[silverleaf]

Soros is buying!

[kesg]

Who cares?

[snarkytart]

Probably because of the bad poll yesterday? The one with Obama ahead 9 points?

This places operates off of the news of the day, not anything else. They also had Bush down on election day, because of the media’s bogus exit polls.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

And Mitt Romney was over 80% to be McCain’s VP. So much for that.

[The_Victor]

Don't whine about it, it's a money making opportunity. McCain is under valued. BUY BUY BUY!

[justlurking]

Just relax.

InTrade is a consensus interpretation of the Presidential contest by those that trade the contracts.

A lot has been happening in the past couple of days. Until the polls settle down and the traders see the trend, it will continue to gyrate.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

[cw35]

I just averaged down on my McCain. I bought a bunch at 49ish. I can’t believe he is down like this. Oh well, buying opportunity.

[Mamzelle]

I think intrade is garbage as far as predictive ability of political candidates...and I don’t understand what else it’s good for, either. I have several acquaintances that this this is a crystal ball.

[listenhillary]

New Freddie and Fannie bail out investment scheme? Corner the market on in-trade to pay their country club fees for the next year?

[Revolting cat!]

[mlocher]

If you are this mad about INTRADE, I suggest you get your revenge by purchasing some shares of McCain.

[Wilder Effect]

Right. I traded there in 2006, and got my butt kicked when I bought the GOP to retain the Senate at 75% two weeks before the election. They had Hillary as a big favorite all thru 2007.

If Intrade got duped by the 2004 exit polls, what makes them any wiser than us?

[KarlInOhio]

How much money is traded on these contracts and how much would I have to throw in to shift it by 6 points? As stated by others, this could be an attempt by Zerobama supporters with money who figure this is cheap advertising. The assumption is that since people are betting real money on this they are more likely to be honest about their picks than in a poll. However, with enough money you could shift Intrade your way much like a bar hiring people to sit around, drink and have fun to make it seem like a fun place to be so you show up. Thus, unlike a sports bet, putting my money in could have a real effect on the final results if I put in enough.

[mojito]

This is the same Wall Street crowd who are now asking to be bailed out by you and me.

At a minimum, I think they have a serious problem evaluating risk.

[101voodoo]

When Intrade starts being the standard for electing anyone, then, I’ll look at it.

[Wilder Effect]

Before the Lehman Brothers mess, they had Obama at 44% also and McCain at 56%.

Just a emotional snapshot

[Cousin Eddie]

Remember, INTRADE is not a poll.

If one of these guys gets up by 10% in the polls, he’ll be at 90%+++ on INTRADE, because it’s all or nothing. If you bet on the right guy, even if he wins by one electoral vote, then you win. So if a guy gets a big lead, INTRADE will tip dramatically in his direction. INTRADE is only close when the polling is very close, but Obama has led by 3%+ on RCP for the last few days which is enough to push is lead up quite a bit on the betting sites.

[Resolute Conservative]

The spin cycle has started in the wash out of candidates. Novemeber 4th is close and some are in panic mode.

[kingattax]

forget intrade,relax and wait till the weekly reader poll comes out in october. the kids vote has been 100% right every election since 1956.