Posted on 08/07/2017 10:44:59 AM PDT by BenLurkin
Full Headline: There’s a 'supervolcano' waiting to erupt beneath a seemingly 'beautiful' market, according to a portfolio manager
"We went back to 1994 and researched team data that said [that if we look at cyclically adjusted P/E, one out of two times] the market was down in the next 12 months, and about one out of three times it was down more than 10 percent," he said.
James' observations seem to mirror a note released more than a week ago by Goldman Sachs, which found that when valuations have been this high, 10-year returns on the S&P 500 have been either in the single digits or negative 99 percent of the time.
In other words, the market could be in oversold territory, which James does believe.
"It doesn't mean that we'll see a volcanic eruption in the immediate future, and these market peaks take a long time, but we're definitely in the latter stages of this market advance," he said. "We're going to see the inevitable correction, I just wish I could say I knew when."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
The sky is falling.
Just buy my new book and I’ll tell you all about it..............
Unless the supervolcano is about to level mecca I am about as interested and am willing to invest my time and resources in listening to it as I would be in a story about a non hot woman
They must realize Trump is succeeding despite all the attempts to take him down. Now they are trying to take down the stock market & all of Trump’s successes.
My first thought was who would build a fruit market on top of a volcano........
"I've never witnessed such hatred for a man who is willing to work for free to make his beloved country a better place. It is pathological!"
I am out of the market. Not because I want to be, but because of two Obama recession layoffs.
If these predictors had the courage of their convictions, they would be shorting the market. Talk is cheap.
Not everything is about politics.
I mean, unless you want it to be.
P/E ratios and the market history is mere history and analysis of it
those that think pointing out facts about how historically high the average p/e is today has something to do with “bashing Trump.
but it has nothing to do with Trump, it’s just plain vanilla market analysis based on market history
I think it would have remained a more stable market if receipt growth in earnings did not see much rise in share prices, because I think “exuberant expectations” had already builtin that revenue up tick, and that same exuberance had already drive the p/e average into historically dangerous territory.
I think not. Trump is supporting the slow rise in interest rates, and commodities will remain stable due to low price of oil.
There are some unreasonably priced stocks and they are always suspect.
So the odds are good that the market will either go up or down.
I got out because everything I touched turned to crap.
Gotta admire consistency, though.
“...about one out of three times it was down more than 10 percent,”
10 percent of what? I know the answer, 10% of the peak, but we don’t know the peak. How is this actionable advice?
if you ever start investing again, please be so kind as to tell us what you buy
:)
If I might ask... when did you get out of the market?
Isn’t it peculiar they seem to be talking down the economy now but during Obama’s reign their wasn’t a peep. I think they’re trying to cause a self fulfilling prophecy.
Isn’t it peculiar they seem to be talking down the economy now but during Obama’s reign their wasn’t a peep. I think they’re trying to cause a self fulfilling prophecy.
Sooner or later, they'll be right.
Nice. :-)
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