Global Warming Pause: Is the End Near?

American Thinker ^ | 02/03/2015 | S. Fred Singer

[SeekAndFind]

Introduction

Global Warming (GW) alarmists are in a pickle: no GW, in spite of rising CO2 levels.  True believers are using quasi-religious slogans, like “The End [of the GW pause] is Near” and “Repent [Stop emitting CO2] Before It’s Too Late.”

The observed absence of a global-warming trend (often described as “pause” or “hiatus”), beginning around Yr 2000 (or perhaps even earlier) contradicts the results of every IPCC climate model – all of them driven by a steady increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide; see figure. 

This lack of model validation has obvious implications for model-based estimates of future climate.  Until the cause of the pause is better understood and incorporated into existing models, all policies aiming to stabilize climate are useless and are nothing more than highly uncertain and hugely expensive exercises.

The label of “pause” (used by UN-IPCC alarmists) suggests that absence of a warming trend is only temporary -- and that warming may soon resume.  This seems to be the opinion of well-known climate alarmists; climate skeptics, by and large, have not published their views about the end of the pause.

Cause of the pause

As I wrote in American Thinker of Dec 29, 2014:

Scientific efforts to discover mechanisms for the cause of the pause, some dozens of “explanations” so far, have not yet been successful.  These include a build-up of heat in the deep oceans, a weakening of solar activity, and aerosols of volcanic ash in the atmosphere that reflect the sun’s rays back into space.  However, the impact of solar activity and volcanoes does not appear sufficient to explain the pause and the accumulation of deep ocean heat appears to be somewhat elusive –

[SeekAndFind]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus at the University of Virginia and director of the Science & Environmental Policy Project. His specialty is atmospheric and space physics. An expert in remote sensing and satellites, he served as the founding director of the US Weather Satellite Service and, more

[EQAndyBuzz]

I have a question. Why is it that when a “majority” of scientists declare that global warming is happening, we need to accept it as consensus, but when the “majority” of economists say that we need to balance our budget and reduce spending or else the economy will collapse are right wing lunatics?

[EQAndyBuzz]

I have a question. Why is it that when a “majority” of scientists declare that global warming is happening, we need to accept it as consensus, but when the “majority” of economists say that we need to balance our budget and reduce spending or else the economy will collapse are right wing lunatics?

[hinckley buzzard]

Links to Fred Singer's writings for scientists can be found on the website www.wattsupwiththat.com. Every climate skeptic should visit this website regularly to keep up to date not only on the science but on the devious tactics of the alarmist syndicate.

[taxcontrol]

Ohhh GOOD point! I like that one and think I will reuse that argument.

[Old Sarge]

Globull Warming has all the hallmarks of a religious movement:

* It has its own prophet (Algore);
* It has its own promised Messiah (Obola);
* One can buy indulgences for the remission of sin (carbon credits);
* It has its own ecclesiastical hierarchy that is above the law (celebutards and other Leftists);
* It demands unwavering obedience to its holy writ, and all apostates/infidels must be put to the sword (figuratively or literally);

Feel free to add to the list...

[Star Traveler]

Sunspots 2015: Year of the decline
http://www.commdiginews.com/featured/sunspots-2015-year-of-the-decline-32772/

AUSTIN, January 5, 2015 – Solar maximum activity peaked in April 2014 at an exceptionally low 81.9 spots/day. Waning solar activity in 2015 will begin the long, inexorably journey toward solar minimum over the next half decade.

If solar physicists are correct, solar activity could be very low for several decades to come. How that will affect climate change is anyone’s guess, but low sunspot activity has already been identified by the United Nation’s International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of the main causes for the 15+ year “hiatus” from atmospheric global warming.

What does the downturn in solar activity mean for earth’s long-term climate?

One legitimate comparison of the current situation on the sun is to a cold period on earth called the Dalton Minimum. It happened 200 years ago.

[Star Traveler]

Scientists Fear Another ‘Little Ice Age’ Is On The Way
http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/21/scientists-fear-another-little-ice-age-is-on-the-way/

Last year may have been the warmest on record, but it has done little to quell the fears of scientists arguing that declining sunspot activities could bring on another “little ice age.”

Shrinivas Aundhkar, director of India’s Mahatma Gandhi Mission at the Centre for Astronomy and Space Technology, said declining amounts of sunspots being observed in the last two solar cycles could mean a “mini ice age-like situation” is around the corner.

“The sunspots that can be seen on the sun have comparatively less temperature compared to other surfaces on it,” Aundhkar told people at a lecture entitled “Get Ready for Little Ice Age.”

[Signalman]

The Religion of Global Warming:

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2012/04/the_religion_of_global_warming.html

[Regal]

There is absolutely no such thing as Global Warming. Not now, not ever.

No one can even say that thermometers measure temperature. How do we know thermometers aren’t effected by atmospheric pressure, the color of the area being measure, whether or not Walking Dead Marathon is still running.

Scientists are stupid.

[Signalman]

There is absolutely no such thing as Global Warming.

I disagree. Sometimes the earth warms (medieval warming period-AD 950-1250). Sometimes it cools (Little Ice Age-1550-1850). But it's all caused by natural forces.

[qam1]

Heretic
Denier

God works in mysterious ways
It’s weather not climate

The Garden of Eden
The Noble Savage

Eating of the Apple
Invention of the internal combustion engine

Jesus Ascended into the sky but will come back one day and bring on Armageddon
Global Warming descended into the deep ocean but will come back one day and bring on Armageddon

Creationism was re-branded as “Intelligent Design”
Global Warming was re-branded as “Climate Change”

There are no transitional fossils
There is no pause

Tithes
Carbon Credits

Kosher Foods
Organic Foods

Pascal’s Wager
Stewart’s Justice and Equality

[DuncanWaring]

Ping.

[Old Sarge]

Very good read, Thank You!

[DuncanWaring]

This lack of model validation has obvious implications for model-based estimates of future climate.

If these models were actually any good, they could be set to the conditions of 1914, run a 100-year forecast, and it would match the actual observed climate of the last 100 years.

If this could be done, the "climate scientists" would be screaming it from the rooftops; they're not doing it, therefore any forecast from these models is meaningless.

[aquila48]

An even better question is why is it that whenever there is some evidence that the supposedly catastrophic global warming isn’t happening all the warmists become outraged instead of elated?

Shouldn’t that be good news for them if they are truly worried about global warming?

[DuncanWaring]

From the late Alexander Cockburn, as militant a hard-left writer as could be found:

Is Global Warming a Sin?

[ExSoldier]

BOOKMARK

[JimRed]

The global average concentration of CO 2 in Earth’s atmosphere is about 0.0399%, or 399 parts per million (ppm)

Four parts per thousand. Double it and the only noticeable change would be more vigorous plant growth. We couldn’t double it in a thousand years if we tried.

[JimRed]

Is Global Warming a Sin?

Lying is a sin, thus global warming is a sin.