How dangerous is the COVID-19 coronavirus?

peacebyjesuscom.blogspot.com ^ | 04/02/20 | daniel1212

[daniel1212]

How dangerous is the COVID-19 coronavirus?  

[slightly edited and restructured answer I originally wrote on Quora, to the question, but which summarily deleted by them without explanation]

That depends on many factors.

The Guardian (March 21) and some other news media stated that about 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the same] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.[1]

Also, the amount of the coronavirus that you first take in may play a factor in the severity of your symptoms (other aspects being equal).[2]

CDC (March 18): among patients with COVID-19 in the United States the estimated fatality rate among persons aged 19 years and younger was 0%; 1% among persons aged 20–54 years; 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, and ranging from 10% to 27% among persons aged 85 and up.[3] 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older.[4]

Live Science reported (March 30) that,

a recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84, 1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54. South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests for COVID-19, officials found a overall fatality rate of 0.6%[5]

As of March 23 Italy and South Korea had reported no fatalities for the 10 to 19 years old age group. China reported that 0.2 percent of cases for these young people end in death[6]. 

Another study of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China, estimates that the death rate among people who were infected and developed symptoms was 1.4 percent. The study, reported yesterday in Nature Medicine, suggests that the overall CFR—including people who are infected but do not develop symptoms—will prove to be much lower in the United States than many people feared[7] .

The worldwide fatality rate (Feb. 29) for those 80 years old and up was 14.8%, almost twice that of those 70-79 years old (8.0%) and which itself is over twice as much as those aged 60-69 years old (3.6%), which rate is over twice as much as those aged 50-59 years old (1.3%) while for those aged 40-49 years old it is 0.4%, and 0.2% for those aged 10-39 years old. 

As regards health conditions, those must vulnerable are those with Cardiovascular disease, then Diabetes, and after that Diabetes, Hypertension, then Cancer.[8]

Relevant to that, more than 99% of Italy's coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions.[9]  Also, three out of four young NYC Coronavirus fatalities had other medical conditions (Mar. 27).[8] 

More on worldwide demographic and health condition fatality rates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Therefore the COVID-19 coronavirus is especially dangerous to the aged and those with certain per-existing conditions, these being the most vulnerable.

However, since you use the word “dangerous” in regards to life then we should consider other dangers to the same. In regard to that, being in the womb means one is very vulnerable as it places one in danger death, especially since America murders over 2,000 of those souls a day[11].

And if we should consider a comparative perspective,  the US death toll from Covid-19 after 2 months (Feb-March) is 5,000[12] (4–1), which is less than the average yearly fatality rate from motor vehicle accidents (over 90 people deaths per day,[13] 39,404 people in 2018 - though many are omitted) which figures to be  a 12.04 death rate per 100,000 population[14]).

And out of 169,936 preventable deaths in 2017, an estimated 125,300 preventable injury-related deaths were in homes and communities, which constitutes about 75% of all preventable injury-related deaths[15].

In addition, obesity and being overweight are together the second leading cause of preventable death in the United States[16].

Meanwhile, though we are to seek to prevent deaths, what is most important is who and what we live for, and where we will spend eternity. May all repent and believe.

Hope this helps. Peace by Jesus 

Footnotes

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-symptoms-how-spread-should-i-see-doctor

[2] COVID-19: Does the amount of virus one gets infected with affect disease severity? Experts weigh in

[3] Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19

[4] CDC: 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older

[5] How deadly is the new coronavirus?

[6] The Covid-19 risks for different age groups, explained

[7] If COVID-19 Killed 1.4% of People With Symptoms in Wuhan, the Overall Fatality Rate Is Likely to Be Much Lower Than People Feared

[8] Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19)

[9] 99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

[10] Three Out of Four Young NYC Coronavirus Fatalities Had Medical Conditions

[11] Induced Abortion in the United States

[12] US COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

[13] Crash Deaths in the US: Where We Stand

[14] Introduction - Injury Facts

[15] Obesity: Facts, Figures, Guidelines

[sbnsd]

Thank you for this summary!

[tallyhoe]

The Hospital ship has only 30 patients!

