Question if they even still have the capability and capacity to exploit a breakthrough
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If they did, it is unsustainable, they are spent, deenergized, deindustrialized, depopulated, infrastructure destroyed, male population between 18 and 60 depleted, and totally dependent on western welfare.
Refute if you can.
Russia’s super cannon, the West has nothing like it. Part of Vlad’s artillery hammer, pounding the Ukies. Simply amazing, we ditched our large caliber artillery years ago….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjqp9JNEW-0
Let me try and refute
Russia has no ability to exploit any breakthrough
They couldn’t when they tried feb22. What they have is manpower but even that has limits and they way they are expending them is not good. Their advantage of artillery is degrading. Questionable ammunition stocks and production but even more is tube life.
A Ukrainian breakthrough would have the same effect as before with Russian units having to fall back and most likely leave equipment behind again.
No success is guaranteed, but looking at how the big Russian offensive is going I question how deep the lineup is for Russia
Looking how Russia is mobilizing another 400000 I suggest that means that is all they have and that could be enough to hold territory as you suggest, but what a cost to keep what they had and a bit more.
So let’s say that is how it ends. What is Russia looking at?
NATO expanding, Ukraine will rearm and fortify, Poland is becoming the dominant military power in the area. Russia has blown through their soviet inheritance and will never have the equipment levels they hand before invasion. Their equipment has proven to be inferior in almost all categories so I would imagine their export market will never return to prewar levels
And let’s talk demographics, russias population is less than it was 20 years ago, and the loss of hundreds of thousands to the war and fleeing Russia will speed that process of which I see no reversal
Ukraine on the other hand I believe will recover and grow with post war reconstruction Ukraine will thrive and across the border Russia will slowly then rapidly decline especially if this war continues and China takes its opportunity to expand its territory at the expense of Russia
My two cents