Posted on 09/25/2023 6:54:11 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
Why Iran and Afghanistan are headed to war | 15:40
CaspianReport | 1.36M subscribers | 910,087 views | September 14, 2023
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Transcript 0:00 · some actions have an end but no 0:03 · beginning some begin but do not end it 0:06 · all depends upon where the Observer is 0:08 · standing on May 27th tensions on The 0:12 · Afghan Iranian border boiled over near 0:15 · the city of zaran two people were killed 0:18 · two more were injured but while both 0:20 · sides quickly de-escalated the situation 0:23 · the incident highlights a deeply 0:25 · entrenched border dispute one that 0:27 · predates both governments yet this is no 0:31 · conflict over territory instead the tap 0:34 · rout of Afghan Iranian tensions is and 0:37 · always has been water rights since the 0:40 · 1870s water access in the syan Basin has 0:44 · formed a geopolitical friction point the 0:47 · Locust is the Helman river which runs 0:49 · through Afghanistan before terminating 0:51 · in eastern Iran the past few decades 0:54 · have seen rainfall drop precipitously 0:57 · the hamon Lakes once a civilization 1:00 · cradle are bone dry and now climate 1:03 · change threatens to convert the region 1:05 · into a permanent Dust Bowl the crisis is 1:08 · a force multiplier for a host of 1:10 · political sore points border security 1:12 · issues Refugee flows islamist militancy 1:16 · and illicit Goods trafficking all add to 1:18 · a lingering sense of unease mistrust and 1:21 · anxiety it remains to be seen whether 1:23 · these differences can be resolved by 1:26 · diplomatic means or otherwise Nations 1:29 · have gone to War for less one thing we 1:32 · do know water is more than just a bunch 1:34 · of atoms it possesses the power to shape 1:37 · both geography and 1:53 · politics the Iranian Afghan conflict 1:55 · seems far away but its Ripple effects 1:58 · are global American household debt 2:00 · levels are already reaching all-time 2:03 · highs and uncertainty over interest 2:06 · rates threatens to sink the Investments 2:08 · the upper middle class worked years to 2:11 · build for centuries High net worth 2:14 · investors 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· disclosures at 3:20 · [Music] 3:28 · masterworks.io by sparse rainfall and 3:31 · glacial melt managing these scarce 3:34 · resources is a matter of vital 3:36 · importance for Afghanistan but since 3:38 · three of the country's five major rivers 3:40 · cross into neighboring states Afghan 3:43 · water policy is inherently 3:46 · geopolitical of all the regional Rivers 3:49 · the most important is the helmund which 3:52 · runs through Afghanistan before 3:53 · terminating in the hamon wetlands on the 3:56 · Iranian border for the past five 3:58 · millennia these marshes have formed a 4:01 · cradle of civilization their importance 4:04 · to Regional agriculture is attested to 4:06 · an ancient literature and the religious 4:09 · texts of 4:10 · Zoroastrianism yet since the mid 19th 4:13 · century a British imposed border has 4:16 · complicated the issue of water rights 4:18 · though 95% of the Helman straddles 4:21 · Afghan territory decisions made Upstream 4:24 · yield grave consequences for the Iranian 4:26 · Hammons and while efforts to codify 4:29 · water rights have been pursued by both 4:31 · States no final deal has ever been 4:34 · reached in other words the dispute has 4:36 · no legal basis the closest thing to a 4:39 · binding agreement is the 4:41 · 1973 helmund water treaty which forms 4:45 · the Bedrock of bilateral water policy 4:48 · under the treaty Iran can draw 22 cubic 4:52 · M of water from the river per second 4:54 · with an option to buy another 4 cubic 4:57 · m/s in years of normal range rainfall 5:00 · this amounts to roughly 820 million 5:03 · cubic M of water per year but since the 5:06 · agreement was never ratified enforcement 5:08 · depended on good faith something in as 5:11 · short supply as the water itself 5:14 · political Discord in both signatory 5:16 · States has not helped either the 1973 5:20 · Afghan coup 1979 Iranian Revolution 5:23 · Soviet Afghan war the us-led Afghan 5:26 · occupation and the rise and subsequent 5:29 · reemergence of the Taliban have only 5:31 · imposed further obstacles as such 5:34 · long-term infrastructure planning has 5:37 · proceeded in fits and starts and today 5:40 · much of Afghanistan's water 5:42 · infrastructure consists of holdover 5:44 · Works mostly completed in the 1950s by 5:48 · American engineering firms these include 5:51 · the 44 M High AR gandab Dam Northeast of 5:55 · kahar and the kajaki dam 115 km Upstream 6:00 · from 6:01 · lashara these dams were intended to 6:03 · improve irrigation control flooding and 6:06 · provide hydroelectricity developing 6:09 · Afghan self-sufficiency in power 6:11 · generation yet they were built without 6:14 · first undertaking proper soil and 6:16 · topography studies and over time this 6:19 · contributed to Downstream salinization 6:22 · and damage to the hamon Lakes ecosystem 6:25 · not to be outdone by the Afghans on poor 6:28 · planning in 1983 the Iranian Fisheries 6:32 · company introduced