[DennisR]

Welcome! There are others, but I needed to limit it to the primary ones.

[9422WMR]

It’s no worse than the WuFlu, because that’s what it is!

[daniel1212]

Thank you, that is quite a record!, Worth posting, but as links to the sources would help then I provided them for the predictions cited, but not for your figures and percentages. ________________

Covid-19 is real. The fear-mongering and useless predictions from “experts” and those in government are not. The following dire predictions and their current status are:

February 11, 2020: “Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.’” Sarah Boseley, theguardian.com, based on comments by Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

Update : The global population is about 8,000,000,000 people. Sixty percent of that is 4,800,000,000. Currently, about 1,000,000 (0.00125%) people have been infected.

February 11, 2020: “Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?” Michael LePage and Debora Mackenzie, newscientist.com, based on comments from Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University - https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233085-could-the-new-coronavirus-really-kill-50-million-people-worldwide/

Update: 50,230 people worldwide have died from the virus.

March 7, 2020: “Study: Best-Case Scenario 15M Dead, $2.4T GDP Hit” Eric Mack, newsmax.com, based on comments from Australia National University economics professor Warwick McKibbin - https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/gdp-death-epidemic-medical/2020/03/07/id/957321/

Update: There have been 50,230 fatalities.

March 11, 2020: “Merkel warns Germany ‘up to 70 percent of country could become infected’”- https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51835856

Update: With a population of about 80,000,000, Ms. Merkel is predicting that 56,000,000 Germans will be infected. At an assumed Case Fatality Rate of 1%, 56,000 Germans will die. Currently, there have been 81,728 cases in Germany with 997 deaths.

March 12, 2020: “The experts are telling us an average of 3,060 Americans will die every day through the end of this year…” newsmax.com, referring to comments made by Andy Slavitt, the former Medicare, Medicaid chief for Barack Obama - https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/03/12/nolte-the-experts-coronavirus-death-toll-math-is-terrifying/

Update: Since the first US death on 2020/01/26, we have averaged about 84 fatalities per day.

March 17, 2020: “Imperial College has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu. With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.”

“The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.”

“American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.” - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/world/europe/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html

Update: There have been 2,921 deaths in Britain and 5,150 in the United States.

March 20, 2020: “We project that roughly 56 percent of our population – 25.5 million people – will be infected with the virus over an eight week period” CA Governor Newsom, letter to the President - https://capitolweekly.net/newsom-more-than-half-in-ca-face-coronavirus-infection/

Update: If the death rate is 1.0%, 255,000 Californians will die – 4,250 every day. Since January 1, 2020, there have been 9,937 infections and 216 deaths in CA.

March 21, 2020: “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are,’ N.J.’s top health official says as she leads the state’s coronavirus war.” - https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/im-going-to-get-it-we-all-are-njs-top-health-official-says-as-she-leads-the-states-coronavirus-war.html
Update: If 100% in NJ are infected, and 1% of those die, the NJ population of 9,000,000 will see 9,000 deaths from 9,000,000 infections.

Update: New Jersey has 22,255 infections and 355 deaths among a population of 9,000,000.

March 22, 2020: NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo predicts that 40% - 80% (of New Yorkers) will be infected by Covid-19. - https://twnews.us/us-news/ny-governor-says-up-to-80-of-state-will-get-coronavirus

Update: If 80% are infected and 1% of those die, the NYS population of 20,000,000 will see 160,000 deaths from 16,000,000 infections; Currently, 84,046 have been infected; there have been 2,220 fatalities.

March 26, 2020: “In recent days, Cuomo has said the state will need to go from its current 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds up to 140,000 hospital beds, 40000 ICU beds, and provide a minimum of 30,000 ventilators to respond to the outbreak.” Sydney Kashiqagi, - https://www.silive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/with-coronavirus-spike-on-the-horizon-si-hospitals-to-increase-capacity-to-829-beds.html

Update: 9,775 people have been hospitalized.

[brookwood]

Car accidents kill 30,000 people in the US each year. But that is fewer than 100 per day. Covid19 killed 968 people in the US yesterday. That’s a hell of a fender-bender!

