Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Why Romney is going to win Pennsylvania (Vanity)
vanity ^ | November 5, 2012 | ConservativeInPa

Posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:27 PM PST by ConservativeInPA

Dick Morris just said on FoxNews that Romney will win PA. A lot of people think he is nuts. A lot of people think PA will disappoint again. But, here are the reasons Romney will win PA.

In the past week, Romney, the GOP and PACs have dumped more than $5 million into ads. Obama's coffers are empty. Recently the Obama campaign had to go to Bank of America for a loan. The Democrat response to the Republican spend in PA has been $650,000.

The Democrats have been caught flat footed. They have not been expecting this end game.

If we follow Bill Clinton around the state today, we can see the areas that the Obama campaign is worried about. Philadelphia - this is purely a GOTV effort. Philadelphia is going for Obama by 83%. That is what we are fighting against. That and perhaps Montgomery County, another Clinton destination today. Montgomery county is liberal, but much less liberal in 2010 than 2008. Clinton is going to Montgomery County to stop the bleeding. Clinton also had Lakawanna County (Scranton) on this itinerary today. This is an area that is heavily influenced by coal and natural gas (Marcellus Shale). Natural gas was not an issue in 2008. It is today. Over 240,000 natural gas related jobs have been created in Pa since Obama took office. Add to that, the United Mine Workers of America are sitting out this election and Lakawanna county is a completely different beast this year.

Lastly, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) was one of Bill's destinations today. It isn't 2008. In 2010, Allegheny County went for Republican Tom Corbett (narrowly). They now have a track record of voting a Republican and the Obama campaign knows it. This is another stop the bleeding trip for Bill.

The one place that Bill didn't make it too was Delaware County. Delaware County used to be a Republican county. My guess is that the Obama campaign knows that it is trending in that direction again and Bill's time would be better spent in Montgomery County.

Don't buy the Democrat line that Romney is going into PA out of desperation. Romney has been to PA ten times since his campaign begun. It will be 11 times tomorrow. Ryan has also been in PA multiple times.

Now for what really makes me think Romney wins PA. Between 2008 and 2010 elections, the 67 counties of PA averaged 11% more in Republican votes. Many counties are 60 and 70% Republican. I think this is enough to compensate for Philadelphia, Lakawanna, Montgomery and Allegheny Counties. See the chart below.

Right now PA feels like 2010 on steroids. In 2010, Pa voted for a Republican governor, state house, state senate and increased the number is Republican US house members beyond a majority and elected a conservative US senator. That momentum has not been lost, it has only increased because PA really clings to guns and religion.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Local News; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: pa2012
Photobucket
1 posted on 11/05/2012 7:49:30 PM PST by ConservativeInPA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Here’s hoping!!


2 posted on 11/05/2012 7:55:04 PM PST by TXBlair (I will not forget November 5, 2009. Support the 32 Still Standing Foundation.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

>> Recently the Obama campaign had to go to Bank of America for a loan.

No kidding.

I wonder if BofA asked the vendors in Charlotte for a credit reference for the Obamao campaign.

Bronco Bama prolly made BofA an offer they couldn’t refuse...

I pray Pennsylvanians vote their future — especially their energy future — and not their history!


3 posted on 11/05/2012 7:56:23 PM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

This state, and in particular Montgomery County, will be in The R Column by the end of the night.


4 posted on 11/05/2012 7:57:45 PM PST by WomBom ("I read Free Republic for the pictures")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

How does mid-term turn out compare with presidential election turn-out generally overall and was 2010 different in this aspect?


5 posted on 11/05/2012 7:59:39 PM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Ann Coulter was exploding with good news and facts dripping with encouraging victory!

Also, in Iowa, I heard a report on Fox by Ann, I believe,that in the state polling, 5 respondents would not say which man they were voting for. This was taken as not good for Obama, interpreted that voters in a liberal state don’t want to be thought as racist. Excellent observation.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 7:59:51 PM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

I never understood how politicians or rallies increased their votes. I mean the ones that drive there, go through security, and wait awhile until the politician finally shows up seem like the ones that’ll vote in any case. Anyone understand how these help?


7 posted on 11/05/2012 8:03:30 PM PST by MNDude (OWS Movement RIP)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RitaOK

Precisely, last des moines register poll shows obama up 47 to 42%. They stated 5% refused to answer who they are voting for. Presumably romney voters who wanted to be quiet.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 8:04:44 PM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Well researched and well written. Thanks for posting, backs my feeling on the state. My parents live in Lancaster county.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 8:04:49 PM PST by TheRhinelander
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RitaOK

Precisely, last des moines register poll shows obama up 47 to 42%. They stated 5% refused to answer who they are voting for. Presumably romney voters who wanted to be quiet.


10 posted on 11/05/2012 8:05:27 PM PST by Ravi
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
Thanks. That’s some solid and encouraging information.
11 posted on 11/05/2012 8:05:49 PM PST by Barnacle (Is treason a high crime or misdemeanor?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Check Fayette! We’ve been on the move!