alien fish species to 6:35 · the Hammon Lakes this caused immense 6:38 · damage as the invasive species devoured 6:40 · the lakes's Reeds undermining the 6:43 · ecosystem's food supply and in the 1990s 6:46 · the first Taliban government exacerbated 6:49 · the problem by choking off the hammon's 6:51 · water supply at the kajaki dam bad 6:54 · decision after bad decision Afghan 6:57 · Iranian relations soured the situation 7:01 · became so tense that in 1998 after a 7:04 · Taliban raid on the Iranian Consulate in 7:08 · Mazar Sharif killed eight Iranian 7:10 · diplomats tahan amassed nearly 200,000 7:14 · troops on the border Iran opted not to 7:18 · invade but the situation demonstrated 7:21 · how quickly disputes concerning water 7:23 · rights could boil over into full-blown 7:26 · conflict thereafter tan continued to 7:29 · support anti-taliban groups including 7:32 · the Northern Alliance which was subsumed 7:35 · into the new government following the 7:36 · American lead invasion in 2001 even so 7:41 · Iran's hard line on the Taliban was 7:43 · never set in stone instead relations 7:46 · between the two sides oscillate 7:49 · depending on whoever controls Kabul at 7:51 · any one time thus the period following 7:54 · the taliban's 2001 outing by the US 7:58 · proved one of reapo encroachment the 8:00 · water dispute continued though this time 8:02 · with the Afghan Republic yet the focus 8:05 · of tensions shifted away from the 8:07 · taliban's treatment of Afghanistan's 8:09 · Shia minority and towards the Afghan 8:12 · Republic's apparent tolerance of the 8:14 · opium trade and its status as an 8:16 · American vessel supposedly when you go 8:19 · out looking for trouble you will find 8:21 · trouble throughout the US occupation 8:24 · Iran was one of the few states that 8:27 · engaged the Taliban efforts that 8:29 · expanded after the emergence of Isis K 8:32 · in 2015 the purely domestic orientation 8:35 · of the Taliban no doubt proved less 8:37 · irksome than the Islamic State's 8:39 · transnational Ambitions which threatened 8:42 · to stoke Sunni uprisings within Iran's 8:45 · borders accordingly Tan's complaints 8:48 · turned towards the new water 8:50 · infrastructures being built within the 8:52 · cyan Basin which it alleged would choke 8:55 · off Iran's water supply this includes 8:57 · the Afghan Turkish built Kamal Khan 9:00 · irrigation Dam completed in early 2021 9:04 · with a capacity of 50 million cubic M of 9:07 · water and after the 2020 Doha agreement 9:10 · signaled an American withdrawal the tan 9:13 · Taliban engagement only deepened further 9:16 · yet few anticipated the speed of the 9:19 · Afghan Republic's collapse which caught 9:22 · even the Iranians off guard this 9:24 · coincided with the height of the coid 9:26 · pandemic and widespread water shortages 9:28 · which prompted Nationwide protests in 9:31 · Iran along with a heavy-handed 9:33 · government response the combination of 9:35 · domestic and Regional instability soon 9:37 · stoked clashes along the border and when 9:40 · in July 2022 Iran's president ibraim RI 9:44 · ordered his cabinet to push Kabul for a 9:47 · greater water share the Taliban 9:49 · responded by Reina dura the second phase 9:52 · of the kajaki dam threatening to impound 9:55 · another 1 billion cubic M of water and 9:58 · place Iran's water security under even 10:01 · greater strain roughly at the same time 10:04 · tensions increased further following a 10:06 · new influx of Afghan refugees this 10:09 · fueled Iran's long-standing concerns 10:12 · regarding separatism in its Southeastern 10:15 · cyan and baluchistan provinces since 10:18 · 2007 tan has banned Afghan refugees from 10:22 · settling there largely due to anxieties 10:25 · concerning the Region's status as a 10:27 · Sunni dominated marginalized and 10:30 · water-deprived Borderland which is an 10:32 · ideal concoction to Kickstart a 10:34 · separatist movement even so there are 10:37 · some matters on which both sides share 10:39 · an interest in cooperating though poppy 10:42 · cultivation soared under the US 10:45 · installed Afghan Republic the Taliban 10:48 · has since largely eradicated the trade 10:51 · following an Amnesty on the 2022 Harvest 10:54 · stringent enforcement of 10:56 · counternarcotics has seen opium 10:58 · production Fall by 4 fths in helmund a 11:02 · Taliban stronghold it is down a 11:04 · staggering 11:06 · 99% many farmers have switched to wheat 11:09 · yet while this has helped alleviate food 11:12 · shortages in a state under heavy 11:14 · sanctions grain production has produced 11:17 · Slimmer profit margins on occasion this 11:20 · has prompted violent clashes between 11:22 · Taliban militants and farmers and as 11:25 · with all forms of prohibition 11:27 · skyrocketing prices are are providing 11:29 · lucrative opportunities for Bootleggers 11:32 · gutsy enough to defy Taliban decrees 11:35 · thus by assisting the Taliban Teran 11:38 · could snuff out trafficking at its 11:40 · source this would help ease the strain 11:42 · on its own counternarcotics efforts 11:44 · which have wilted under the pressure of 11:46 · its porous 930 km Afghan border such 11:51 · programs would only become more relevant 11:53 · as climate