[daniel1212]

How dangerous is living?

Yes, and so you will all be confined to your room until it is safe to come out, which is never since over 7,000 Americans die every day.

[MAGAthon]

the Lipsitch lie:

22 Feb: WaPo: Coronavirus outbreak edges closer to pandemic status
By Carolyn Y. Johnson, Lena H. Sun, William Wan and Joel Achenbach; Min Joo Kim in Seoul, Amanda Coletta in Washington and Chico Harlan and Stefano Pitrelli in Rome contributed to this report.

Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the HUMAN population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic. Not all of those people would get sick, he noted...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-outbreak-edges-closer-to-pandemic/2020/02/21/03afafc0-5429-11ea-9e47-59804be1dcfb_story.html

Noah Feldman (of Trump impeachment notoriety) interviews Lipsitch. asks him about his caim in WaPo that “40 to 70 percent of the HUMAN population could potentially be infected”. Lipsitch says he should have said “40 to 70 percent of the ADULT population” and that he is trying to make amends for that! goes on to attack Trump etc.

Podcast 25:49 - 28 Feb: Deep Background with Noah Feldman: The Coronavirus Isn’t Going Away
Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, predicts that between 40 to 70 percent of adults in the world will become infected with the coronavirus
https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/pushkin-industries/deep-background-with-noah-feldman/e/67663436

Lipsitch and Inglesby (from Event 201) with a veiled attack on the Trump Admin in WaPo:

27 Mar: WaPo: The U.S. is funding dangerous experiments it doesn’t want you to know about
By Marc Lipsitch and Tom Inglesby
Marc Lipsitch is a professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Tom Inglesby is director of the Center for Health Security and an environmental health and engineering professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-is-funding-dangerous-experiments-it-doesnt-want-you-to-know-about/2019/02/27/5f60e934-38ae-11e9-a2cd-307b06d0257b_story.html

24 Feb: NY Mag: Why the Trump Administration’s Coronavirus Response Continues to Raise Concerns
By Matt Stieb and Chas Danner
How bad could it get? According to Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, in the event of a pandemic, 40 to 70 percent of the world’s population could eventually become infected...
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/what-we-know-about-the-trump-admins-response-to-coronavirus.html

NY Mag links to:

Tweet: Nils Gilman, Historian of the intelligentsia. Adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. VP of Programs @berggrueninst, Deputy Editor @TheWorldPost
“‘This virus is going to be very difficult to contain,’” said Jeffrey @JeffreyShaman. ‘Personally, I don’t think we can do it.’
Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40-70% of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus.”
LINK WaPo
22 Feb 2020
https://twitter.com/nils_gilman/status/1231292898965999617

Lipsitch not making amends on CBS:

2 Mar: The Hill: Virus expert: As much as 70 percent of world’s population could get coronavirus
By Justine Coleman
A Harvard University epidemiologist says that as much as 70 percent of the world’s population could get the coronavirus.
Marc Lipsitch told CBS News in an interview airing Monday that “40 to 70 percent” of the global population could become infected with coronavirus and that it’s “almost inevitable” that the virus will impact the “entire globe.” He added that 1 percent of those who develop symptoms could die.
“That is a projection, so we will find out if it’s accurate as things go on,” Lipsitch said. “It is the best estimate that I’ve been able to make based on a combination of the mathematical models that we use to track and predict epidemics.”...
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/485602-virus-expert-as-much-as-70-percent-of-worlds

[daniel1212]

Car accidents kill 30,000 people in the US each year. But that is fewer than 100 per day. Covid19 killed 968 people in the US yesterday. That’s a hell of a fender-bender!

Actually at over 39,404 in 2018 then it was around 108 at day, yet even at an average of 90 we are speaking about year round. If CV slays about 36,000 deaths per year in the US year after year, then you would have a valid comparison. Yet while precautions are in order, we do not engage in anything close to the long-term draconian measures to prevent over 36000 deaths per year.

[daniel1212]

I watched Fox news tonight and they had Sweden on and what they were doing.. Moderate changes like when the Flu is ongoing.. Death rate did not explode!

