Posted on 10/21/2016 12:19:18 PM PDT by trackman
True, Pearls. Agreed. By nature it is undoubtedly biased. Yet, the equal polling of Democrats and Republicans in each state should, in theory, help normalize the poll and come up with a nation-wide 50-50 split of D’s to R’s. It’s the amount by which Trump wins that is astounding to me.
Would you happen to have the cross-tabs for this poll?
Crossing one bridge at a time.
We are at the “wily as a serpent” stage now. We have already tried the “peaceful as a dove” stage.
Yeah, that would make a little difference! :)
1) I live in a reliably red state. There's no doubt where my electoral votes will go, so my opinion is not newsworthy.
2)I screen my calls and don't answer out-of-area calls. Even if a pollster tried to call, I wouldn't answer.
I really know nothing about the actual mechanics of polling, and am trying to justify the huge disparity in results between different polls. Can anyone explain why this poll is so radically different (other than outright lying by one polling org)?
Is this a "push" poll where the caller is bullying the respondent into their candidate? Obviously that would skew the result.
Does the caller identify which company is conducting the poll? People could hang up on a pollster based on perceived bias of the polling organization (i.e. Dems hang up when they learn it's a "FOX" poll). Results would not be accurate then.
Does the polling company screen respondents based on answers to "other" questions? (i.e. hot-button issues like school choice, gun control, abortion, etc.)
and yet O’Bloviator last night was bloviating on about how “nobody won the debate” and because Trump failed Hillary will continue her “6 to 10 point lead” thru election day.
Spit.
Here’s what I think: O’Reilly is jealous.
It’s been clear all along that because Trump and he attended baseball games together he deserved some special treatment and that he envied Trump having elevated himself far beyond where O’Reilly could ever go. He’s a thin-skinned p$ick anyway, and Trump’s success really bugs him.
There is a much better correlation between dead people and illegals who vote democratic.
They can even elect dead people. Ask John Ashcroft, who just threw that one because he didn't want to upset a widow.
Just between you and me, ALL these polls are Bull ship. They are all media polls. They lie. I predicted a landslide Trump win 10 months ago...
“I will ask my daughter who is a meteorology major if she can order up some terrible weather for the nation’s urban centers on November 8th.”
That’s a tall order for an undegreed meteorologist. But this is important.
The national RNC, yeah... around 1972, I think. (t does not bind state or local chapters, I think.)
A retired communist judge comes out of his belfry once a year or whatever to sign a continuation of the treacherous Republican capitulation to DNC voter fraud.
See? RINOs have been undermining conservatives for many decades. Nothing new.
Your second point illustrates the dirty little secret of modern polling. In a day when the number of landline phones are dwindling rapidly (and those of us with cell phones screen our calls) it is extremely difficult for any polling outfit to get a reliable sample—and that assumes their turnout model is correct.
From what I’ve read, virtually all of the media pollsters are assuming that turnout in 2016 won’t be that far off 2012. That is a dangerous assumption; if Hillary believes that black voters and millenials will turn out at the same rate they did for Obama, she is sadly mistaken. Meanwhile, enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts, while HRC drew a large crowd for only one event, an on-campus rally at Ohio State. Obviously, rally attendance doesn’t equal turnout, but if your base isn’t very excited about the candidate, how do you get them to the polls on 8 November?
Then again, the Dims have an impressive ability to manufacture votes among the dead and achieve North Korean-like pluralities in minority neighborhoods. The election may be razor close, but I’m having a hard time buying predictions of a Clinton landslide with polls that consistently use a D+6-D+12 sample as a starting point.
I can find no links that validate a single thing being claimed about this “poll” other than a supposed TV screen capture and dozens of copy-cat claims bouncing around in the conservative blogosphere.
Interesting. My sons live in Cook County, Illinois. Chicago suburbs, near Hillary’s hometown Park Ridge. They told me today that they have seen only 2 Hillary yard signs.
No Hillary bumper stickers.
Same is true of my area in Virginia where Obama and Bernie support were prevalent.
Funny that so few are proud to support Hillary.
On Twitter, the excuse given is that HRC didn’t want to waste money on yard signs and stickers. And that supporters are afraid of being attacked. Yeah, right.
The point about the diminishing landlines is very true.
NONE of the millenials in our congregation nor in my neighborhood have land lines.
And while I suspect there are stats out there, I’ve yet to see them. How they break out is anyone’s guess.
I went to his site. His polls are fun!
http://www.billoreilly.com/poll-center
93% of people polled believe in voter fraud.
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