Posted on 09/25/2008 11:05:08 AM PDT by RogerWilko
How in the H*LL can these numbers be so far apart considering what today's polls are showing?
Something fishy's goin' on!!
Soros is buying!
Who cares?
its a good time to buy if your into it.
Probably because of the bad poll yesterday? The one with Obama ahead 9 points?
This places operates off of the news of the day, not anything else. They also had Bush down on election day, because of the media’s bogus exit polls.
After the bailout, McCain lost my vote.. I was getting all my friends to vote for him.
Not anymore.
Soros is buying, so Intrade is lying!
And Mitt Romney was over 80% to be McCain’s VP. So much for that.
They’ve only been separated by a few points everytime I’ve seen it, that’s why something seems CRAZY! Especially since McCain is mostly UP right now!
InTrade is a consensus interpretation of the Presidential contest by those that trade the contracts.
A lot has been happening in the past couple of days. Until the polls settle down and the traders see the trend, it will continue to gyrate.
So an all-out Marxist, sympathetic to terrorist supporting nations, is better?
I wasn’t really sweating it, I was just wondering why he picked up such a huge advantage since he hasn’t done JACK SQUAT to earn it!
They must be believing that lame ABC poll that came out with NOBAMA ahead by 9 points or something!
Do you need a Whaambulance or can you walk over to the Obama camp on your own?
Don’t even waste your time trying to be logical with idiots. It’s futile.
BTW, you should have welcomed him to FR.
yeah.....right.....you’re spamming all posts. So, you were a McCain supporter (was GOING to vote, was GOING to send money, was GOING to tell friends) and NOW you’ve just had it. Okay, take your vote, your 25.00 and your 2 verry verry best friends and go vote for Barry. We’ll do it without you.
Maybe the europeans have just learned that Obama is about ready to launch “Operation In your face!”
I just averaged down on my McCain. I bought a bunch at 49ish. I can’t believe he is down like this. Oh well, buying opportunity.
I think intrade is garbage as far as predictive ability of political candidates...and I don’t understand what else it’s good for, either. I have several acquaintances that this this is a crystal ball.
New Freddie and Fannie bail out investment scheme? Corner the market on in-trade to pay their country club fees for the next year?
If you are this mad about INTRADE, I suggest you get your revenge by purchasing some shares of McCain.
So now you think Obama's better? How does he stand on this issue exactly?
demoskowitz. Almost looks like an anagram for "democrats for kos".
Right. I traded there in 2006, and got my butt kicked when I bought the GOP to retain the Senate at 75% two weeks before the election. They had Hillary as a big favorite all thru 2007.
If Intrade got duped by the 2004 exit polls, what makes them any wiser than us?
This is the same Wall Street crowd who are now asking to be bailed out by you and me.
At a minimum, I think they have a serious problem evaluating risk.
When Intrade starts being the standard for electing anyone, then, I’ll look at it.
Just a emotional snapshot
Enjoy your Obama years. Maybe he will give you a pass on your elevated tax rate since you helped elect him.
Remember, INTRADE is not a poll.
If one of these guys gets up by 10% in the polls, he’ll be at 90%+++ on INTRADE, because it’s all or nothing. If you bet on the right guy, even if he wins by one electoral vote, then you win. So if a guy gets a big lead, INTRADE will tip dramatically in his direction. INTRADE is only close when the polling is very close, but Obama has led by 3%+ on RCP for the last few days which is enough to push is lead up quite a bit on the betting sites.
The spin cycle has started in the wash out of candidates. Novemeber 4th is close and some are in panic mode.
forget intrade,relax and wait till the weekly reader poll comes out in october. the kids vote has been 100% right every election since 1956.
Astroturfing ...
Its just a friendly pollster trying to pull Onada’s chestnuts out of the fire—one more time. The man got caught asleep at the switch—again—with McCain’s call to postpone electioneering until a bailout package is passed.
Why in the hell do so many care about that site? It has no special insight into the election. At all. It merely reacts to the same news we get everyday. It’s completely useless.
Hold onto your vote buddy boy. There isn’t a bailout yet!
Another dim lie. Repubs haven’t signed on to this thing. yet...
Must be the same idiots that habituate casinos and waste their money in the stock market.
A joke post.
2) Word is that McQueeg is going to vote against the Reid-Pelosi-Frank bailout. Good on him if he does.
Hold your water. Lots will happen before they get this done.
Will all due respect, this is just plain stupid. There is no argument you can possibly make that would lead any rational person to conclude that Obama-Biden would be better for this country than Palin-McC....er, McCain-Palin.
I've been waiting for that one, since the kids ALWAYS get it right. This should be a good one!
Intrade is a joke. How’d they do in the Veepstakes pick, anyway?
Not at all. It’s **very** useful for creating arbitrages. Tch, tch, tch. Use more imagination, m’friend.
Simple. ABC weighted that poll to include 54%Ds and only 38%Rs. The spread between the two parties should never be more than 4 points -- if it is, it is no longer a representative sample and can therefore be dismissed.
Nothing fishy at all. It reflects the “market’s” expectations. If you have convictions the other way, then now is a great time to buy McCain.
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