1) I live in a reliably red state. There's no doubt where my electoral votes will go, so my opinion is not newsworthy.
2)I screen my calls and don't answer out-of-area calls. Even if a pollster tried to call, I wouldn't answer.
I really know nothing about the actual mechanics of polling, and am trying to justify the huge disparity in results between different polls. Can anyone explain why this poll is so radically different (other than outright lying by one polling org)?
Is this a "push" poll where the caller is bullying the respondent into their candidate? Obviously that would skew the result.
Does the caller identify which company is conducting the poll? People could hang up on a pollster based on perceived bias of the polling organization (i.e. Dems hang up when they learn it's a "FOX" poll). Results would not be accurate then.
Does the polling company screen respondents based on answers to "other" questions? (i.e. hot-button issues like school choice, gun control, abortion, etc.)
Your second point illustrates the dirty little secret of modern polling. In a day when the number of landline phones are dwindling rapidly (and those of us with cell phones screen our calls) it is extremely difficult for any polling outfit to get a reliable sample—and that assumes their turnout model is correct.
From what I’ve read, virtually all of the media pollsters are assuming that turnout in 2016 won’t be that far off 2012. That is a dangerous assumption; if Hillary believes that black voters and millenials will turn out at the same rate they did for Obama, she is sadly mistaken. Meanwhile, enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts, while HRC drew a large crowd for only one event, an on-campus rally at Ohio State. Obviously, rally attendance doesn’t equal turnout, but if your base isn’t very excited about the candidate, how do you get them to the polls on 8 November?
Then again, the Dims have an impressive ability to manufacture votes among the dead and achieve North Korean-like pluralities in minority neighborhoods. The election may be razor close, but I’m having a hard time buying predictions of a Clinton landslide with polls that consistently use a D+6-D+12 sample as a starting point.