12 posted on 11/05/2012 8:06:58 PM PST by MestaMachine (obama kills and none dare call it treason)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

             

13 posted on 11/05/2012 8:09:40 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tomkat
okay guys and gals......when will we know?......if we get who we should get...the NC, VA, Col, FL plus the other usual suspects....then if Pa is called for Romney, we know right?...we will know....

or Ohio...both states in the Eastern Time zone...

will we know by 5pm PST?....

14 posted on 11/05/2012 8:16:20 PM PST by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Thanks for the information! Gingrich is very confident we will win Pa. and Ohio! Looks like Romney threw a curve ball to Obama. WhooHoo!


15 posted on 11/05/2012 8:17:06 PM PST by sheikdetailfeather (Yuri Bezmenov (KGB Defector) - "Kick The Communists Out of Your Govt. & Don't Accept Their Goodies.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cherry

Barring massive ENEmedia sabotage, I’d think not much later than 8pm PST


16 posted on 11/05/2012 8:19:33 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: frogjerk
How does mid-term turn out compare with presidential election turn-out generally overall and was 2010 different in this aspect?

The mid-term turnout was lower than the presidential election turnout. I think what the results in 2010 in PA shows that there were a lot or once and done (youth) voters for Obama in 2008. By the way, PA is the second oldest state in the union after FL. There are a lot of seniors that vote in every election, even of it is just for township commissioner. I think the vote in 2010 also showed an intensity that hasn't been there before. There was no Tea Party in 2008. There was in 2010. Contrary to what Democrats claim, the Tea Party is not dead, at least not in PA. Republican senatorial candidate, Tom Smith, is a Tea Party guy. He is polling even with incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. The Tea Party folks haven't been protesting, but they are still organized. They are doing the typical conservative thing; quietly voting.

17 posted on 11/05/2012 8:20:14 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
Lastly, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) was one of Bill's destinations today. It isn't 2008. In 2010, Allegheny County went for Republican Tom Corbett (narrowly). They now have a track record of voting a Republican and the Obama campaign knows it. This is another stop the bleeding trip for Bill.

The local news in Pittsburgh announced a few days ago that Clinton would be in town today, and they said that it would require tickets for the event which was held at Market Square, downtown. That's an open square, not all that big, in the middle of the city.

This morning, the same TV news station announced that even though tickets were previously required, anyone showing up could probably get in.

Even the thousands of government workers at State, Federal and Local government in Downtown couldn't request enough tickets sends a big message, IMHO.

The bigger message is what's Obama doing shooting his biggest gun in Clinton in a supposedly solid blue state like Pennsylvania, and in a solid 'Blue' city like Pittsburgh, the day before the election?

18 posted on 11/05/2012 8:20:47 PM PST by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cherry
will we know by 5pm PST?....

We could, unless its close.

19 posted on 11/05/2012 8:22:47 PM PST by NeoCaveman ("If I had a son he'd look like B.O.'s lunch" - Rin Tin Tin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
Lastly, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) was one of Bill's destinations today. It isn't 2008. In 2010, Allegheny County went for Republican Tom Corbett (narrowly). They now have a track record of voting a Republican and the Obama campaign knows it. This is another stop the bleeding trip for Bill.

The local news in Pittsburgh announced a few days ago that Clinton would be in town today, and they said that it would require tickets for the event which was held at Market Square, downtown. That's an open square, not all that big, in the middle of the city.

This morning, the same TV news station announced that even though tickets were previously required, anyone showing up could probably get in.

Even the thousands of government workers at State, Federal and Local government in Downtown couldn't request enough tickets sends a big message, IMHO.

The bigger message is what's Obama doing shooting his biggest gun in Clinton in a supposedly solid blue state like Pennsylvania, and in a solid 'Blue' city like Pittsburgh, the day before the election?

20 posted on 11/05/2012 8:22:50 PM PST by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tomkat

I think you need to fill in the lower left hand corner of the T this year. Greene, Washington, Somerset and Fayette counties are going for Romney this year. I think that is one of the biggest differences this year. I spent a lot of time out that way for work earlier in the year. I was really surprise how much Obama is really hated. But then again, I was with a lot of natural gas workers.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 8:26:11 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
Wow, I wouldn't send Klink to the Green Line. Yeah, maybe half of those matrons think he's a donkey god, but the other half perceive him strictly as a womanizing scumbag.

Philly can be offset, but you need an arising from West PA like never before. Maybe.

But then I believe Ohio is in the bag for Romney so this is all sideshow for me.

22 posted on 11/05/2012 8:26:33 PM PST by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA, NH = 285EV)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
If that left corner gets even medium pink, it won't even be close .. give 'em hell PA !

Good thread, CIPA !

23 posted on 11/05/2012 8:30:24 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Ditto

It is purely a defensive mood by the Obama campaign. It will be interesting to hear how the Romney rally goes tomorrow, I am guessing it will be at the airport. I don’t have high expectations since it is a work day and it is hard enough to fit work and standing line at the polls into the day.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 8:30:50 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: tomkat

God bless the bitter clingers in the red T of PA.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 8:31:58 PM PST by ntnychik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: WomBom
This state, and in particular Montgomery County, will be in The R Column by the end of the night.

