Bush/Kerry Tied in "Blue" or Gore States, Bush Crushes Gender Gap... (Gallup Internals)

Gallup News Service ^ | September 28, 2004

[RWR8189]

LATEST SNAPSHOTT

% GEORGE W. BUSH	52
% JOHN KERRY	44
Sept. 24-26, 2004 Based on Likely Voters

Bush now has a commanding 62%-34% lead in the Red States, a very healthy 50%-43% lead in the Battleground states, and here's the kicker, Bush and Kerry are now tied 49%-49% in the Blue "Gore States"!!  Can you say landslide?

This just keeps getting better, not only does Bush take the lead among independents, he has a commanding lead in the women's vote, 53%-42% in favor of President Bush!  The gender gap is a thing of the past!

[RWR8189]

Based on registered voters
	Kerry	Bush	Neither (vol.)	Other (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Bush (Red) States
2004 Sep 24-26	34	62	2	--	2
2004 Sep 13-15	39	56	2	*	3
2004 Sep 3-5	42	55	2	*	1
Gore (Blue) States
2004 Sep 24-26	49	49	1	--	1
2004 Sep 13-15	52	44	1	1	3
2004 Sep 3-5	52	45	2	--	3
Up For Grab States
2004 Sep 24-26	43	50	3	--	4
2004 Sep 13-15	43	54	2	--	1
2004 Sep 3-5	47	46	4	--	3

 

Based on Registered Voters

	Sep 24-26		Sep 13-15		Sep 3-5		Aug 23-25
	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry	Bush
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	41	54	44	52	48	49	48	47
Gender
Men	40	56	40	56	45	52	45	51
Women	42	53	47	49	50	46	51	44
Race
Whites	36	60	40	57	42	55	42	54
Non-whites	62	30	63	31	69	25	72	23
Age
18-49	40	56	41	54	48	48	48	47
50-64	47	48	48	50	47	48	44	51
65+	41	55	46	48	48	50	50	45
Region
East	51	46	52	44	51	45	54	39
Midwest	39	54	43	51	47	48	48	45
South	39	57	37	60	45	52	40	56
West	38	59	48	49	49	48	53	45
Education
Post-graduate	51	45	55	43	52	44	54	40
College graduate	39	58	38	57	40	58	56	42
Some college	40	57	41	53	45	50	41	54
High school or less	39	54	44	53	51	47	48	47
Income
$75,000 or more	37	59	40	58	43	55	41	56
$50,000-$74,999	43	55	45	54	44	53	43	54
$30,000-$49,999	42	55	44	53	54	42	47	48
Less than $30,000	46	47	48	44	51	43	59	35
Ideology
Conservative	21	75	15	83	24	74	20	75
Moderate	49	47	57	38	56	40	56	38
Liberal	85	13	81	16	84	13	85	12
Partisanship
Republicans	6	93	4	94	7	90	9	89
Independents	46	48	50	43	49	46	50	39
Democrats	85	10	85	11	90	7	90	8

Based on Registered Voters

	September 24-26			September 3-5			August 23-25
	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Total	42	53	3	46	48	4	46	46	4
Gender
Men	39	55	4	43	51	5	42	51	4
Women	43	51	3	48	46	3	49	42	4
Race
Whites	35	60	3	40	55	3	40	52	4
Non-whites	65	28	4	68	24	6	69	22	3
Age
18-49	40	55	4	45	48	5	45	46	5
50-64	46	48	3	46	48	3	44	50	4
65+	41	55	3	47	49	1	49	45	1
Region
East	50	45	3	48	46	3	51	39	5
Midwest	42	52	3	45	49	4	49	43	4
South	38	56	2	43	51	4	38	56	1
West	37	58	4	47	47	5	49	42	8
Education
Post-graduate	51	43	4	51	44	1	54	41	3
College graduate	39	58	2	38	58	3	53	41	2
Some college	39	56	3	46	50	3	42	50	4
High school or less	40	54	3	46	46	6	43	47	5
Income
$75,000 or more	37	58	2	43	54	2	40	57	2
$50,000-$74,999	41	54	3	41	54	4	40	51	7
$30,000-$49,999	42	54	3	52	41	6	45	48	3
Less than $30,000	47	45	5	49	43	5	56	33	5
Ideology
Conservative	22	75	1	22	74	4	20	74	3
Moderate	49	44	4	54	40	3	55	37	3
Liberal	83	12	5	82	10	4	78	11	9
Partisanship
Republicans	7	92	*	6	91	2	9	88	2
Independents	46	45	6	43	44	8	46	37	8
Democrats	84	10	4	90	7	2	88	8	2

