Popular vote: Obama seems to have a floor of 45%, and while a total of 47% would be deliciously ironic, I don't think he gets that much. Romney 53-45 (with 2% "other").
Electoral vote: This could be a complete rout, but I'll go with Romney 338-200, which happens if Romney takes NV, CO, IA, MI, PA, OH, WI, NH, and 1 EV in Maine. I think I'm on the low side, as we may see one or more additional "surprises".
House/Senate: Not going to predict any specific outcomes, but I think Obama will have negative coat-tails as much as Romney has positive ones, leading to a decisive GOP victory on the night, with a few pockets of 'rat holdouts and ticket-splitters.
My prediction would be a Romney win, 52%-47%; with 1% outside of Romney and Obama going to misc. candidates etc. Romney about 310 electoral votes.(270 needed to get elected) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ In the Senate race- The recent poll underdog , liberal Scott Brown and the ultra liberal Elizabeth Warren, end up in a recount in that election. Socialists always recount better than dumb Republicans so Warren will win it.
Romney by 4
Purely wishful thinking, but not laced with quite as much Romney kool-aid as most on here:
Romney 286, Bonzo 252. No prediction on popular vote since it’s irrelelvant anyway.
Of the swing states, Mitt gets:
Colorado
Florida
1 ev from Maine
Minnesota (sure...)
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
Bonzo gets:
Iowa
Michigan
New Hampshire
Nevada
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconin
I’ll go out on a limb with the other happy-pill addicts and say we pick up a net 4 in the Senate. But I do not include the 2 swing state Senate races from states I’m giving to Mitt (OH,VA): Mandel has just been way too slimed by Brown to pull this one out unless a miracle occurs, same with Allen (by Kaine) in VA.
We may pick up a few seats in the House despite bloodbaths in California and Illinois and failure to capitalize on redistricting in our big states (Texas, Florida, Ohio).
Perhaps there wasn’t much we could do to gain more seats in those states, but what was even worse was those gutless little RINO pukes in the FL legislature taking great pains to try to do away with the most conservative R’s (West, Adams) in the delegation, while shoring up the district of a highly-damaged R who is going down in flames (Rivera) and making the new seats Rat-leaning (Grayson, Frankel).
I think West pulls it out, but Adams is already gone thanks to losing the primary to an old-bull semi-conservative.
New Hempshire goes to the Libertarian party, tipping scale in Obama’s favor. Market certainty of a socialist future ironically shoots up the stock market. Bernanke accelerates Fed asset purchases and dollar pump priming. The Catholic church is forced to distribute contraceptives to children. Big bird advocates for a King and Queen of the United States, and Obama agrees. The Obamas change The United States to the to The Neighborhood of Make-Believe. Obama changes his name to King Friday and hands out doobies to the children. Michelle changes her name to Queen Saturday and advocates eating veggies after we all smoke our blunts. Biden changes his name to Mr Green Jeans and wears clothes made of money. Bert and Earnie finally get married and encourage the children of the Kingdom to have safe sex, even with the library police - a new division of the IRS.
Romney win 51% to 47% with over 300 electoral votes.
Republican control of the Senate by one vote. High probability that we will have another “Jumpin’ Jim Jeffers” moment in the next two years.
House remains in Republican control. Gain of between 3 to 6 seats.
News will be how many normally blue states went red. In the list of possible surprises: New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Maine, Connecticut, and New Hampshire.
There will be much talk about how the pollsters got it so wrong with much of the blame on Hurricane Sandy, even though the areas most affected still went with Obama.
In the next two years we will have an epidemic of Democrat politicians retiring.
The most important, not talked about outcome will be the number of state legislatures that went Republican.
New Hempshire goes to the Libertarian party, tipping scale in Obama’s favor. Market certainty of a socialist future ironically shoots up the stock market. Bernanke accelerates Fed asset purchases and dollar pump priming. The Catholic church is forced to distribute contraceptives to children. Big bird advocates for a King and Queen of the United States, and Obama agrees. The Obamas change The United States to the to The Neighborhood of Make-Believe. Obama changes his name to King Friday and hands out doobies to the children. Michelle changes her name to Queen Saturday and advocates eating veggies after we all smoke our blunts. Biden changes his name to Mr Green Jeans and wears clothes made of money. Bert and Earnie finally get married and encourage the children of the Kingdom to have safe sex, even with the library police - a new division of the IRS.
Romney 359 EV / “0” 179 EV. Too many liberal rags endorsing Romney now, it’s moving towards 1980 proportions
Obama wins a close one due to voter fraud making the difference.
Of the Swing states, Mitt gets FL, NC, IA, VA, OH, CO, Maine(1), PA, WI
with 312 Romney
to 226 Obama.
53/46 popular vote, 315-223 electroral.
Economy still crashes next year regardless.
My call: Romney by 3%, Romney takes PA.
Romney wins the popular vote 53% and EV in the range of 425-458.
I am somewhere between 98.45612457382% and 98.568953421% that the result will be:
Romney 51.5, Obama 47.5, other 1%.
I am going to say about 280 (Colorado will decide that Romney is our next President) and he wins popular vote 49-47 percent.
Romney is surging now in the last 2-3 days before the election.
This surge will not be reflected in most polls because they were done too early to pick it up. Those polls had a short shelf life ... they're already past their stale date.
It's true that Romney lost a couple of points last week due to two things:
- Hurricane Sandy swamping out political the news, and the positive-looking photo op for Obama
- Obama got his "incumbent's last week bump." This came from about 1/3 of the "undecideds" finally telling pollsters they had chosen Obama. The other 2/3 of the undecideds will go for Romney; but those votes won't show up until election day.
Additionally, as we all know, there are intangible factors in Romney's favor that are hard to quantify in polls (e.g. intensity, increased participation by Evangelicals and pockets of Reagan Democrats).
So my prediction for the popular vote: Romney 51.7, Obama 47.
I’m predicting - ROMNEY - 310
OBAMA - 228
Romney takes all the swing states except Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nevada. We pick up one stray electoral vote in Maine. Romney wins the popular vote 51.5%
Romney’s coattails carry McMahon over the line in Connecticut. It has a similar effect for Akin in Missouri, Mourdock in Indiana, and Allen in Virginia.Brown wins in Mass by a hair. Rehburg has a good chance of defeating Tester in Montana, Thompson wins in Wisconsin, we take the senate.
Lose two in the House, but West and Bachmann keep their seats.
I am also predicting mass suicide at MSNBC, and a slight chance of Paul Krugman shitting his pants. We never hear Nate Silver’s name again.