Posted on 11/03/2016 9:54:58 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Late polling traditionally tightens in presidential races, as propagandistic polls with samples biased toward one candidate or another start to refine their models in order to be not too far off from the final vote counts.
What is unusual, maybe even unprecedented, is the volume of negative feelings toward both leading candidates. This makes turnout even more crucial than usual, for there is an excellent chance that numbers of people will fail to rouse themselves sufficiently to vote for a candidate they are not terribly enthusiastic over.
And that is why an item from this morning’s Rasmussen Reports is so significant. Rasmussen finding an advantage for Trump is not unexpected. So the most prominent finding may not make much of an impression on the Hillary camp and its media friends:
Republican Donald Trump has a three-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ White House Watch survey.
Ho-hum, Rasmussen has had Trump in the lead before.
BUT:
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).
Ten points is way over a sampling or a model error. There is a good chance a thick slice of the uncertain voters will stay home....
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Amazing considering the mainstream media is blacking out all of the WikiLeaks and Clinton foundation FBI stuff. So half the country is not getting this news. Scumbags in the media!
Encouraging news.
I have to give credit to Rush Limbaugh for predicting this.
He said 1-2 months ago, when the MSM (and their polls) claimed it was all over for Trump and Hillary could coast to victory - that pollsters are indeed leftist political hacks who will rig polls to influence the vote - up to a point.
They also want (and need for their business survival) to have a good track record - so that by the final week, all these corrupted pollsters would have to start reflecting the truth, otherwise, they would just look stupid.
You are now seeing that adjustment.
Early voting for the 1st time in my life tomorrow.
If the uncertain voters did vote, that plus the certain voters, still puts Mr. Trump ahead.
I won't vote early, because I know how election officials are able to make the "wrong" early ballots disappear.
Party IDs for the 88%?
If you want to rub it in to any Hillary supporters you know, ask how they feel about getting aborted a week before the due date.
“Bombshell”
**Drink**
Conservative Journalist/bloggers are using that word almost as much as Liberal Journalist/bloggers used the word “Unexpected” to describe bad economic news.
Trump gets the red-blooded, patriotic, pro-America votes; Clinton gets the maniacle, homocidal psychopath criminal vote; Johnson gets the “dumb-as-a-rock” pot head vote; Stein, the “dumb-as-a-rock” but can find the polling place vote!
I’ve said that for years. The pollsters are now switching from influence mode to accuracy mode. Noone cares what the polls said three weeks prior, they will be judged on how closely they predicted the actual vote. Pundits too. No one wants to be the new Dick Morris.
“Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).
“Ten points is way over a sampling or a model error. There is a good chance a thick slice of the uncertain voters will stay home. And a tie there for Hillary will not solve her ten-point gap among those who will vote.”
There are two major points here: The shy Trump supporters from BOTH Parties we know are out there and the long standing established trend that undecideds break for the challenger. Clinton has to be seen as the incumbent. Usually this break is 2 to 1 but it has been reported in another survey that it is “only” breaking 5.7 to 3.5 in Trump’s favor. Nevertheless this is still a huge boost to Trump as he will enjoy a net plus 2.2% extra votes.
It was a term for hot starlets in days of yore.
I think many of the so called uncertain voters are just people who do not want to say who they will vote for.
Don’t forget BOOM and SMOKING GUN! But, yes, Bombshell needs to be retired.
As of today (a few minutes ago) 4,329 Republican have cast early ballots. We lead the Dems by 1,732, who have a total of 2,597 early voters. Of the Independents or others 1,052 have voted early.
The tally is an active tally that changes periodically. In fact it changed while I was composing this message.
Hillary would have to take almost all of the uncertain voters to pull ahead of Trump.
Just went to the state site, which is quoted frequently here.
The State of Florida has my county reporting a total of 981 Republicans and 387 Democrat early voters.
So the state site is not up to date.
I believe you will find that just like in my county the rst of Florida’s turnout is big, especially the Florida Republican vote.
I really hate it when FOX reports a percentage of Republican voting for Hillary. How would they ever know, except by polling, and obviously their polling is in error.
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