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[RWR8189]

Internals are in this thread.

[RWR8189]

Check out the internals

[bellevuesbest]

[JLS]

This GOP bigger lead with RVs makes me think that 9-11 really had an effect on the publics perception of the two parties. Throw in the much bigger GOP self identification and this could be a really surprising election to some.

[SteveMcKing]

Who wants to bet that some liberals will riot, smash people's cars, and start fires when they lose?

[Piranha]

I understand that Richard Nixon got the majority of the women's vote in 1960 when he ran against John F. Kennedy, the good-looking Democrat who was a naval war hero. In fact, women voted more predominantly Republican up through the 1960 election. http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20031113-090231-4928r

[Mister Baredog]

I can wait to read Karl Rove's next book, the "evil" genious. Strategery in action! The DUmmies have seriesly misunderestimated GWB.

I sooooooo look foreward to the faces of such notables as Franken, Garafalo, Moore, Chirac, Kofi, and a miriad of others on NOV 3!

[Paleo Conservative]

In fact, women voted more predominantly Republican up through the 1960 election.

Fewer adult women were single back then.

[Retief]

I certainly hope it's a landslide. Maybe that will convince the Dems to reform and get rid of the wackos, like Michael Moore. Nothing like a crushing defeat to convince the Dems they've been on the wrong path and that it's time to either reform or disappear as a credible political party.

In addition, a landslide will put the fear of God (or the GOP) into America's enemies. GWB will have a mandate, and comfortable majorities in both houses of congress, so when it's time to take the nukes away from Iran, there won't be a lot of whining about collateral damage.

[spokeshave]

"Who wants to bet that some liberals will riot, smash people's cars, and start fires when they lose?"

Let them try...particularly in "carry" states.....

[dagogo redux]

I believe we need to see the internals on that!

[dvwjr]

Thanks again!

I'll see what I can get posted. Be out of town until Thursday, so any Gallup poll numbers R/D/I breakdowns may be delayed... I'll see if the three-way Bush/Kerry/Nader numbers for September 3-5 change my two-way analysis R/D/I numbers.


dvwjr

[TomasUSMC]

If we win Pennslyvania and keep everything else we won in 2000, it will be over by the time polls close in the eastern time zone. Then we could see a domino effect, including 5 senate seats picked up, providing that the dems get demoralized and our people keep on bringing it on home.

[blondee123]

I understand that Richard Nixon got the majority of the women's vote in 1960 when he ran against John F. Kennedy, the good-looking Democrat who was a naval war hero.

Well, this new JFK is NOT good looking (actually looks rather pale & ill) nor is he a military HERO!!

[KAUAIBOUND]

The most interesting internal is the voters with post-graduate education voting 51-45 for Kerry - a good example of overeducated morons. Most of them probably are social workers brainwashed in various college liberal arts programs or are attorneys or teachers. Not coincidentally, these are the parasitic enablers of underclass non-achievement, dedicated to maintaining the status quo and continuing their government checks.

[rhinohunter]

The Gallup numbers sure have been more friendly to Bush than any other polls for these past few weeks. Surprising, since Gallup is probably the most mainstream of all the polling outfits. Certainly will be interesting to see which one is correct. But of course, some organizations, like ZogSauce, won't release their REAL numbers until the weekend before the election.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Keep working like we're 10 points behind, people...Voter Fraud by Democrats can make up lots of ballots cast by the living.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Right. The Democrat Party Operatives' Voter Fraud Machine in Chicago was partially responsible for John Kennedy's win.