In New Mexico, Bush Has Four Point Edge

Center for Public Opinion and Democracy ^ | 29OCT04 | Center for Public Opinion and Democracy

[familyop]

(CPOD) Oct. 29, 2004 – George W. Bush could carry the state of New Mexico in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 44 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Two per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, one per cent would support Michael Badnarik of the Libertarian Party, and four per cent are undecided. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Bush increased by two per cent since mid-August, while backing for Kerry dropped by the same margin. In early August, the Democrat held a seven per cent lead over the Republican.

New Mexico’s five electoral votes went to Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 election, who defeated Bush by 366 ballots. No Republican has carried the state since George H. Bush in 1988.

Polling Data

What candidate would you vote for in the 2004 U.S. presidential election?

	Oct. 26	Aug. 15	Aug. 4
George W. Bush (R)	48%	46%	43%
John Kerry (D)	44%	46%	50%
Ralph Nader (I)	2%	--	--
Michael Badnarik (L)	1%	4%	5%
Undecided	4%	3%	3%

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 500 likely New Mexico voters, conducted on Oct. 26, 2004. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Yee-ha!

[Coop]

Lookin' good.

[The_Republican]

Its NOT the voters of NEW Mexico that I worry about. Its the Voters from OLD Mexico, that have me nervous.

[Death and Taxes]

Remember what happened last time in NM: Bush won the state by 500 votes, until the Dems "found" an extra ballot box with 866 votes for Gore. Result: Gore won NM by 366 votes.

I'll withhold celebration until after Nov 2....

[chesty_puller]

Kinda makes you wonder what happened to the Michael Badnarik supporters? Did their cave collapse on them?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bush won the state by 500 votes, until the Dems "found" an extra ballot box with 866 votes for Gore. Result: Gore won NM by 366 votes."

---

Not exactly. Gore led after the initial tally, and the extra votes they found gave Bush the lead. But then they noticed that in a precinct in Dona Ana County an 866 (or somethng) for Gore had been misread as a 366, and when they added the 500 to Gore he took the lead. Bush didn't ask for a recount, since he didn't need NM's 5 EVs, so we'll never know who actually won the state. But Bush would have won by a recount-proof margin had there not been a freak snowstorm in SW New Mexico (part of the very-Republican "Little Texas" area).

[gswilder]

Look at all the new state polls today. Most trending Bush, and solidifying his lead in several Gore 2000 States. I still think Bush will win by a relatively easy margin. (7% and 320 EV's) Of course Kerry might pull out a slight win. I know the DU folks are happy about their "Pep conference talk" with the Kerry folks today. However, I wouldn't trade places in this race or flop the polls right now. And my guess is, the dems are still hoping Kerry will pull it off. (because they think Bush is stupid and the americans will throw him out) But I suspect many know its a long shot for Kerry to win right now. I think the OBL is big for Bush.

[Slings and Arrows]

SW New Mexico (part of the very-Republican "Little Texas" area).

SW or SE, and does that include Las Cruces?

[AuH2ORepublican]

"SW or SE, and does that include Las Cruces?"

---

OOPS! Southeast, of course, near Texas. Las Cruces, a college town and with a high Hispanic population, votes Democrat.

[Slings and Arrows]

Thanks - I figured. I used to live in Magdalena, and while Catron County and environs may be strongly Republican, there aren't exactly densely populated.

[Kuksool]

I find it amazing that Bush has an excellent chance of winning New Mexico. It is a state where whites are a minority. It must mean that Bush's Latino outreach is working.

[mlocher]

The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

i am glad he reminded me. go bush.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"It must mean that Bush's Latino outreach is working."

---

In 2000, Bush got like 40% of the Hispanic vote in TX but only like 30% in New Mexico. I've been saying since 2001 that Bush would carry NM in 2004 because when New Mexico Hispanics get to know him they would vote for him in Texas-style percentages. I think Bush will also do better than in 2000 among California Hispanics, even though they are more liberal than Hispanics in NM or certainly TX. The latest Field Poll has Bush down 7% in CA; I think Bush won't lose in CA by more than 5% and it will be in part because of his improvement among Hispanic voters. BTW, I bet a liberal acquaintance many months ago that Bush would carry Florida by a higher percentage than Kerry would carry CA by---for the first time in a while, I think I just might win that bet (I got 2:1 odds, too, so it will make it double the fun to rub Bush's victory in his face).

[Ciexyz]

fingers crossed.

[Kuksool]

A liberal co-worker told that even if 2004 is a strong Republican year, minorities will forever stay loyal to the RATS. She even envisioned a future Presidential ticket of Obama and Ken Salazar winning the White House.

However, I think there will be a re-alignment among minorites, esp among the younger ones, if Bush wins and the GOP gains seats in the Senate. Why? Because the RATS are shut out of the political process. Younger minorites will realize that you can't put all your eggs into one basket. They will figure out that if they want things done in their communities, then they must reach out to Republicans.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"However, I think there will be a re-alignment among minorites, esp among the younger ones"

---

I agree, and not just because they want to "play ball" with the Republicans who will control Congress. The Democrat Party no longer stands for the family values that are so important to blacks, Hispanics and Asians, and slowly but surely minority groups will start to swing towards the GOP. I think by 2006 we will find the GOP getting 25% of the black vote, 45% of the Hispanic vote (nationally, not just in a few states) and 50% of the Asian vote. And as I've stated ad nauseum, when the GOP is able to get 30% of the black vote, it will completely dismantle the Democrat Party, especially in the South, since Democrats won't be competitive in ANY Southern state and in many border and Midwestern states, and the only Southern congressional districts that the Democrats could be elected in would be black-majority districts (and even some black-majority and black-plurality districts would be winnable for the GOP).

[Theodore R.]

Could Bill Richardson be organizing out-of-country voters for KerryEdwards?

[Theodore R.]

No, haven't recent polls showed that younger voters are the most likely to support the KerryEdwards electors?

[WoodstockCat]

He might be but it seems that the crys of disenfranchisement are already being heard because of ID requirements.