Posted on 07/19/2008 9:01:57 AM PDT by Dog Gone
If you live along the Texas or Louisiana coast, you need to keep your eyes open for something that could mess with your plans next week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008071900-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Click the FWD key.
That particular forecast model, which actually has been one of the better ones in recent years, shows a Category 4 hurricane hitting just east of Houston by mid-week.
But keep an eye on this in case it actually becomes a threat.
Something else to watch.
One thing I’ve re-learned in the 10 years I’ve lived in far NW Houston: the weather forecasters don’t know where a storm will hit. Rita was the last example of false forecasts.
At the same time, considering the power and damage potential of these storms, we can’t rest on the weather professionals being wrong any more than we can rest on them being right.
It’s as you say - be prepared and, I might add, don’t be stupid.
for home
I’m less concerned about the forecast track than I am that the model shows that disturbance becoming a major hurricane.
We can sweat the details if that, in fact, happens. But just knowing that we could be facing something of a crisis in four or five days is valuable information.
Thanks for the heads up, was looking at this earlier at WU.
Ain’t that the truth. Because of Katrina, Houston went overboard in reaction to Rita. I was living just inside the 610 loop and never even lost power. I drove along the feeders and looked in amazement at the “parking lot” highways.
MM
We just barely escaped the wrath of Rita. I live in far NE harris county, we lost power for four days, people 40 miles east of us lost it for weeks. The last minute turn by Rita saved the Houston area.
I’m getting on the highway now. (better than getting in the shower).
I watched in amazement during “Beer 30”. My neighbor sat in traffic for 8 1/2 hours & only moved 3 miles.
Sucker.
I live 90 miles west of Houston. The Volunteer Fire Department told us to run as Rita got closer. We ran like rabbits and I consider it a very good decision. Rifles and fishing equipment, a few days of clothes and that was it. Oh and several plastic tubs of sheet music that would be nearly impossible to replace. heheheh.
We found out what we really valued.
Had Rita hit, those who had stayed would have been in tough straits as the eye was supposed to go through our little town with winds of 110 MPH. Don’t mess with Hurricanes.
It was shameful that businesses and city services and postal service dropped off completely BEFORE Rita “hit”.
That was why I got the Hell out of Houston. I knew (from Allison) that this place would not have anything to offer for a week or more if the storm did hit. Traffic lights were out for days. Grocery stores wouldn’t open (no power or too few staffers). Advised not to drive (and nighttime driving was risky since people weren’t stopping at out traffic lights treating them as 4-way stops).
I had the opportunity to work for several days out of town if the weather had hit us. I would not have had work (or pay) for several days had I stayed and things turned badly.
Short summary, if you have the idea to leave town, go because every moment more people are also getting the idea.
And don’t bring every damn piece of furniture you own or stop ON the freeway to walk the dog or let the kids walk to McDonalds. That kills travel times.
We live in a mandatory evac zone close to Tiki - I waved at you as you went by! Hope this one does not hit where Rita did. Many of those poor folks still have blue tarp roofs. Would love to see an itemized, detailed account of the FEMA money for Katrina and Rita - names, amounts, dates, results, etc.!
According to the news, I thought it was Nancy and crew who were going to NOLA next week - can’t they get anything right?
I was in Taiwan getting hit by 2 typhoons, my wife was at home. Our grown son was pleading with me to convince her to leave town (we live NW of Willowbrook area). Local TV showed the parking lots that are usually highways. My wife had stocked some food and water and batteries. Barely got rained on.
And unfortunately beat the bejezzus out us when we lived in Sulphur, LA.
Interesting. What took you to Taiwan, Manfred?
MM
It looks like the GFDL takes it to you. I thought blam was the hurricane magnet...
This thing isn’t even officially a tropical depression yet, so I’m not packing the car. But it is going to reach an area where conditions are favorable for development, and that’s when the pucker factor kicks in.
For today, I think it’s sufficient to know that it’s prudent to pay attention for the next few days.
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