Posted on 12/31/2017 1:10:42 AM PST by JLAGRAYFOX
Democrats are predicting a massive wave political victory in the upcoming 2018 Mid-Term elections. Citing their victories in New Jersey, Virginia & Alabama, this year, as positive proof of their forthcoming victories in 2018. "WRONG"!!!
Why? New Jersey was a no brainer. A Democrat dog catcher, man or woman would have won NJ with their eyes closed.
Virginia, first of all, Governor Terry McAuliffe, one of the biggest political Cheaters/Criminal of all time did his best act. He was lucky because the "weak" Republican candidate, Ed Gilliespie, shunned the support of POTUS, Donald J. Trump. As a result of that stance, thousands upon thousands of Trump supporters stayed home and did not vote in the Governor election. That move impacted the whole election across the state. Had the Trump Republican Conservative ran for Governor instead of Ed Gilliespie.....the Pubbies had a great chance of winning. Ed Gilliespie threw that election away..period.
Alabama, Judge Roy Moore the Republican candidate for the US Senate did not lose that election because of his alleged abuse of young women forty years age. He lost that election because he was a badly flawed candidate, that failed to campaign aggressively, do interviews with "tough" media folks, sounded and acted like a quasi-racist. African-Americans hated Moore, because they believed he was a "racist at heart". Thus the upset loss of the Alabama seat. In fact, POTUS, Trump earlier in the campaign stated that Roy Moore would have a rough time winning the seat and voiced his support for the current sitting Senator, Luther Strange, who lost in a runoff against Judge Roy Moore
So...if I were a Democrat political leader, I would take very little comfort from all three of these elections. My prediction is...the Republicans easily hold both the House & Senate, come the November election. Republicans will gain five to twenty seats in the House and they will win five to eight Senate seats in the Senate.
Bottom line unless Democrats change their tune dramatically top work positively with POTUS, Trump...they go nowhere, but, down, politically. Case closed. Pundits & Pollsters beware...you are already on thin ice with American voters...do not become become 100% stupid as most of you are today!!
We've read calculations that the confiscated wealth alone can totally cure our national debt, more than balance the budget as well as provide $trillions for infrastructure building.
Pretty close on your prediction.
The math says they can’t hold hold, much less gain in the Senate.
They have 25 seats up for grabs, compared to 8 for Republicans.
The probability is they lose seats, as they have at least 11 vulnerable while we have maybe one at risk.
If the economy continues its pace or grows faster, then it’s over for them....period.
Then we look toward 2020 and if I’m right, the Democrats are done for the next decade...
Yes, the “3-state sweep” is a classic media BS narrative designed to invalidate Trump, make Democrats “cool” again, and dishearten Deplorables.
We can hope the GOP can learn from the losses. But... McConnell.
I tend to agree on the Senate episode. The GOP might lose four of the eight seats they hold, but out of the twenty-odd seats for the Democrats, I would take a guess that eight of them will go to the GOP....so it’s a plus-up of four by the end of 2018.
The House might see a couple of seats flip to the Democrats, but the GOP will still hold a 51-percent or more hold on the situation.
The governor’s seat for Alabama comes up and it’s about 95-percent that one of the two GOP folks (either Ivey or Battle) will end up with the seat.
This is very bad for the Deplorable Agenda. In Alabama, Dems have found a way to win....gin up the Black female population. Establishment Republicans have shown that they’d rather lose elections than have someone win who is opposed to them. I’m wondering if they’re planning to throw the next election in the US Senate just to keep control of the national agenda, along with their real allies, Democratic power brokers.
"Seat Forecast Simulated Seats Over Time Democrats earn a median of 222 seats in our simulations of the 2018 midterms. This may differ from the strict predictions below because of the larger number of Lean Republican seats than Lean Democratic seats in the current Congress. Effectively we are saying that the below number is an ideal estimate, meant to give you context as to which seats are competitive, but that we expect Democrats to overperform expectations based on the assessment of our error in past predictions."
"Of course, there is error in our forecast — measurable error. We can account for that error by simulating the election thousands of times, asking the computer each time to pick random error for national polling that is based on error from past predictions. "
https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/
Here is Larry Sabato list of Toss Up , Leans & Likely House Seats http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/
And Cook Political
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
Re: “Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie, shunned the support of POTUS, Donald J. Trump.”
Maybe that’s why Gillespie got a higher percentage of the Virginia vote than Trump did?
2017 - Gillespie - Virginia - 45.0%
2016 - Trump - Virginia - 44.4%
The 2018 mid term elections are eleven months out and will be influenced by events unforeseen and unimagined. One thing is clear though, Trump supporters will stay home in droves if the Republican majority in Congress continues to obstruct the President’s agenda.
Re: “Republican candidate, Ed Gillespie, shunned the support of POTUS, Donald J. Trump.”
Maybe that’s why Gillespie got a higher percentage of the Virginia vote than Trump did? 2017 - Gillespie - Virginia - 45.0% 2016 - Trump - Virginia - 44.4%
First of all, the comparison is of marginal utility, because it involves qualitatively different electoral situations, and second, the difference is very minimal in any event—amounting to nothing more than statistical noise—and certainly not sufficient to prove any point regarding relative support for President Trump (or lack thereof)...
"...Trump supporters will stay home in droves if the Republican majority..."
Senate R pick up 6-8 seats
What does that have to do with anything
It isn’t possible to throw the Senate.
The dems have 25 seats against our 8 in 2018.
They have 11 vulnerable, we have ....maybe 1.
Do the math...
ah, but what were the turnout numbers? 45% vs 44% of what?
The FACT that the dems were able to steal the Alabama election with the blessing of Establishment Republicans provides them with the roadmap to win US Senate seats. It’s a slippery slope the power-broker ‘pubs started down, deciding to throw that election when they didn’t get the nominee they wanted.
Around that.
Look how much it cost them.
In fact, they’ve blown so kinds of money this year and that eats into their bankrupt fundraising arms.
They are so broke, they can’t pay attention.
This should work to our advantage and so will Trump accomplishments and agenda.
They want to fight us but, they can’t fight sleep.
Losers.
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