Well, we do have this: Coronavirus: 'Open for business' Sweden sees daily death rate double in 24 hours, By Martin Williams. The nation which is bucking the European trend in the pandemic by resisting any lockdown has been hit by nearly 5000 Covid-19 cases and 239 fatalities - with 59 in the past 24 hours - the highest daily death toll to date. -

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18350722.coronavirus-open-business-sweden-sees-daily-death-rate-double-24-hours/

However, a one day report - which may include backlogged reports - does not make the case for draconian hobbling that alarmists demand.

[MAGAthon]

how much contradiction is there in the following? 70% of humanity/human population is the message the public got.

Politifact: Viral image stated on March 10, 2020 in a Facebook post:
Says Harvard scientists say the coronavirus is “spreading so fast that it will infect 70% of humanity this year.”
An epidemiologist projects 40%-70% of adults could catch coronavirus in the coming year.

This post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.)
Spokespeople for Harvard University did not immediately reply to PolitiFact’s emails asking about the post.
But news stories lend some credence to the Facebook post’s claims — and provide more information that the post fails to mention...

Mark Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics and an expert on viruses, told CBS News, among other news outlets, that 40% to 70% of the world’s adult population could be infected in the coming year...

Other estimates are similar. The Guardian reported on Feb. 11 that 60% of the global population could be infected if the virus is unchecked. On Feb. 13, Bloomberg reported that Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization, said two-thirds of the world’s population could catch COVID-19...

Our ruling
The Facebook post says Harvard scientists say the coronavirus is “spreading so fast that it will infect 70% of humanity this year.”
An epidemiologist at the university has said that 40% to 70% of the world’s adult population could be infected in the coming year.
But that is a projection, and other projections vary.
We rate this post Half True.

Our sources: (includes)
CBS News, Coronavirus may infect up to 70% of world’s population, expert warns, March 2, 2020
The Hill, Harvard scientist: coronavirus pandemic likely will infect 40-70% of world this year, Feb. 16, 2020
Bloomberg, Coronavirus could infect two-thirds of globe, research shows, Feb. 13, 2020
The Guardian, Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked,’ Feb. 11, 2020
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/11/viral-image/epidemiologist-projects-40-70-adults-could-catch-c/

Worldometers: Opinions on the coronavirus outbreak
“I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can’t give a good number”
Prof. Marc Lipsitch, Prof. of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health
Head, Harvard Ctr. Communicable Disease Dynamics
Feb. 14, 2020

“It could infect 60% of global population if unchecked”
Prof. Gabriel Leung, Expert on coronavirus epidemics, Chair of Public Health Medicine
Hong Kong University
Feb. 11, 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

Bloomberg, whose school at John Hopkins ran Event 201 liked to push similar false claims:

14 Feb: Bloomberg: Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows
By John Lauerman
So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says

[MAGAthon]

Lipsitch changed his tune with a TWEET!

2 Mar: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health: The latest on the coronavirus
Coronavirus may infect up to 70% of world’s population, expert says (CBS News)
According to Marc Lipsitch, 40% to 70% of the world’s ADULT population could become infected with the new coronavirus, and of those, 1% could die from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. (In a later TWEET, Lipsitch revised his estimates downward, to 20% to 60% of ADULTS becoming infected.)
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/hsph-in-the-news/the-latest-on-the-coronavirus/

Tweet: Marc Lipsitch
Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.
3 Mar 2020
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464

even so, Harvard Gazette can’t get the story straight. both projections are simpy made up, but there is a huge difference between percentages of adult or entire world population, so surely they can get it right:

4 Mar: Harvard Gazette: Coronavirus screening may miss two-thirds of infected travelers entering U.S.
by Alvin Powell
(Marc) Lipsitch revised downward his estimate of what proportion of the GLOBAL ADULT POPULATION will ultimately be infected by the virus, officially named SARS-CoV-2, to between 20 and 60 percent. He said that the wide range is an indication of continued uncertainty in the data, but that the downward revision from an earlier estimate of between 40 and 70 percent stemmed from lower estimates of the virus’ transmissibility.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/hundreds-of-u-s-coronavirus-cases-may-have-slipped-through-screenings/

20 Mar and the hallowed Harvard still gets it wrong:

20 Mar: Harvard Mag: COVID-19: An Emergency, and a Long-Term Challenge
by Jonathan Shaw
Lipsitch previously estimated that 20 percent to 60 percent of the GLOBAL POPULATION would likely become infected with the virus...
https://harvardmagazine.com/2020/03/lipsitch-call-to-action

garbage. but it did the job. got the public to panic.

