Posted on 10/17/2012 3:12:12 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
You need to read way, way, way down into this National Journal piece to find the key bit, but it’s worth it. Says Jay Cost, “I’ve never seen anybody bury a lede like Major Garrett here.”
Let’s bring this treasure chest up to the surface:
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, from CNN’s Peter Hamby:
Peter Hamby✔ @PeterHambyCNN
The buzz from Columbus: Ohio race was reset by Romney's first debate (and he may have even been up heading into debate #2)
17 Oct 12 Reply Retweet Favorite
It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.
Via Gateway Pundit, here’s Karl Rove with a fun fact about that blockbuster Gallup poll today. The most important set of polls in the race thus far, I think, will be the next ones out of Ohio incorporating reaction to last night’s debate. I don’t expect much to change, but if one candidate suddenly picks up a few points, the path-to-270 strategizing is going to change instantly, and maybe dramatically.
Update: Changed the headline from “backing away from” to “turning grim on.” Garrett’s piece implies that Team O might cut those states loose, but doesn’t cite anyone clearly saying that. Read between the lines, though.
(VIDEO AT LINK)
but but Intrade and Nate Silver told me that Obama was going to win!
Part of me thinks at this point Obama is only concerned about base turnout so he doesn’t get humiliated losing states like Oregon in landslide.
If so, I don't think theres any way Obama can reverse the trend. He's toast.
Here in NC, I hear an ad about the 47% on the radio almost every 15 mins. Very decieving ad since I know the real story due to the NON-MSM. At the end he says, “I`m Barack Obama, candidate for president, and I approved this message.” LOLOLOLOLOL...He wants people to forget he has been president for the last four years. It`s gonna be his first term!!....CANDIDATE!!!! LOLOLOL.
Kimball Political Consulting Results for 10-12, 10-13 VA Poll (Romney 54%, Obama 43%)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/2945943/posts
[EXCLUSIVE] 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote, according to Famous U of Colorado model
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2945881/posts
Poll: Romney Has Large Lead In Rural Swing Counties
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2945678/posts
ROMNEY 55%, OBAMA 42% — QSN DTP 10/15
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2945041/posts
The sad thing is that George McGovern would not have been as terrible in our White House as the current occupant. It’s a shame today’s voters are neither as smart nor as patriotic as those from 1972.
That was the Depression era/World War II/Korean War generation mostly. They’re almost all gone now. If they’d still been around, an Obama candidacy would have been a sad joke, as would Hillary.
1. He wins Ohio.
2. He loses Ohio, but he wins Wisconsin and any one of Iowa, New Hampshire, or Nevada.
3. He loses both Ohio and Wisconsin but wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
4. He loses Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire but wins Nevada and Iowa and one of Maine's electoral votes (and gets all of Nebraska's electoral votes).
I think Paul rhyne needs to hang out in IA, OH, and Wis
I know that it is still unlikely but my relatives in Pennsylvania say that they are not seeing nearly as many D signs as R in their travels around the state. If Obama loses PA at 7PM, it will be a very long night at the White House and that big party on November 7th - Michelle will not be very cheerful!
As for Ohio, it appears to be VERY competitive!
We will know the race is won when Romney or Ryan start appearing in states that are safe in the race for President but also have competetive Senate races: Arizona, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, Connecticut, and (possibly) New Jersey.
I’m in central rural Virginia. The area is completely carpeted with Romney/Ryan signs, including the huge ones. I have never seen as many campaign signs in an election year. You literally cannot turn your head without seeing the double R logo.
“If this report is true, Romney wins under the following scenarios:
...”
If the report holds true, Romney is at 262. So he wins if
1.He wins Ohio.
2.He wins Wisconsin.
3.He wins 2 out of 3 of New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada.
4.He wins either Iowa or Nevada + 1 electoral vote from Maine (assuming he gets the at large Nebraska EV, and assuming he wins a tie of 269-269 based on a GOP house).
I wonder what his chances are in for that Maine EV. Wonder if they’re running any ads in Maine?
I saw a poll the other day that had Romney up in ME-01.
“The sad thing is that George McGovern would not have been as terrible in our White House as the current occupant. It’s a shame today’s voters are neither as smart nor as patriotic as those from 1972.”
He would have been pretty terrible. You could regard Obama as McGovern with a tan.
“Zero has zero chance here in NC. Pat McCrory is up 14% in the governors race in the polls, I expect Romney to do almost as good here. I’ve been saying 2008 was a fluke here, there is no way the teleprompter in chief would win this state this time around.”
You are TOTALLY RIGHT. 2008 was an outlier - McCain had done all he could to alienate the Republican base (to the point of telling them to shut up when they mentioned Obama’s middle name). Well, it’s 2012, and the first thing that Obama did in office was alienate the White voter - with that racial crap in MA. He did fine holding his black base, but he gave up on the middle and now people are focusing on the election - and they’ve had enough of him.
As to NC and Virginia, for that matter - they were NEVER in play - due to their still-conservative majorities. I’ve been saying that for months, even when the polls looked bad. The problem with that polling was that people weren’t focusing. It’s surprising that Obama’s campaign was stupid enough to keep spending money there. They should have been covering the more competitive states more. We can only thank their stupid advisory who went for those states - he did Romney a HUGE favor.
I’m in Fairfax county near DC. Within 5-10 miles of me the signs Romney/Obama signs appear fairly equally. Some neighborhoods will have a lot of Romney signs. Other neighborhoods will have a lot of Obama signs.
Fairfax country broke wide for Obama in 2008. In 2012 it will be close one way or the other.
Romney will win VA because because he won’t get a big advantage out of the populous counties around DC and Norfolk and because the rural counties will deliver overwhelming votes in Romney’s favor.
Basically the vote will be a repeat of the wave election of 2010. There was something like a 20% swing among independents. This time Obama’s support will be down among all groups. Even blacks. Instead of getting 95% of the black vote. Obama may get 90% plus another 10% won’t vote because their pastors tell them don’t vote for Obama because of the homosexual biz.(They won’t be able to bring themselves to vote for Romney so they’ll just stay away from the poles.)
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