change sets in opium is not 11:56 · only more lucrative than conventional 11:59 · agriculture but less water intensive and 12:01 · any letup in enforcement or Taliban 12:04 · influence at the hands of Isis K or 12:07 · others could see Poppy yields return to 12:09 · their pre-eradication levels within a 12:12 · single season but such Taliban Teran 12:16 · cooperation will not be possible without 12:18 · advances in minority rights in eastern 12:22 · Iran there is a significant amount of 12:24 · anti- Afghan sentiment mostly due to 12:27 · refugees border security issues and an 12:30 · opioid crisis largely seen as an Afghan 12:33 · problem meanwhile the Taliban attempts 12:36 · at establishing pashun cultural hegemony 12:38 · have fallen hard on its Persian speaking 12:41 · minorities this includes the suppression 12:43 · of Persian literature and language in 12:46 · favor of poshto mutual concessions on 12:49 · this front will thus be necessary 12:51 · finally the issue of water rights will 12:54 · have to be finalized in a properly 12:56 · ratified treaty whatever else their dis 12:58 · agreements both tan and the Taliban 13:01 · share a professed commitment to the 13:03 · Helmand water treaty though since 13:06 · nothing was ever ratified Afghanistan 13:08 · has the clear upper hand in negotiations 13:11 · recent tensions have not concerned the 13:13 · agreement's legitimacy so much as 13:16 · whether Afghanistan is obliged to feed 13:18 · Iran additional water in times of 13:21 · drought but while a blackl 13:23 · interpretation of the treaty leans 13:25 · towards Afghanistan the Taliban is an 13:28 · unre recognized government something 13:30 · Tran has been at pains to point out 13:34 · nonetheless the Taliban Remains The 13:36 · defao Sovereign Authority in Afghanistan 13:39 · regardless of legal technicalities thus 13:42 · in the long run Iran may be moved to 13:45 · recognize the Taliban possibly on the 13:48 · condition that it provides greater 13:50 · protections to its ethn religious kin 13:52 · within Afghanistan doing so would open 13:55 · up the dispute resolution procedures 13:57 · available on under the helmond river 13:59 · treaty this includes Article 4 and 14:03 · additional protocol 2 which provide 14:05 · detailed procedures for settling 14:07 · disagreements first through diplomatic 14:10 · channels then via third-party 14:12 · arbitration and then through an 14:14 · independent fact-f finding process to be 14:17 · conducted by a tribunal this may prove 14:21 · difficult though as it would need 14:23 · significant buyin from the Taliban it 14:25 · would also require a mediator that could 14:28 · command and the trust of both parties 14:30 · the most likely candidates would be 14:32 · Qatar which brokered the 2020 Doha 14:36 · agreement or China which recently 14:38 · brokered deals between Iran and Saudi 14:41 · Arabia whatever happens settling the 14:44 · dispute is in the mutual interest of 14:46 · both parties shared security issues 14:49 · necessitate it and beyond that neither 14:53 · side can afford new enemies the 14:55 · differences between them are significant 14:57 · in religious cultural and 14:59 · ethnolinguistic terms diplomacy is to do 15:03 · and say the most abhorent things in the 15:06 · nicest way but nowhere is it written 15:09 · that effective diplomacy requires 15:11 · complete consensus it merely requires 15:15 · Toleration I've been your host shiran 15:17 · from Caspian report all of our content 15:20 · is crowdfunded if you want to be part of 15:22 · that Network and gain access to some 15:24 · premium perks like Early Access PDF 15:27 · files Etc consider joining our platform 15:30 · on patreon or the YouTube membership 15:33 · program you'll find the links in the 15:35 · description box in any case thank you 15:38 · for your time and S
The best thing about a muzzie civil war is, everyone wins.
This is a good thing, no?
Why Iran and Afghanistan are headed to war
Oh good. It’s fun to watch other countries go to Afghanistan to die.
So I guess we’re on Afghanistan’s side?
At least we won’t have to send them any more weapons.
“It will always be Persia to me.” ~ J. Peterman
The Taliban couldn't take on the Iranians without all that left-behind gear.
Which side will Lindsey Graham choose to back, with billions of unaudited aid?
Well, I’d say whatever’s in Blackrock’s best interests.
I think that's the right play here. They can put the weapons we left behind for them after the Fall of Kabul to good use.
Lol, step away from the Risk board.
Ha.
Decisions, decisions. Which one do we send billions in aid? Hmm, how about both? This time I insist on having an actual plan, from the very beginning all the way to rebuilding two nations into failing Democracies.
Is Victoria Nuland there?
When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier.
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
Go, go, go like a soldier,
So-oldier ~of~ the Queen!-- Rudyard Kipling, The Young British Soldier, 1865
I am on the sidelines urging them to GOPHERIT!
Y’all whack each other and save us the trouble!
Unless Biden send some billions to both sides and a few hundred American military advisors.
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