[daniel1212]

Worldometers: Opinions on the coronavirus outbreak “I think it is likely we will see a global pandemic. If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion is asymptomatic, I can’t give a good number”

Meaning since there is not estimate of those who show no symptoms or for the number that are tested, then any number can be assigned to those infected, since everyone on the planet could conceivably be infected, and thus the estimates cannot be said to be wrong. The science is settled.

[vpintheak]

For sure.

[caww]

[DennisR]

Thanks for doing that. I did not include the entire link, because I copied it from a three-page PowerPoint file I have been maintaining. I just give the top-level URL for simplicity in that file. I just might make what you posted a thread all by itself so people can comment with other false and fearful predictions.

[9422WMR]

And the 1000 bed hospital ship Mercy is treating 12 people 4/3/20.
Twelve. A dozen.
They were going to send all none WuFlu cases to Mercy. Guess there are no emergency room cases in New York now.

[daniel1212]

Thanks for doing that. I did not include the entire link, because I copied it from a three-page PowerPoint file I have been maintaining. I just give the top-level URL for simplicity in that file. I just might make what you posted a thread all by itself so people can comment with other false and fearful predictions.

Yes, if you solicited a collection you could maybe create a concise selection as here How dangerous is the COVID-19 coronavirus? , by the grace of God.

[DennisR]

Covid-19 is real. The fear-mongering and useless predictions from “experts” and those in government are not. The following dire predictions and their current status are:

February 11, 2020: “Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.’” Sarah Boseley, theguardian.com, based on comments by Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist
Update: The global population is about 8,000,000,000 people. Sixty percent of that is 4,800,000,000. Currently, about 1,413,415 (0.02%) people have been infected.

February 11, 2020: “Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?” Michael LePage and Debora Mackenzie, newscientist.com, based on comments from Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University
Update: 81,200 people worldwide have died from the virus.

March 7, 2020: “Study: Best-Case Scenario 15M Dead, $2.4T GDP Hit” Eric Mack, newsmax.com, based on comments from Australia National University economics professor Warwick McKibbin
Update: There have been 12,474 fatalities.

March 11, 2020: “Merkel warns Germany ‘up to 70 percent of country could become infected’” www.thelocal.de
Update: With a population of about 80,000,000, Ms. Merkl is predicting that 56,000,000 Germans will be infected. At an assumed Case Fatality Rate of 1%, 56,000 Germans will die. Currently, there have been 107,458 cases in Germany with 1,893 deaths.

March 12, 2020: “The experts are telling us an average of 3,060 Americans will die every day through the end of this year…” newsmax.com, referring to comments made by Andy Slavitt, the former Medicare, Medicaid chief for Barack Obama
Update: Since the first US death on 2020/01/26, we have averaged about 181 fatalities per day.

March 17, 2020: “Imperial College has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu. With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.”
“The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.”
“American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.”
Update: There have been 6,159 deaths in Britain and 12,474 in the United States.

March 20, 2020: “We project that roughly 56 percent of our population – 25.5 million people – will be infected with the virus over an eight week period” CA Governor Newsom, letter to the President
Update: If the death rate is 1.0%, 255,000 Californians will die – 4,250 every day. Since January 1, 2020, there have been 16,363 infections and 388 deaths in CA.

March 21, 2020: “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are,’ N.J.’s top health official says as she leads the state’s coronavirus war.” nj.comUpdate: If 100% in NJ are infected, and 1% of those die, the NJ population of 9,000,000 will see 9,000 deaths from 9,000,000 infections.Update: New Jersey has 41,090 infections and 1,003 deaths among a population of 9,000,000.

March 22, 2020: NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo predicts that 40% - 80% (of New Yorkers) will be infected by Covid-19. cnn.com
Update: If 80% are infected and 1% of those die, the NYS population of 20,000,000 will see 160,000 deaths from 16,000,000 infections; Currently, 131,830 have been infected; there have been 4,758 fatalities.

March 26, 2020: “In recent days, Cuomo has said the state will need to go from its current 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds up to 140,000 hospital beds, 40000 ICU beds, and provide a minimum of 30,000 ventilators to respond to the outbreak.” Sydney Kashiqagi, silive.com
Update: 19,177 people have been hospitalized. Unsure of how many are still hospitalized.

Notes:
1. All underlines in the above were added by the author to make comparisons between predictions and reality.
2. The original document that contains this information is in PowerPoint. Therefore, only the top-level URL is stated for aesthetic purposes. For the full URLs, refer to Post http://freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=3831178,45.

[daniel1212]

Covid-19 is real. The fear-mongering and useless predictions from “experts” and those in government are not. The following dire predictions and their current status are:

February 11, 2020: “Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.’” Sarah Boseley, theguardian.com, based on comments by Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist
Update: The global population is about 8,000,000,000 people. Sixty percent of that is 4,800,000,000. Currently, about 1,413,415 (0.02%) people have been infected.

February 11, 2020: “Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?” Michael LePage and Debora Mackenzie, newscientist.com, based on comments from Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University
Update: 81,200 people worldwide have died from the virus.

March 7, 2020: “Study: Best-Case Scenario 15M Dead, $2.4T GDP Hit” Eric Mack, newsmax.com, based on comments from Australia National University economics professor Warwick McKibbin
Update: There have been 12,474 fatalities.

March 11, 2020: “Merkel warns Germany ‘up to 70 percent of country could become infected’” www.thelocal.de
Update: With a population of about 80,000,000, Ms. Merkl is predicting that 56,000,000 Germans will be infected. At an assumed Case Fatality Rate of 1%, 56,000 Germans will die. Currently, there have been 107,458 cases in Germany with 1,893 deaths.

March 12, 2020: “The experts are telling us an average of 3,060 Americans will die every day through the end of this year…” newsmax.com, referring to comments made by Andy Slavitt, the former Medicare, Medicaid chief for Barack Obama
Update: Since the first US death on 2020/01/26, we have averaged about 181 fatalities per day.

March 17, 2020: “Imperial College has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu. With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.”
“The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.”
“American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.”
Update: There have been 6,159 deaths in Britain and 12,474 in the United States.

March 20, 2020: “We project that roughly 56 percent of our population – 25.5 million people – will be infected with the virus over an eight week period” CA Governor Newsom, letter to the President
Update: If the death rate is 1.0%, 255,000 Californians will die – 4,250 every day. Since January 1, 2020, there have been 16,363 infections and 388 deaths in CA.

March 21, 2020: “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are,’ N.J.’s top health official says as she leads the state’s coronavirus war.” nj.comUpdate: If 100% in NJ are infected, and 1% of those die, the NJ population of 9,000,000 will see 9,000 deaths from 9,000,000 infections.Update: New Jersey has 41,090 infections and 1,003 deaths among a population of 9,000,000.

March 22, 2020: NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo predicts that 40% - 80% (of New Yorkers) will be infected by Covid-19. cnn.com
Update: If 80% are infected and 1% of those die, the NYS population of 20,000,000 will see 160,000 deaths from 16,000,000 infections; Currently, 131,830 have been infected; there have been 4,758 fatalities.

March 26, 2020: “In recent days, Cuomo has said the state will need to go from its current 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds up to 140,000 hospital beds, 40000 ICU beds, and provide a minimum of 30,000 ventilators to respond to the outbreak.” Sydney Kashiqagi, silive.com
Update: 19,177 people have been hospitalized. Unsure of how many are still hospitalized.

Notes:
1. All underlines in the above were added by the author to make comparisons between predictions and reality.
2. The original document that contains this information is in PowerPoint. Therefore, only the top-level URL is stated for aesthetic purposes. For the full URLs, refer to Post http://freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=3831178,45.

Quite a collection, thanks, although your bottom link just sends me to a comment box.