The GFDL at WU now has this system moving into Mexico.
I don’t think any of the model runs mean much until this tropical wave develops a closed circulation. It’s that center where the models need to initialize for their forecasts to have a remote chance of being accurate.
It probably won’t happen today because of the wind shear, but it might well by tomorrow. I think a recon plane is out scouting the system right now, so we’ll have better information shortly.