I hope you are right. I have my doubts about Montgomery and Delaware counties. I am just hoping it is close. That should be enough to allow other counties to make up the difference for the Philadelphia vote.

26 posted on 11/05/2012 8:34:02 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

thanks


27 posted on 11/05/2012 8:34:20 PM PST by frogjerk (OBAMA NOV 2012 = HORSEMEAT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
if we don't get Pa or Ohio we could still win I think if we took one vote from Maine, and got Iowa and Nevada...

many scenarios....

make it easy folks....GET US PA OR OHIO!

28 posted on 11/05/2012 8:35:02 PM PST by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: ntnychik
Bless you, and God bless this nation with the return of some sanity tomorrow !

g'night all . . .

29 posted on 11/05/2012 8:36:19 PM PST by tomkat ( PAlabama '12 = RR = 300 +)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: TXBlair

Mitt Romney is a pretty shrewed politician. Remember how low he played it in the summer months of the campaign and then the debates arrived and “Wham!” He completely blind sided Obama.

I think he did the same thing in PA....acting like he was conceding the state to the point that Obama took it for granted and committed money elsewhere and then....”Wham” Romney sunk 5 million dollars of add buys into the state and began a full court press to get the votes.

Don’t you see, Obama was fighting for Ohio when Romney was really fighting in PA. Don’t get me wrong, Romney wants Ohio badly too but, I think Romney really shocked the Obama campaign with this PA maneuver. I bet Romney’s ground team was quietly workig PA all the while as well.

Again, don’t under estimate Romney as politician. He knows how to read people, probes for thir soft spots, and knows how to twist it in when he has to. No one becomes a hugely successful business man without these skills. If PA goes to Romney, it will be considered a political move of brilliance.


30 posted on 11/05/2012 8:39:25 PM PST by Mustangman (The GOP)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: cherry

Polls close in PA at 8pm. Exit polling will certainly know who has won long before that unless its incredibly close... Or the MSM refuses to call even knowing Romney has it won in hopes that some western state not go to Romney as expected.

I full expect by 5-6pm tomorrow the press will know the winner but won’t call until polls close. FL being in 2 time zones certainly will not get called early like it was in 2000 if its clear Romney is up. If its close the MSM may play a little 2000 trying to supress panhandle vote. But in reality FL won’t be close.

Be ready for scorched earth out of the WH. They know they have this lost. This is all about stemming down ticket hemmoraging as much as possible.


31 posted on 11/05/2012 8:40:25 PM PST by HamiltonJay
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA
It will be interesting to hear how the Romney rally goes tomorrow, I am guessing it will be at the airport. I don’t have high expectations since it is a work day and it is hard enough to fit work and standing line at the polls into the day.

I'd agree with that. I remember the day when campaigns were over the weekend before the election, but with the 24 hour news cycle and immediate internet news blasts, I guess it never ends today.

32 posted on 11/05/2012 8:43:19 PM PST by Ditto (Nov 2, 2010 -- Partial cleaning accomplished. More trash to remove in 2012)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: MNDude

A lot, IMO, is an enthusiasm/psychological thing. It is one thing to see the candidate you are voting for on TV, and another to actually be there, and be in an exciting environment. Sort of like playing a football game in an empty yard vs a full stadium.

And even if the people their aren’t undecided, they get excited, maybe volunteer or at least talk. You get regional news coverage, and then in smaller towns you probably DO get people not for sure voting, because it is an “event” in those places to go see a candidate.


33 posted on 11/05/2012 8:51:40 PM PST by Crimson Elephant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Ravi

Yes, yes! Thank you for clarifying how that wonderful 5% was conglomerated in the poll results. I just thought that was such striking, and interesting, awesome news that to me was very meaningful to the real picture. Thank you for finishing the facts! God be with us. Off now for night time prayers!

I will be voting tomorrow!


34 posted on 11/05/2012 8:55:57 PM PST by RitaOK ( VIVA CHRISTO REY / Public education is the farm team for more Marxists coming.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Good night folks. I am going to pray myself to sleep and get up early to vote.


35 posted on 11/05/2012 8:56:04 PM PST by ConservativeInPA (I advocate indentured servitude for the 47% until the national debt is eliminated.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

I sure hope they do! It’d be nice if Buck wasn’t the only Suburban county that flipped(and it very well may I hope!), and our neighbors can join us in on being red like the T!


36 posted on 11/05/2012 9:02:57 PM PST by Shadow44
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: ConservativeInPA

Just voted in Montgomery. Lib lawyer in front of me complaining about them asking to show his ID. I offered mine up freely and sort of in your face. Pole workers were cool about it.. I think they thought he was a jerk.

Anyway, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!

We need to offset these weenies in the suburbs of Philly if we are to win the state!


37 posted on 11/06/2012 7:01:17 AM PST by WomBom ("I read Free Republic for the pictures")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson