Covid-19 is real. The fear-mongering and useless predictions from “experts” and those in government are not. The following dire predictions and their current status are:
February 11, 2020: “Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.’” Sarah Boseley, theguardian.com, based on comments by Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist
Update: The global population is about 8,000,000,000 people. Sixty percent of that is 4,800,000,000. Currently, about 1,413,415 (0.02%) people have been infected.
February 11, 2020: “Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?” Michael LePage and Debora Mackenzie, newscientist.com, based on comments from Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University
Update: 81,200 people worldwide have died from the virus.
March 7, 2020: “Study: Best-Case Scenario 15M Dead, $2.4T GDP Hit” Eric Mack, newsmax.com, based on comments from Australia National University economics professor Warwick McKibbin
Update: There have been 12,474 fatalities.
March 11, 2020: “Merkel warns Germany ‘up to 70 percent of country could become infected’” www.thelocal.de
Update: With a population of about 80,000,000, Ms. Merkl is predicting that 56,000,000 Germans will be infected. At an assumed Case Fatality Rate of 1%, 56,000 Germans will die. Currently, there have been 107,458 cases in Germany with 1,893 deaths.
March 12, 2020: “The experts are telling us an average of 3,060 Americans will die every day through the end of this year…” newsmax.com, referring to comments made by Andy Slavitt, the former Medicare, Medicaid chief for Barack Obama
Update: Since the first US death on 2020/01/26, we have averaged about 181 fatalities per day.
March 17, 2020: “Imperial College has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu. With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.”
“The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.”
“American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.”
Update: There have been 6,159 deaths in Britain and 12,474 in the United States.
March 20, 2020: “We project that roughly 56 percent of our population – 25.5 million people – will be infected with the virus over an eight week period” CA Governor Newsom, letter to the President
Update: If the death rate is 1.0%, 255,000 Californians will die – 4,250 every day. Since January 1, 2020, there have been 16,363 infections and 388 deaths in CA.
March 21, 2020: “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are,’ N.J.’s top health official says as she leads the state’s coronavirus war.” nj.com Update: If 100% in NJ are infected, and 1% of those die, the NJ population of 9,000,000 will see 9,000 deaths from 9,000,000 infections. Update: New Jersey has 41,090 infections and 1,003 deaths among a population of 9,000,000.
March 22, 2020: NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo predicts that 40% - 80% (of New Yorkers) will be infected by Covid-19. cnn.com
Update: If 80% are infected and 1% of those die, the NYS population of 20,000,000 will see 160,000 deaths from 16,000,000 infections; Currently, 131,830 have been infected; there have been 4,758 fatalities.
March 26, 2020: “In recent days, Cuomo has said the state will need to go from its current 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds up to 140,000 hospital beds, 40000 ICU beds, and provide a minimum of 30,000 ventilators to respond to the outbreak.” Sydney Kashiqagi, silive.com
Update: 19,177 people have been hospitalized. Unsure of how many are still hospitalized.
Notes:
1. All underlines in the above were added by the author to make comparisons between predictions and reality.
2. The original document that contains this information is in PowerPoint. Therefore, only the top-level URL is stated for aesthetic purposes. For the full URLs, refer to Post http://freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=3831178,45.
Covid-19 is real. The fear-mongering and useless predictions from “experts” and those in government are not. The following dire predictions and their current status are:
February 11, 2020: “Coronavirus ‘could infect 60% of global population if unchecked.’” Sarah Boseley, theguardian.com, based on comments by Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist
Update: The global population is about 8,000,000,000 people. Sixty percent of that is 4,800,000,000. Currently, about 1,413,415 (0.02%) people have been infected.
February 11, 2020: “Could the new coronavirus really kill 50 million people worldwide?” Michael LePage and Debora Mackenzie, newscientist.com, based on comments from Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University
Update: 81,200 people worldwide have died from the virus.
March 7, 2020: “Study: Best-Case Scenario 15M Dead, $2.4T GDP Hit” Eric Mack, newsmax.com, based on comments from Australia National University economics professor Warwick McKibbin
Update: There have been 12,474 fatalities.
March 11, 2020: “Merkel warns Germany ‘up to 70 percent of country could become infected’” www.thelocal.de
Update: With a population of about 80,000,000, Ms. Merkl is predicting that 56,000,000 Germans will be infected. At an assumed Case Fatality Rate of 1%, 56,000 Germans will die. Currently, there have been 107,458 cases in Germany with 1,893 deaths.
March 12, 2020: “The experts are telling us an average of 3,060 Americans will die every day through the end of this year…” newsmax.com, referring to comments made by Andy Slavitt, the former Medicare, Medicaid chief for Barack Obama
Update: Since the first US death on 2020/01/26, we have averaged about 181 fatalities per day.
March 17, 2020: “Imperial College has advised the government on its response to previous epidemics, including SARS, avian flu and swine flu. With ties to the World Health Organization and a team of 50 scientists, led by a prominent epidemiologist, Neil Ferguson, Imperial is treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.”
“The report, which warned that an uncontrolled spread of the disease could cause as many as 510,000 deaths in Britain, triggered a sudden shift in the government’s comparatively relaxed response to the virus.”
“American officials said the report, which projected up to 2.2 million deaths in the United States from such a spread, also influenced the White House to strengthen its measures to isolate members of the public.”
Update: There have been 6,159 deaths in Britain and 12,474 in the United States.
March 20, 2020: “We project that roughly 56 percent of our population – 25.5 million people – will be infected with the virus over an eight week period” CA Governor Newsom, letter to the President
Update: If the death rate is 1.0%, 255,000 Californians will die – 4,250 every day. Since January 1, 2020, there have been 16,363 infections and 388 deaths in CA.
March 21, 2020: “I’m definitely going to get it. We all are,’ N.J.’s top health official says as she leads the state’s coronavirus war.” nj.com Update: If 100% in NJ are infected, and 1% of those die, the NJ population of 9,000,000 will see 9,000 deaths from 9,000,000 infections. Update: New Jersey has 41,090 infections and 1,003 deaths among a population of 9,000,000.
March 22, 2020: NYS Governor Andrew Cuomo predicts that 40% - 80% (of New Yorkers) will be infected by Covid-19. cnn.com
Update: If 80% are infected and 1% of those die, the NYS population of 20,000,000 will see 160,000 deaths from 16,000,000 infections; Currently, 131,830 have been infected; there have been 4,758 fatalities.
March 26, 2020: “In recent days, Cuomo has said the state will need to go from its current 53,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds up to 140,000 hospital beds, 40000 ICU beds, and provide a minimum of 30,000 ventilators to respond to the outbreak.” Sydney Kashiqagi, silive.com
Update: 19,177 people have been hospitalized. Unsure of how many are still hospitalized.
Notes:
1. All underlines in the above were added by the author to make comparisons between predictions and reality.
2. The original document that contains this information is in PowerPoint. Therefore, only the top-level URL is stated for aesthetic purposes. For the full URLs, refer to Post http://freerepublic.com/perl/post?id=3831178,45.
Quite a collection, thanks, although your bottom link just sends me to a comment box.