Posted on 11/05/2018 5:31:06 PM PST by SMGFan
Is this their final prediction?
I had a feeling months ago Pollsters would give GOP few Pickups... So RCP thinks all other Toss Ups will fall Dem.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
It’s not really a prediction. It’s an automatic averaging of all the polls.
Most recent election predictions
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018#Most_recent_election_predictions
Most pollsters staying on Toss Ups. Few want to give GOP any gains in the Senate. But a few flip AZ & NV to D and courageously /s give ND to GOP.
It’s effectively a prediction based on that other data.
RCP predicts GOP+2. I predict GOP+5 based not on polls but instinct. We’ll see who gets it closer.
Did most pollsters stay on so many Toss Ups in the past Senate elections?
All I want to know is which report does Weasel Mueller submit and when will Sessions hit the road.
Im going to go out on a limb and say John James might just pull off victory in MI and there are enough people in AZ with brains to choose a USAF pilot over a tutu wearing liberal ditz
EXAMPLE - RCP called Young (R) against Bayh (D) a tossup in the Indiana Senate race in 2016, with Young leading by 0.7 percent. Young won by 9.7 percent, or nine points ahead of their “poll”.
Hahaha. Idiotic. No gain for R’ in senate??? Fools or liars...
+6.
The polls on which the averages are based are biased - they are meant to influence, not report.
The mood of the country is against the Dems, and they are defending a LOT more territory. Sheesh, even Menendez in bright blue NJ is in trouble.
Make that +7...and keep the House...and the Blue Wave is oceans of their tears.
Posted previously on this forum:
“Thing is, the amount of money in the races is part of ole Nate’s model at 538.
He uses the flawed polls first, and then adds some secret sauce to the candidate with the most money being spent. But that model was proven so inadequate in 2016.
Just another reason ole Nate will be so wrong again!”
GOP +7 to +9 in the Senate
Mendez - gone
McCaskill - gone
Heitkamp - gone
Manchin - gone
Donnelly - gone
Nelson - gone
Tester - gone
Stabenow- Maybe gone
Kaine - Maybe gone
The Republicans may pick up one of the two seats in Minnesota
No GOP Senator loses and they hold the McCain and Flake seats
GOP somewhere between -5 and +20 in the House but hold the house.
Replacing Corker with Blackburn should be considered a Republican pick up.
John James is in wrong party for The Oprah & Hollywood left... but they support fake Hispanic Beto.
Also posted previously:
“My prediction: There are going to be so many crossover Democrats voting Republican that the pollsters ain’t gonna know what hit them.
Even the early vote counters will be shocked!
Maybe even enough #Blexit/#Walkaway voters to sway the election in my district - GA4, Hank Johnson vs Joe Profit.
I know... pipe dream.”
No kidding she will be a solid conservative vote in that austere body....
Being sarcastic
Not about her
I think +5 is much closer to the mark. That’s what I’m predicting. Nelson, Tester, McCaskill, Donnelly and Heitkamp all lose. The Republicans hold onto seats in Tennessee, Arizona and Nevada.
Manchin and Menendez survive.
...”The polls on which the averages are based are biased - they are meant ‘to influence’ not report.”....
Indeed! After the last election why pay those attention unless they haven’t decided and just vote with who looks like they will win......we do have folks like that.
I say at least 5
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