GOP-Leaning Majority Seen Fading in U.S.

Washington Post ^ | June 14th, 2009 | Dan Balz

[MadIsh32]

There has been much chatter about who now speaks for the Republican Party and whether the GOP has a message or agenda to combat President Obama's popularity. Those questions are important to the party's future, but the most serious problem remains the deeper demographic and political forces at work in the country.

For the past few months, political analysts and demographers have been poring over the results of the 2008 election and comparing them with presidential results from the last two decades. From whatever angle of their approach -- age, race, economic status, geography -- they have come to a remarkably similar conclusion. Almost all indicators are pressing the Republicans into minority status.

Republicans are still capable of winning individual elections, but until they find a way to reverse or at least minimize these broader changes in the country, their chances of returning to majority status will be severely reduced.

Democrats have now won the popular vote in four of the last five elections, though in one case (2000) they did not end up in the White House. In years when they have also won the electoral vote, Democrats have wracked up sizeable margins. Obama bested John McCain 365-173 and Bill Clinton's two victories were in the same range. George W. Bush's two electoral college victories were narrow; he won just 271 votes in the disputed election of 2000 and 286 in his 2004 reelection.

What has brought this about? It's not just one thing, it's everything. Start with the Democrats success in the suburbs. Lang's formula is that demography and density have combined to help the Democrats. The Democrats now dominate not just the cities but the urbanized suburbs that contained the largest share of the suburban population in America.

[MadIsh32]

I am kind of a doom and gloomer. Without Republicans being able to a) articulate conservative principles in language that people want to hear and b) offering conservative solutions to 21st century issues such as health care, transportation, and education, the GOP will be a minority party for the better part of 2 generations.

The 2 keys in my opinion are A) always stand for conservative principles and B) move away from being perceived as the party of the rich and corporations and truly become the party of the small business owner

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

Liberal media agonizing over the GOP again. Just goes to show you that liberal ideas don’t work, so they want to snuff out conservatism in the GOP as soon as possible.

[Para-Ord.45]

Yup.

GOP=RIP

When faced with a choice between a REAL liberal and a liberal they`ll vote for the real one most of the time.

Republican party is dead, D-E-A-D dead.

What fool will vote for the guy who says, “ Yeah but we won`t spend AS much as them. And all those unconstitutional govt departments like HUD,EDUCATION,EPA ,etc, we`ll keep those too, that`s power.”

[perfect_rovian_storm]

This country doesn’t have 2 generations left in it’s current form if our course isn’t just stopped but reversed.

If the GOP can’t get it together, there will be secession and war in the coming years. Possibly even worse than that. It may happen even if the GOP actually does get it together.

[A_Former_Democrat]

I agree with much of your post but I think the Democrats will make such a mess of things to lose support. Just look at wherever they’re in charge . . . absolute disaster. This notion that we can play nice with our enemies and they won’t take advantage is naive. Once we get hit again, lots of lemmings will wake up.

[MadIsh32]

Well right now I don’t see much evidence of the GOP “getting it together”

The reason BHO is beating the GOP and the right at the current moment. He uses the power of words to push a dangerous agenda

We have forgotten how to use language in politics

Reagan understood it better then any conservative before or after him

[ABQHispConservative]

A little early for this type of stories. I had expected something like this next year.

[Ken522]

This is a screamer:

Obama bested John McCain 365-173 and Bill Clinton's two victories were in the same range. George W. Bush's two electoral college victories were narrow; he won just 271 votes in the disputed election of 2000 and 286 in his 2004 reelection.

So 0bama's electoral margin was 192 - and former-President Bush's margins were 271 and 286 ... say, exactly who had a greater margin of victory?

[MadIsh32]

I certainly hope that people start to wake up.

But to be honest, I simply don’t see it. Not with identity politics run amok. Not with the utopias of socialism being sold to the public everyday in the media

[MadIsh32]

Obama did electorally

Bush only had a 6 electoral vote victory in 2000, and I think 26 in 2004?

Meanwhile Obama pretty much doubled up McCain

[Puppage]

Meanwhile Obama pretty much doubled up McCain

My old sneakers in the closet could have done the same to McCain.

[Minipax]

The Founding Fathers were wise enough to not enfranchise certain people. Once we did, the days of a functioning republic were numbered. There is no stopping the change in the demographics of the voting population.

