Posted on 03/09/2016 2:52:45 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
I have performed some math showing Polls versus Results
Ted Cruz has been dominating the polls recently. Every time the polls say he is going to perform X, he outdoes them with two minor exceptions.
(GRAPH-AT-LINK)
As seen in the graphic above Ted Cruz has been outdoing the Republican Polls by 15% or higher on average. In two cases we could not identify how much higher because of lack of Polls, these are Hawaii and Maine. However an examination of his wins shows either an extreme bias in the polls, or that the vote is always breaking for one candidate when it comes time to pull the lever.
An example of some of the differences, these are how much higher Ted Cruz did in actual results above the polls (RCP Average, last month or so only used)
Idaho 26.40%
Mississippi 19.30%
Kansas 19.20%
Kentucky 16.70%
Oklahoma 14.10%
Alaska 12.40%
Louisiana 10.10%
I would say it is probably fair that if it was polled Maine would be in that list as well.
In a previous effort I identified that 33% of Democrats in S. Carolina voted in the Republican Primary. This trend in Open Primaries has continued unabated by all appearances. Ted Cruz continues to dominate in closed Primaries after all....
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
Very happy that Cruz “surges” to bigger delegate deficits. Trump 1/3 of the way and ahead of pace, Cruz further behind the pace.
It make sense that if we can declare Rubio the winner for being in third place we can also declare Cruz the winner for being in second place.
The only one we CANNOT declare a winner is Trump, in first place.
Red State = Certified Dellisional
Trump EXPANDED his lead to the biggest lead this entire Primary in Delegates.
Trump has 99 more Delegates than Cruz.
If you torture the data long enough and hard enough, it will eventually confess what you want it to.
Polls are polls and while he has outperformed the polls, he isn’t winning in the delegate race. That gap still grows.
The hopelessly optimistic might claim falling over a cliff is a ‘surge’ because it produces a rapid increase in speed. Delegates and Wins!
You don’t seem to be including the ones where he did worse than expected by the polls.
I have not seen any delegates from Hawaii coming out yet, should give Trump an extra 12 or so out of 19?
And people buy this “logic”.
I didn’t write the article.
Consider my comment addressed to the author of the article.
Good catch!
So that should put Trump over 100 then.
And the second and third place trophies are bigger and shinier!!
Could be negated or countered if Cruz somehow manages to convince central and northern Florida to follow his master plan. Rubio will get the south i have a feeling, wasted votes though. He is absolute toast now, got zilch last night. Only saving grace are the voters that have already voted for him, must be a LOT of voter remorse in Florida right now.
Poll measure support not turnout
Cruz has done a better job of getting voters to the polls or caucus
Bible wavin’, Lyin’ Ted surge!
Right now, Trump got three out of the four states. He’s going to wind up with more delegates than Cruz, but not more delegates than Cruz+Kasich.
Starting March 15, with winner-take-all, Trump’s delegate lead will widen.
Cruz does not currently look like he will win. The most Cruz can do now is prevent Trump from getting a delegate majority, and thus throw the nomination to Romney in a brokered convention.
I’m getting a vague picture that it won’t be Romney, he is a football fake play, it will be bringing Jeb Bush back into the game.
The military loves Trump and there are a lot of military personal all over Northern Florida from Pensacola to Jacksonville.
Plus Florida loves winners. Just look at the way they compete nation wide in football. I see the momentum towards Trump.
I like Cruz but this cheerleader needs a dose of reality.
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