Posted on 03/01/2020 11:02:59 AM PST by DouglasKC
Nicely done.
Those 1.8 million who need to be hospitalized so they don’t die won’t be able to use the 924 107 hospital beds, because they will need ICU beds, which surveys consistently show are about 15% of all hospital beds, or about 138 000 total ICU beds.
However. Some of these are CCU beds, or post-surgery beds.
Also, not all of them are equipped to provide airborne isolation. In my hospital, 2/40 ICU beds are so equipped, and based on my experience, this ratio is normal.
Never mind the staffing issue. Patients will need 1:1, no rotation of staff, one slip and the nurse or tech goes into quarantine x 14 days.
IF we try to maintain the standard of care for one or two patients with even 1000 patients, the system will crash.
THAT’S why this is such a big issue.
I know they are. I was purposely using very low numbers and a best case scenario in order to show why governments are worried. The actual numbers are what really frightens them.
Do you? No? Then why are you demanding they do? Politicians are following your lead.
Seems like a circular reference. “I am cuz they are and they is cuz I am.”
Exactly..i didn't even touch upon those factors you mentioned and of those 968,000 beds only 40% or so are actually available at any one time...at least in 2012 where i got the stat from.
But what if the mutation increased transmission instead of decreased.
In general, the more transmissible a virus is, the less deadly it is. Covid-19 is one of those that occupies a sweet spot: it has a low enough mortality rate to be highly transmissible, but high enough mortality to cause millions of deaths in a susceptible population.
“Come back here in 2 weeks after results in and prove all the “dramabugs” wrong.”
It’s not on me to prove you wrong. You made the assertion the virus will be devastating. We’ll come back in 6 months and have a good laugh.
No they're not. Even before it was a blip on the radar of the public China was already into draconian measures to contain it. Even before it was a blip on the radar of the general public President Trump was banning flights and quarantining. And even in countries where they don't give a darn about their people they are taking at the exact same steps. ALL countries and all leaders are reacting the same way.
Crisis and government in love.
“1 death in the US so far.”
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“Do you have an alternate reason why every government on the face of the earth including the United States government is taking this very seriously?”
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Good question, but I expect you won’t get an answer.
Also, the there’s just been x deaths argument isn’t a very convincing one as it could just as easily been claimed when in Wuhan when this thing just started.
Just 10 days ago, there were only 3 confirmed cases in Italy. Today, there are 1,694 confirmed cases. Figure that rate of growth in percent. Yiii.
You got that right! They sure do know how to "fast track" a massive 2-floor "hospital complex:
No I did not say that...Geez don’t put words in mouth...
You are a denigrater. You used word dramabug...
I said come back and prove dramabugs wrong...
Since they are not testing, I think there will be a lot more cases in 2 weeks. PERIOD...
It will be lower than that. The only hospitalizations would be those who are in critical condition
It’s a communist country known for lying
The only thing I know for sure is right now we don’t know
What I said is what I meant. I trust zero numbers out of China and Iran
Right now we don’t have enough data from the others
IF that is what happens
A dear mongering post full of inaccuracies is more like it. Your statistical analysis is way off, and offers compounding error as you proceed through it.
Less worried about the government because Trump.
I’m worried about the people, we have an abundance of stupid people...
all desired by God, but stupid.
People need to take it seriously and they need to NOT panic either.
As a hospital based intensivist, I assure you this is completely inaccurate.
What you said is “No the death rate isn’t high compared to the flu”. What country’s reported death rate are you basing that comparison on?
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