ago - now shows a Kerry surge in the Battleground states (except Ohio). Zogby predicts a Kerry victory tomorrow.
What indications to look for tomorrow?
Cable TV will have cameras positioned in key precincts around the country. If we see lines literally around the block, we will know that indeed the huge turnout is underway. And if it is, the race may not even be that close.
Exit polling will be done by the 5 TV networks - and the results will seep out by late afternoon (they always do).
Prediction: the anti-Bushies will defeat the pro-Bushies tomorrow night by 3 points in the popular vote and will garner over 280 electoral votes.
John Kerry - sitting atop the surfboard on this anti-Bush wave - will be the President-Elect.
Lets prove them all wrong and show that Pubbies can win with high voter turnout!
Bull. Kerry generates no enthusiasm among his supporters. Everywhere Bush goes, he's greeted like a rockstar. The "norm" cannot be used to assess this election.
does this guy ever have anything positive to contribute?
According to Jeb Bush in Florida, the high turnout is going for President Bush.
Does the writer think these people are "new voters" or over anxious voters? That makes a big difference, and I say they are over anxious.
Not this loozer again!
Lebooty-ay commentary always sounds as though
he has a personal axe to grind w/ Bushie.
MV
On the other hand, high turnout may also mean an incredibly energized Republican base - and that is what I am seeing.
Absolutely nothing. He has been anti-Bush from the moment he took office.
He said many positive things about Gore in 2000
Nonsense..
Pace University poll shows new voters leaning towards Bush 48-44.
Bush is going to get somewhere between 58 million and 61 million votes on Tuesday, more than enough to win.
"High voter turnout helps Dems" is a myth not supported by anything historical except media hype and spin.
They've created a myth that there is a "cap" on GOP voters. A myth that GOP voters turn out every single election year, and whether the GOP wins or not, depends on whether Democrats show up.
Complete and total bunk.
In modern times the repubs are the one who fail to turn out. If the turnout is high, it means they did.
...can't stand this guy. I remember writing him four years ago and he sent a very smug reply. He's a snob, in my opinion.
One more poll/projection thread and I'm gone postal....
LeBoutillier has been chipping away at President Bush since campaign 2000. He has a personal beef with the Bush family and will never miss an opportunity to write something negative about George W. Bush. He was wrong in 2000 about a Gore victory, wrong in 2002, and I hope he'll be wrong yet again tomorrow.
Totally discounting all the people who have become interested in politics since 9/11, who are PRO-BUSH. Also, the early voting numbers are disputable. In Michigan, Bush is leading by 15 in the early voting. Does that mean anything? I don't think so. We're going to win both Florida and Ohio tomorrow, and Kerry will be forced to win ALL of the following to win: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Hawaii.
newsmax is stale too. they have been treating zogby like a superstar which is ridiculous.
Leboutillier? sounds french.
Zogby is a Partisan progressive liberal hack just like the author at newsmax.
Nothing to see here, move along, it's all crap anyway.
Just get you, your family, friends, neighbors and others who are conservative to get out and vote.
Regards,
Sonar5
wrong. the Silent Majority will roar. The mouse from Mass will scurry back into his little hole.
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