Posted on 10/29/2004 4:37:16 AM PDT by RWR8189
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry moved into a dead heat with President Bush four days before a cliffhanger White House election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.
Bush and Kerry were tied at 47 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll as the Massachusetts senator gained two points on Bush. Bush led Kerry 48-46 percent on Thursday.
The deadlock sets up a frantic race to Tuesday's finish in another tight U.S. presidential election, with neither candidate able to establish a clear advantage or break 50 percent.
"The election is four days away and we are right back where we started, in a toss-up," pollster John Zogby said. "Kerry had a good day today."
He said Kerry had solidified his support among women, Catholics, singles, Hispanics and 18- to 24-year-olds, but had slipped slightly among black voters to about 82 percent.
Democrat Al Gore won more than 90 percent of the black vote against Bush in 2000, and weaker black support for Kerry or a low turnout could cripple the Democrat in several of the biggest battleground states.
Only 3 percent of likely voters remain undecided. At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by three points in the daily tracking poll.
The poll of 1,203 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Monday.
Bush gained ground in some of the critical swing states that will decide who accumulates the 270 electoral votes needed to win, leading in five of the 10 battleground states surveyed in a series of Reuters/Zogby state tracking polls.
Bush led in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico and Nevada, while Kerry was ahead in Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin. The crucial state of Pennsylvania was tied.
Bush gained a two-point edge in Michigan after being 10 points behind Kerry when the state tracking poll began on Sunday. Bush led by one point in Florida and Kerry had a three-point edge in Ohio. All three of those results were within the margin of error.
The national poll showed independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Gore to cost him the election in 2000, with slightly more than 1 percent.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.
By Monday Kerry will be leading by 3 pts. Ugh
ping
I always expected to show Kerry with a "surge" at some point anyway, especially after Novak posted that article saying that Zogby told him Bush would probably win. That may have ticked him off, and we know he wants Kerry to win. His "internals" always seem wacky. I don't believe Kerry has a chance if he is really only getting 82% of the black vote compared to Gore. Wait until we get confirmation of Kerry movement from the rest of the polls.
Yawn...so predictable..can't they ever give us credit for figuring them out?
Nah he wont. This is wishful thinking. Just look at the quote, "He had a good day today." One day doesn't change that much. Polls naturally fluctuate just according to their margin of error.
Yawn...so predictable..can't they ever give us credit for figuring them out?
Two weeks ago Zogby had Bush down by 10 in Michigan and indicated Michigan was not in play. Today, he has Bush up by two in Michigan. I wonder if Michigan is in play now Mr. Zogby?
Zogby is BS, a Dimwitocrat shill, he must also be drinking the sauce that he uses in his polls.
The left (Socialists) will try to influence the election by skewing the polls.
Keep in mind that in 2000 only two, (2) thats right only two polls were evn close to predicting the outcome.
If Kerry is only getting 82% of the black vote, there will be a huge Bush landslide to rival that of Reagan in '84.
Zogby is a lying lowlife. Forget about him!
the polls have to show "dead heat," "cliffhanger," etc. It's the only way to justify thousands of lawyers making mincemeat out of our republic for the sake of a very determined left wing.
If Bush pulls 20 per cent of the Black vote....wow!
Those state poll number make his whole poll crap.
I'd like to see Bush swamping these polls, but he ain't Reagan although kerry is Mondale. I stand by Cheney, 52-47. Kerry's got a ceiling, Bush has a higher one.
Bush wins..just under 300 evs.
Zogby says kerry 'improved' women etc..not by how much. I'm tellin ya, the internals favor Bush. You can't have Gore +13 women and Bush +13 men in 2000 and then have close election only to find Bush spliting women in 2004 and still leading men +13 or so and have the same closeness. Boggles my mind.
Media's only responsibility is to deliver an audience to the advertiser
Got to keep the audience stirred up as much as possible....
How convenient. They can skate out of having to predict who will win this way.
Look at this chart and relax:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html
I don't believe Kerry has a chance if he is really only getting 82% of the black vote
The black vote is always safely Democrat; don't believe those who say GWB has made inroads into the "black vote."
They can say it was a toss-up until the election and then at the last minute voters broke for (insert name here) None of these guys wants to be ridiculed as getting it wrong. Worthless.
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