Posted on 09/17/2012 1:51:18 PM PDT by Leto
I wish I could upload my spreadsheet for people to play with. I usually take a poll, and look at it using the 2010 turnout model, the 2008 model and the current party ID affiliation.
The polls on D’s voting for Obama have varied a bit going from 85% up to 94% with Romney scoring as high as 11% among rats IIRC.
Fox news talking right now ;) about the weighting of polls maybe they are reading the conservative blog sphere.
Fox with Rove and Trippi has been doing a lot to mislead people with their polls without noting (until this evening) the weighting of the various polls.
Well, I was thinking in terms of the post-meltdown/campaign suspension world. You are correct. Palin led after the convention, for a while in fact. Then..the meltdown and after that there was no turning back. That is sort of the time period that I was thinking of.
So in 2010, even though the R turnout was only slightly higher, it was a GOP blow out because all the independents voted against the D’s?
Is that the correct way to understand that data point?
Create a Google account, and upload your spreadsheet to Google Docs.
Then, people can play with the spreadsheet in their browser, or download it and use Excel.
Long overdue.
McPain seemed most unhappy when it looked like he might win! He wanted to be the Willkie-Dewey-Dole sacrificial lamb of 2008.
Yeah, when you looks at the polls now they all have Romney leading Obozo by 8-15% among indies. to in order to show Obozo leading they assume far more dems voting than previous elections.
The enthusiastic conservative turnout in 2010 led to one of the greatest reversals of all time in the House — and there is no reason to think anything has changed in 2 years; in fact, the People are now desperate to get rid of this incompetent boob.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.