[RocketMan1]

(1) The Press is merely showing their rah-rah 0sama0bama/pro-Statist colors by acting all “befuddled” and “ohmygawd” about the Republican Party not having a “frontrunner” just 7 months after a Presidential election. Like the ‘Rats had THEIR “frontrunner” at this point in ‘01 and ‘07!

(and if ANYONE thinks that Nazi “Stretch” Pelousy and Harry “We’ve Lost” Reidiculous were the ‘Rats Party leaders, their retarded! Stretch and Reidiculous are merely the result of RINOs screwing the Republican Party into the ground!)

(2) It IS clear that the Republican Party is in the midst of determining its future. It is the RINOs (AKA Juan McCain, etc) versus the soul of the Republican Party .. the true Conservatives, who haven’t been in power since the late ‘90s! Failure for the Republican Party to once again become the polar opposite to 0sama0bamadingdong .. by making a hard Right turn to Conservatism (smaller gubmint/lower taxes/less regulation) .. is the true determinant of the longevity of the Republican Party!

The current state of the Republicans is exactly the same at this point as the ‘Rats at this point in ‘01 and ‘07. **NO** news there!

[truthguy]

I'm pessimistic as well for the future of the country. It isn't just Obama although he is the final result of a process that's been going on since the mid 1960's.

The demographics are moving to a more third world country. If you look at the politics of those who have emigrated to the US over the past 40 years you will see a real trend toward statist policies. These newcomers are tailor made Democrats-ready and willing to receive benefits from the state at someone else's expense. Yes we have imported our own demise. This is the result of a number of factors. But the 1965 Immigration Reform act is probably the one factor that stands out. Yes the Democrats will outnumber us with massive immigration and the higher birthrates of the irresponsible in the society. Now couple this up with tens of millions of illegals whose children WILL BE CITIZENS and you have the makings of a disaster. Demographics is destiny and demographics are working against the forces of freedom.

You have to have a certain mind set or temperment to have a democratic republic. The people who are coming to our shores DO NOT have this temperment or mind set. They WANT benefits from the state at the expense of others. We are in real trouble.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

It isn’t just language. They are so stymied by the press that they are afraid to believe in anything conservative.

I hope that the libertarians start following Peter Schiff’s advice and start taking over the Republican party. Especially in blue states. The press and the leftists are completely clueless how to deal with libertarians. Start talking about freedom and common sense and economics and they’re totally stymied.

Stop running ‘pro-choice Republicans’ and start running ‘I don’t give a damn about social issues’ Republicans who will still vote for originalist judges because of their libertarian beliefs.

THAT is change I can believe in.

Here’s a video of his speech:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x13VYMLfDw

[trumandogz]

"There's just not enough rural folks and small city people left in America in the key states that determine the electoral college to offset that difference," Lang said. "You're out of people."

With suburban voters trending Democrat, this will be a tough trend to overcome, especially suburban women who seem to like Nanny State legislation. There is also a demographic shift of minorities moving to the suburbs as YUPPIES move into urban areas.

The most important is the rising share of the vote accounted for by minorities. Whites accounted for just 76 percent of the overall electorate last November, down from 85 percent in 1988.

The major problem here is Texas, which is seeing an the Hispanic population increase and an influx of white Californians, both who vote Democrat. If these trends continue, Texas will be a Democrat state by 2020 and the Electoral College math gets very difficult for the GOP.

The last election saw more than two million additional African American voters, about two million more Hispanic voters and about one million more Asian American voters.

How does the GOP appeal to these voters and not abandon its principles?

[MadIsh32]

“How does the GOP appeal to these voters and not abandon its principles?”

Easy, find where we have common ground with these people

There are more black and hispanic small business owners then ever before

Both groups do have a so-con streak as well.

Along with that, blacks in particular are big supporters of school vouchers

As I say, focus on small business, small business, small business

[perfect_rovian_storm]

See post #15.

[MadIsh32]

Peter Schiff is simply awesome. He is the example of what the GOP and conservatives MUST do to start winning again.

[ChrisInAR]

My best guess is that as a nation we have lost our moral base — which was easily whittled away at by the MSM & the Hollywood, financial, educational, & governmental Elite over several decades. IMO, that’s one of the main reasons why our conservative future may be non-existent.

Add to that the growing illegal alien population, which begs to have a massive Welfare State to feast upon...& there you have it.

We as a nation will NOT go back to the 1950’s “Leave It To Beaver” days until there is a MAJOR revival & return to our Christian heritage in all 50 states.

That’s what I think, anyway, but I’m probably wrong.