Posted on 09/17/2012 1:51:18 PM PDT by Leto
A simple rebalance model anyone can use If anyone wants to rebalance polls that are of interest to them, here is a simple model that will work as long as the poll provides a intra-party voting preference. You can cut and paste the formulas or copy to a google spreadsheet. You simple fill in the data matrix on the left and the outcome is the matrix on the right.I have left the "=" sign off of the cells on the right so just add them and you are good to go. This is not mysterious and I think polling would become better and more honest if it was widely used. The example is an ARG Ohio poll that had the sample 42D, 32R, and 26I and O+3%. Since Ohio only went for Obama D+7 over R we can check what the outcome would be if the poll had 38D, 35R, and 32I and the outcome is projected to be Romney+5.33%. UPDATE 9/17: I would also suggest putting this helpful aid in your toolbox Very often a poll will "overlook" or "neglect" to document the Party ID of the poll sample. If any intra-party breakdown is available one can use the referenced calculator to determine the ID numbers the poll uses. It can be any intra-party breakdown not just for voting. It can be for job approval or any other question asked in the poll. If it doesn't produce a commonsense answer there is a disconnect in the poll that should make it's internal consistency suspect.
I wish I could upload my spreadsheet for people to play with. I usually take a poll, and look at it using the 2010 turnout model, the 2008 model and the current party ID affiliation.
The polls on D’s voting for Obama have varied a bit going from 85% up to 94% with Romney scoring as high as 11% among rats IIRC.
Fox news talking right now ;) about the weighting of polls maybe they are reading the conservative blog sphere.
Fox with Rove and Trippi has been doing a lot to mislead people with their polls without noting (until this evening) the weighting of the various polls.
Well, I was thinking in terms of the post-meltdown/campaign suspension world. You are correct. Palin led after the convention, for a while in fact. Then..the meltdown and after that there was no turning back. That is sort of the time period that I was thinking of.
So in 2010, even though the R turnout was only slightly higher, it was a GOP blow out because all the independents voted against the D’s?
Is that the correct way to understand that data point?
Create a Google account, and upload your spreadsheet to Google Docs.
Then, people can play with the spreadsheet in their browser, or download it and use Excel.
Long overdue.
McPain seemed most unhappy when it looked like he might win! He wanted to be the Willkie-Dewey-Dole sacrificial lamb of 2008.
Yeah, when you looks at the polls now they all have Romney leading Obozo by 8-15% among indies. to in order to show Obozo leading they assume far more dems voting than previous elections.
The enthusiastic conservative turnout in 2010 led to one of the greatest reversals of all time in the House — and there is no reason to think anything has changed in 2 years; in fact, the People are now desperate to get rid of this incompetent boob.
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