Posted on 03/19/2023 8:40:22 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Putting the Ukie MOD commentary aside, the map shows it all. Another cauldron developing, beginning to “ boil”.
I believe the actual Russian and Western MOD maps ( the western usually lagging a bit, ie, they didn’t show Soledar was captured until a few days after the fact) instead of “ reported casualties “. As we who follow closely, know each side has their own narratives.
That said, nice map you posted. In line with Dima’s ( you tube Military Summary Channel) maps- he uses both Russian MOD and Western sources maps.
Looks like your tank count is going up by 15 tomorrow, thanks to actions at Adiivka.”
Yep, ORYX is showing a big increase in tank losses for the invaders. For tomorrows thread.
“The moment that a Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter was shot down by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile, as filmed by a Russian soldier.
Unfortunately, the precise date and location is unclear.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1637551939750617091
“nice map you posted.”
It is from Chuck Pfarrer (https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer).
He is a former Squadron Commander of the US Navy’s SEAL Team Six. I used to follow him during the war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. He is decidedly pro-Ukrainian.
Just a little bit busy right now...
“A Ukrainian soldier picks up the phone to tell his wife he’s “a bit busy” during the urban combat against Russian invaders in eastern Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1637519797771485184
So I guess we can both agree maps are the major key in decoding all the propaganda BS. I do like Dima, Military Summary Channel as he also throws in non western social media ( Ukie and Russian) reports derived from real time videos.
Other than maps, live video is hard to discount, assuming it is time stamped, etc. His coverage in the past of Vlad’s missile attacks across Ukraine were breathe taking, much under reported by the West.
As having worked in Moscow training Ivan’s I have an added perspective, one that any MSM simply can not understand or state. I look down harshly on many of the armchair commando’s who post with ignorant emotions.
They simply have absolutely no idea of the Russian’s resolve in this regional conflict, and the total disgust they have in the collective West…..ingredients for turning Ukraine into a huge smoking hole, which can be very easily done.
I do pray Vlad continues to show restraint and he remains till this wars conclusion. The war cheerleaders have absolutely NO IDEA of what is waiting to replace Vlad, his replacement before the war’s resolution will end up in one smoking hole once known as Ukraine.
2nd largest military and they are going for their 2,3…. Mobilization?
If bakmut falls they will move forward into another “bakmut
Question if they even still have the capability and capacity to exploit a breakthrough
One year and this is class cauldron?
Impressive
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz377nmCgRE
Dima discusses in detail Avidivka, much contrary to your maps commentary. Ie, existence of tunnels, many details for those that are following closely.
“Another cauldron developing, beginning to “boil”.”
That’s true, but the big picture is less impressive. Donetsk City was captured by Russian surrogate forces (the so called “Little Green Men”) in 2014. Adiivka is a suburb of that city. The front there has hardly moved since 2014.
This is/was the big Winter Offensive that Russia touted, when they withdrew from Kherson City and the Right bank of the Dniper River - the commitment of the main body of the reinforcements mobilized back in September (Russia’s first such mobilization since WWII).
This offensive has been so unspectacular, that for weeks (back in January) analysts and commentators debated if it had begun yet. As of last week, the intensity (number of assaults) of this offensive has significantly declined (theater-wide) to a quarter or less of the norm over the preceding two months. It appears to have culminated, and many analysts (like the UK Ministry of Defence, and the American Institute for the Study of War) are indicating that it appears to have culminated.
Russia’s high water mark in the Ukraine was five weeks after last year’s invasion. It has since lost back half of the territory that it gained in those five weeks.
It has also already lost over half of its operational fleets of main battle tanks, attack helicopters, Heavy (152 and 122mm) Artillery tubes, Close Air Support jets, and long range precision missiles.
Additionally, well over half of the personnel in their trained and equipped ground combat units at the start of the invasion (their trigger pullers - not counting support personnel) have been killed or wounded over the last year - over 80% by some estimates. That is across their total Active Military force structure, not just units committed to the initial invasion. Their average daily loss rate so far this year in the Ukraine exceeds what they experienced in World War One (over 15K/month).
