Replies

“Another cauldron developing, beginning to “boil”.”

That’s true, but the big picture is less impressive. Donetsk City was captured by Russian surrogate forces (the so called “Little Green Men”) in 2014. Adiivka is a suburb of that city. The front there has hardly moved since 2014.

This is/was the big Winter Offensive that Russia touted, when they withdrew from Kherson City and the Right bank of the Dniper River - the commitment of the main body of the reinforcements mobilized back in September (Russia’s first such mobilization since WWII).

This offensive has been so unspectacular, that for weeks (back in January) analysts and commentators debated if it had begun yet. As of last week, the intensity (number of assaults) of this offensive has significantly declined (theater-wide) to a quarter or less of the norm over the preceding two months. It appears to have culminated, and many analysts (like the UK Ministry of Defence, and the American Institute for the Study of War) are indicating that it appears to have culminated.

Russia’s high water mark in the Ukraine was five weeks after last year’s invasion. It has since lost back half of the territory that it gained in those five weeks.

It has also already lost over half of its operational fleets of main battle tanks, attack helicopters, Heavy (152 and 122mm) Artillery tubes, Close Air Support jets, and long range precision missiles.

Additionally, well over half of the personnel in their trained and equipped ground combat units at the start of the invasion (their trigger pullers - not counting support personnel) have been killed or wounded over the last year - over 80% by some estimates. That is across their total Active Military force structure, not just units committed to the initial invasion. Their average daily loss rate so far this year in the Ukraine exceeds what they experienced in World War One (over 15K/month).

Bottom line: Russia has been able to fire a mountain of Artillery shells and throw a lot of machinery at the Ukraine, only because they were sitting on huge stockpiles inherited from the Soviet Union. Even with their efforts to increase production, they can only make about a tenth of what they have been expending. They won’t be able to maintain their high rates of fire through this year, without massive foreign support (only China, Iran and North Korea might try, and crushing sanctions would follow if they did).

As they run out of the Soviet stockpiles (the best half is already gone), they increasingly throw Infantry at the problem, incurring greater casualties. Their Military supply chain is on track to start sputtering out for one commodity or system after another, throughout this year. We already have seen the frequency and intensity of missile barrages decline, as they run short on cruise missiles.

The numbers say that Russia loses (unless China joins the war with them). They are on the road to effectively de-militarizing their conventional forces by Christmas, at these rates of losses. The countries providing lethal Military support to the Ukraine in the Ramstein Conference, collectively have over 50 times the GDP of Russia, and have access to all of the highest technology.