If the Primary Were Held Today,
for Whom Would You Vote?
Posted on 01/24/2004 3:52:25 PM PST by Timesink
POLL ANALYSES
PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup New Hampshire tracking poll results show Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry continuing to have a healthy lead over the rest of the field. According to the poll, which includes interviews conducted Wednesday night through Friday night, 35% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would vote for Kerry if the primary election were held today. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is second with 23%. The gap between Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark has widened in the latest poll, from five points to nine points, with Clark now at 14%. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (11%) and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (10%) are vying with Clark for third place.
| Likely New Hampshire Voters: If the Primary Were Held Today, for Whom Would You Vote? |
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In the initial phase of this tracking poll, conducted before the Iowa caucuses, Dean led Kerry by 32% to 25%. Momentum quickly shifted to Kerry following his surprise win in Iowa, and Kerry has led Dean by at least 10 points in each individual night of interviewing after Iowa. Support for Dean has now appeared to stabilize after his immediate post-Iowa drop, suggesting the effects of the negative publicity he received following his third-place finish in Iowa and his often-criticized address to his supporters there may have run their course.
At the same time, support for Clark has been gradually diminishing. His 14% share of support among likely voters is his lowest so far in the New Hampshire tracking poll, and represents an erosion of one-third of his support compared with his 21% score in the initial tracking poll. Clark received some criticism for his performance in Thursday's debate. Aside from the debate, some have wondered what effect Kerry's performance in Iowa may have had on Clark's candidacy, since many previously considered Clark to be the likely alternative to presumptive front-runner Dean -- a position Kerry may now have seized. Clark's higher standing in the initial tracking poll may also stem from his decision not to contest Iowa, thus allowing him to focus almost all of his time on New Hampshire, while the other candidates (aside from Lieberman) were campaigning in Iowa.
Edwards' strong showing in Iowa apparently did not do much to boost his immediate fortunes in New Hampshire. The North Carolina senator's support in the Granite State has risen to only the low double digits.
This latest poll marks the first time Lieberman has reached double digits.
With just three days left until ballots are cast in the primary, 63% of likely primary voters say they are certain to support their current candidate of choice, while slightly more than one in three, 36%, leave open the possibility of changing their minds.
Among the group of likely voters who indicate they have made up their minds, 40% say they will support Kerry, 26% Dean, 11% Clark, 11% Edwards, and 10% Lieberman.
Survey Methods
New Hampshire tracking results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 280 New Hampshire residents per night who say they plan to vote in the Democratic Primary on Jan. 27. Results are reported in three-day rolling averages.
The most recent results are based on interviews conducted Jan. 21-23, 2004 with 641 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Democratic primary. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±4 percentage points.
The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The likely voter results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 516).
All results reported here are based on likely voters.
Number of Interviews |
||||
Plan to vote in |
Likely |
Margin of error, |
||
|
2004 Jan 21-23 |
853 |
641 |
±4 |
|
|
2004 Jan 20-22 |
848 |
641 |
±4 |
|
|
2004 Jan 19-21 |
852 |
646 |
±4 |
|
|
2004 Jan 18-20 |
849 |
644 |
±4 |
|
|
2004 Jan 17-19 ^ |
854 |
657 |
±4 |
|
|
^ |
NOTE: All interviews conducted on Jan.19 were completed before the results of the Iowa caucuses were reported. |
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2. Suppose the Democratic primary for president were being held today. If you had to choose among the following candidates, which candidate would you vote for? [ROTATED: John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, or Wesley Clark]
2A. As of today, to which Democratic candidate do you lean most?
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|
|
|
|
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None/ other/ no opinion |
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|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 21-23 |
35 |
23 |
14 |
11 |
10 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 20-22 |
34 |
22 |
17 |
12 |
8 |
3 |
* |
4 |
|
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 19-21 ^ |
30 |
25 |
18 |
11 |
8 |
4 |
* |
4 |
|
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 18-20 ^ |
28 |
30 |
19 |
9 |
8 |
2 |
* |
4 |
|
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 17-19 ^ |
25 |
32 |
21 |
7 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
|
|
^ |
Dick Gephardt dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination on Jan. 20 and his name was removed from this question beginning with that date's interviewing. For data collected on Jan. 17, 18, and 19, Gephardt voters' second choice is substituted. Gephardt received 4% of the vote in the Jan. 17-19 poll. |
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(LV) Likely voters |
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* Less than 0.5% |
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3. Are you certain to vote for -- [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q.2] -- in the primary election, or do you think you might change your mind?
Certain to vote for |
Might change mind |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 21-23 |
63 |
36 |
1 |
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 20-22 |
62 |
37 |
1 |
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 19-21 |
63 |
36 |
1 |
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 18-20 |
64 |
35 |
1 |
|
(LV) 2004 Jan 17-19 |
62 |
37 |
1 |
|
(LV) Likely voters |
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New Hampshire Democratic Presidential PrimaryThe 2002 elections treated Republicans in New Hampshire well. Not since 1994 have Republicans dominated an election as they did last year, sweeping top offices and making big gains in both houses of the Legislature. Part of the Republican sweep in 2002, Republican Gov. Craig Benson's anti-tax platform easily trumped Democrat Mark Fernald. Benson will seek a second term in 2004. Republican Sen. Judd Gregg also faces re-election for the seat he has held since 1992... Benson and the Legislature clashed when he vetoed the budget this past year. He said he felt it spent too much money and would result in an income tax... The eventual budget Benson did sign increased spending by roughly 8 percent over two years, when federal money, gasoline taxes and other funding sources are included. In the 2002 elections, Republican Rep. John E. Sununu led a statewide GOP rout by narrowly defeating Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen in the Senate race. Shaheen has since been named national chairwoman of Democrat John Kerry's presidential campaign. In the House races, moderate Republican Jeb Bradley defeated Democrat Martha Fuller to win the seat which Sununu gave up to run for the Senate.
Washington Post
Updated 1/28/04 6:37 PM ET
100% Precincts Reportingdeclared winner
Candidates Votes % 84,229 38% Howard Dean
57,788 26% 27,254 12% 26,416 12% 18,829 9% 3,104 1% 398 0% 345 0% 115 0% 92 0% 88 0% 82 0% 80 0% 77 0% 72 0% 55 0% 54 0% 47 0% 41 0% 31 0% 15 0% 11 0% 10 0% 7 0% 6 0% EDITOR'S NOTE: WI = Write-in Candidate
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