Based on some of the pre IA polls for IA, I’d say something was off. Maybe the media, campaign hype or because they let ‘newcomers’ register right before voting, IIRC.
Perhaps polling for NH is more accurate. Perhaps NH actually has more stringent requirements for voting ‘residents’. Maybe the shakeout in IA will have an influence.
I’ll guess we’ll find out next Tuesday. Good luck to Trump and Cruz. Rubio can just go away.
Now, they're looking at other ways to measure public opinion, gage voter turnout, etc. And they haven't gotten that nailed down. Not by a long shot.
He cited recent KY governor's race, Israeli election, Brit election... several others where polling is off from results sometimes by 10 percent or more.
Essentially, the margins of error are far larger than what is published.
Gaffer wrote: “Based on some of the pre IA polls for IA, I’d say something was off. Maybe the media, campaign hype or because they let ‘newcomers’ register right before voting, IIRC.”
You have to give Cruz credit for his “ground game” for sure. I would suppose that would mean understanding the rules, having lots of local people involved, knowing how local politics plays, and turning that around to your advantage to maximize how many get out and pull the lever for you. I’m impressed actually. Then again, I was impressed with the community organizer’s ground game too.
I had heard a report for example that Trump had not lined up enough minivans to get his people out to vote. I’m pretty sure Ted Cruz didn’t haul many Trump voters to the caucuses, thus the ones that didn’t get there showed in the poll but not in the vote.
“Rubio can just go away.”...
Agreed. I hear there is an overload of used cars left to sell in Florida, perhaps he can scam the folks down there.
Do you know if the folks in NH can register at the polls and/or if it’s an open primary?