But if it's just a tropical wave, it's a healthy-looking wave.
Posted on 07/19/2008 9:01:57 AM PDT by Dog Gone
If you live along the Texas or Louisiana coast, you need to keep your eyes open for something that could mess with your plans next week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071900-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Click the FWD key.
That particular forecast model, which actually has been one of the better ones in recent years, shows a Category 4 hurricane hitting just east of Houston by mid-week.
This is Inv 94L. The GFDL is an outlier in taking the storm towards the upper TX coast. The official NHC forecast takes it in around Brownsville. The current intensity forecast is just that it could be a tropical depression “at any time”.
I work for a hi-tech company with lots of business partners in Asia, many have HQ in Taiwan. Been there a dozen or more times in the last decade. Taipei City has cleaned up big time since my first visit in 1999 - and they’ve changed their regs to allow motorcycles in the city!
Damn! I live east of Houston. Was in on the Western edge of Rita and lost two large trees. Hope this one goes in well south of Houston. Their drought is worse than ours.
But if it's just a tropical wave, it's a healthy-looking wave.
bump for updates
We all know full and well that this storm will not hit Houston. VP Cheney was recently seen flying over the gulf this week sprinkling a trail of hurricane beans all the way to New Orleans.
I pray this system does nothing but bring some much needed rain to drought-striken Texas but never amounts to a hurricane or even a Tropical Storm.
Interesting link! Thanks.
Yep, nobody in their right mind hopes for a hurricane, no matter how much rain it might bring. It ain’t worth it.
Lots of people forget about Alicia. A small tropical wave in the gulf that exploded into a cat3 within hours and barreled into galveston and stalled for 12 hours.
The GFDL at WU now has this system moving into Mexico.
Stay safe, y’all.
I don’t think any of the model runs mean much until this tropical wave develops a closed circulation. It’s that center where the models need to initialize for their forecasts to have a remote chance of being accurate.
It probably won’t happen today because of the wind shear, but it might well by tomorrow. I think a recon plane is out scouting the system right now, so we’ll have better information shortly.
Ya’ll Stay safe !!!
I know it is way too early, but this is like the 3rd time today someone has said, “just East of Houston”.
Could someone define “just East” please. Is that LP? Baytown or Beaumont?
Just curious...thanks.
One model run, the one I linked to, had it as a major storm hitting somewhere around the Winnie area, between Houston and Beaumont.
Some of the other models don’t even develop it into a storm. So just stay tuned.
The story is noteworthy today because it raises the possibility of a storm forming. It’s way too early to focus on where it might hit. Typically, these tropical model runs will jump all over the place in their early stages.
If this becomes Dolly it might clobber you or it might stroll into Nicaragua. Waaaaay too early to know.
You can now see hints of spinning on both the eastern and western side of the wave toward the end of this loop.
That suggests that it will be a tropical depression before long. It's not impossible that it will be a tropical storm by tomorrow evening, but that's probably a stretch.
The tropics are certainly heating up with activity. Will be watching this one carefully.
If this hits I am likely to be trapped in the neighborhood. The house doesn’t flood but the surrounding areas do. Will be work watching over the next few days.
Plenty of energy in this one. It's already got 40 mph winds which are tropical storm strength, but we've not found the lower level closed circulation center yet, so it's not a tropical storm. Technically, it's not a Tropical Depression, but it might well skip that step.
I was there in Houston when Alicia went right through the downtown metroplex, there was mounds of broken glass several feet high on the streets from the buildings, what made it worse was a 4 day long heavy rain just before it hit and the ground was super saturated, most areas were without power for two weeks.
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