Bottom line: Russia has been able to fire a mountain of Artillery shells and throw a lot of machinery at the Ukraine, only because they were sitting on huge stockpiles inherited from the Soviet Union. Even with their efforts to increase production, they can only make about a tenth of what they have been expending. They won’t be able to maintain their high rates of fire through this year, without massive foreign support (only China, Iran and North Korea might try, and crushing sanctions would follow if they did).
As they run out of the Soviet stockpiles (the best half is already gone), they increasingly throw Infantry at the problem, incurring greater casualties. Their Military supply chain is on track to start sputtering out for one commodity or system after another, throughout this year. We already have seen the frequency and intensity of missile barrages decline, as they run short on cruise missiles.
The numbers say that Russia loses (unless China joins the war with them). They are on the road to effectively de-militarizing their conventional forces by Christmas, at these rates of losses. The countries providing lethal Military support to the Ukraine in the Ramstein Conference, collectively have over 50 times the GDP of Russia, and have access to all of the highest technology.
Worked once for Ukraine remember Kherson lol
"Kherson will be Russian forever"
11/4/2022, 1:14:29 AM · 24 of 33
+++++ to ++++++++++
Russia will control Kherson both next week and for as long as any of us are alive
Let’s just skip to the last chapter, Vlad ends up keeping his ethnic Russian provinces at the least (Ukraine didn’t want them anyways, judging by the last 8 years of shelling the Donbass)…..at most:
Ukraine 1991-2023
Anything else is just not realistic. This war ends on Vlad’s terms, he still holds all the cards….
Question if they even still have the capability and capacity to exploit a breakthrough
———
If they did, it is unsustainable, they are spent, deenergized, deindustrialized, depopulated, infrastructure destroyed, male population between 18 and 60 depleted, and totally dependent on western welfare.
Refute if you can.
Russia’s super cannon, the West has nothing like it. Part of Vlad’s artillery hammer, pounding the Ukies. Simply amazing, we ditched our large caliber artillery years ago….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjqp9JNEW-0
Is that their 8 incher? The newer version being the 2S7M Malka?
“This war ends on Vlad’s terms”
...He takes Kyiv in three days, all NATO troops pull back out of the former Warsaw Pact countries, NATO disintegrates into disarray, and the Ukrainian public overflows with love for Putin.
“he still holds all the cards...”
Except for the revenues from the European energy market, with its coercive power over European policy. (His energy weapon (built over 3/4 century) has been completely lost.)
Or a growing economy, or a budget surplus.
Or anywhere near the conventional combat power that Russia had before the 2022 invasion. Russian fleets of major conventional combat platforms is already over half expended - the better half is gone.
Russia is not just a pariah State, not just the most heavily sanctioned country on Earth - they are now arguably the most heavily sanctioned country in history.
Bottom Line: After the horrors of the systematic planned use of torture came to light in Bucha, the Free World solidified in determination to not let Putin win. That will has only strengthened since then.
The White House just came out and said that the US considers truce in Ukraine unacceptable at the moment. So much for Vlad’s terms.
The counter-offensive is going to launch, and Russian forces are going to have to take that hit, like it or not. It has been resourced far beyond the Operations in Kharkiv and Kherson, which were disastrous for Russian forces.
So far, Russia has basically been contending with the inventories of the former Warsaw Pact - MIGs, T-72 tanks and so on (except for a few hundred howitzers and shoulder fired missiles like Javelins and Stingers). The NATO inventories that were designed to defeat the Soviet Union (whose Military was four times the size of Russia’s), as well as the Warsaw Pact, have largely not yet even entered the fray yet. They are world beating cards that “Vlad” doesn’t hold.
A much higher pain level is on the way for Russian forces during April/May. Russian weapons platforms from the 1960s will be going up against Desert Storm era Western platforms - literally the same Bradley Fighting Vehicles that cut through Soviet style T-72 tanks in Iraq (over 3,000 in 100 hours).
Because we have AirPower, more flexible and accurate
Looks like a big juicy target to me
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