Posted on 11/05/2012 5:45:49 AM PST by kevkrom
Okay... election day is tomorrow, and it's time for all us to make final predictions on the record... you know, for bragging rights.
This is specifically for the Presidential race, but if you want to lock in overall and/or specific Senate and House races for "bonus points", by all means go ahead!
Romney 51.4%
Romney 296-242.
Dems hold senate with 51. Republicans lose two seats in the house.
North Carolina will tell us all the tale on election night.
Polls close at 7:30PM EST, and if they call it before 8:30PM, with Romney up +5 or better, despite the huge Get-Out-The-Fraud Dem efforts in NC, a National Landslide is in Progress....
Popular Vote - Romney Wins 52%Romney 47%Obama 1% Other. Electoral College - Romney wins Narrowly on election night with a couple states too close to call (his margin may expand after those are sorted out) 278 on election night, 290 when all is said and done. The big story will be that after all the money and time poured into Ohio, Romney wins another large state Penn, Mich, Wisc. That makes the results in Ohio largely irrelevant regardless of which way they go (Ohio will be too close to call on election night but nobody will care).
House - (+/-2) Republican win a couple seat or lose a couple seats. Either way Pelosi is quitely but firmly shown the door by the democrat caucus. House race is considered a devastating loss for democrats.
Senate - Because of Romney coatails Republican win a couple more seats than they appear to be winning today, end up with a slim 50/50 or 51/49 majority.
Romney 50.5
Obama 48.0
Other 1.5
Dangit, Perdogg... that is MY prediction exactly!
Except, I think
Romney will get 51%,
Obama will be 47.5%.
I also predict
+3 House seats for Republicans, and
50/50 in the Senate.
I WISH the news were better in the Senate... Could be, if Romney actually pulls a percent or two more... but, that's pretty hard to see right now.
Actually though, I have RR winning Nev, Wisc, Ohio and ME-1..... that also gets 296 for Romney.
I predict a Romney win at 300EV’s. Does anyone have any thoughts on Larry Sabato? He’s predicting an Obama win.
Romney 52% with 295 EV
Nobama 47% with 243 EV
Romney, but closer than we think (or would like).
R - 280s
O - 260s
Wish I was more confident but the up tick from Sandy, even though its really a disaster of Katrina proportions for Obama, has me concerned.
I’m with Perdogg, although I think O eeks out another 1/2 of a percent.
Romney 50.5
Obama 48.8
Other 1.0
As for EV? I’m thinking more around 288 for Romney.
Closer to the truth than I would like.
My prediction would be a Romney win, 52%-47%; with 1% outside of Romney and Obama going to misc. candidates etc. Romney about 310 electoral votes.(270 needed to get elected) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ In the Senate race- The recent poll underdog , liberal Scott Brown and the ultra liberal Elizabeth Warren, end up in a recount in that election. Socialists always recount better than dumb Republicans so Warren will win it.
“Obama is not a good lawyer and would not have a clue what to do.”
I don’t think that matters. Frankly, I don’t think he cares whether or not he wins. But I believe that his puppeteers care a lot, and won’t relinquish the power. Axelrod, Jarrett, Holder, Muslim Brotherhood... they’re the ones to look out for and they definitely have a clue what to do.
They’re already asking if R can pull off a “come-from-behind” win.
FU Hussein Heads!
“If Pennsylviania is called for Romney, we can all go to bed early.”
I won’t go to bed early - I will make a fresh bowl of popcorn and tune into ABCCBSNBCMSNBCCNN for some real entertainment...
Indianapolis Star:
Only 11.2 percent of registered voters in metropolitan Indianapolis have cast early ballots so far this year, as of Saturday. That is down from the 14.4 percent who did so in the presidential election in 2008.
Inner-City early voting is WAY down from 2008. Even in Chicagoland/Northwest Indiana.
I don’t want to extrapolate, but this could have HUGE impact across the country.
I think many here at FR will desire to comment and not having to wait an hour for it to be posted, takes all the impact away from your spirit.
A dozen election threads max, none lasting longer than two hours or when they reach a post amount, no multiple comments, if your comment won’t go through it won’t go through period, one chance, no second chance.
Oh and spelling mistakes should be allowed and never commented, consider it breaking wind at the operam everyone knows when it happens, why stop the opera to talk about it?
Romney by 4
Purely wishful thinking, but not laced with quite as much Romney kool-aid as most on here:
Romney 286, Bonzo 252. No prediction on popular vote since it’s irrelelvant anyway.
Of the swing states, Mitt gets:
Colorado
Florida
1 ev from Maine
Minnesota (sure...)
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
Bonzo gets:
Iowa
Michigan
New Hampshire
Nevada
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconin
I’ll go out on a limb with the other happy-pill addicts and say we pick up a net 4 in the Senate. But I do not include the 2 swing state Senate races from states I’m giving to Mitt (OH,VA): Mandel has just been way too slimed by Brown to pull this one out unless a miracle occurs, same with Allen (by Kaine) in VA.
We may pick up a few seats in the House despite bloodbaths in California and Illinois and failure to capitalize on redistricting in our big states (Texas, Florida, Ohio).
Perhaps there wasn’t much we could do to gain more seats in those states, but what was even worse was those gutless little RINO pukes in the FL legislature taking great pains to try to do away with the most conservative R’s (West, Adams) in the delegation, while shoring up the district of a highly-damaged R who is going down in flames (Rivera) and making the new seats Rat-leaning (Grayson, Frankel).
I think West pulls it out, but Adams is already gone thanks to losing the primary to an old-bull semi-conservative.
Jack Welch said exactly what I think, either a squeaker for Obama or a big win for Romney, maybe a big silent wave of people who womt declare for Romney.
I dont know but am so fearful, really fearful.
I think Big Media has already been instructed on which words NOT to use tomorrow night under any circumstances if the messiah loses.... “landslide”, “mandate”, “victory”, “optimism”.
I’m also thinking that a puny, petty “concession” speech has already been written FOR Hussein, but that he won’t be allowed to see it before he has to excrete it.
Can Big Media deliver the news tomorrow without calling a major proportion of Americans racist?
Chris Plante has just predicted Romney will win, in 2008 he predicted a Obama win.
I like your bellwether pics. :) I'm watching Defiance and Wood Counties, as I'm right in-between them, in Putnam. If Romney is above 60% in Defiance and above 52% in Wood, he is likely to win. I'm also watching Warren and Delaware, important "exurban" counties. If Romney wins Warren by 72% or better, and Delaware at 66% or better, he's going to have a big night.
That is my map exactly.
Still would be nice if he picked up PA and NV...and MI... and MN... and OR...
No! They'll call us racist, small minded, selfish and greedy. The new Peter Jennings will claim that the voters threw a temper tantrum. I don't care what they say because a Romney win will also be a repudiation of the whored up msm too!
New Hempshire goes to the Libertarian party, tipping scale in Obama’s favor. Market certainty of a socialist future ironically shoots up the stock market. Bernanke accelerates Fed asset purchases and dollar pump priming. The Catholic church is forced to distribute contraceptives to children. Big bird advocates for a King and Queen of the United States, and Obama agrees. The Obamas change The United States to the to The Neighborhood of Make-Believe. Obama changes his name to King Friday and hands out doobies to the children. Michelle changes her name to Queen Saturday and advocates eating veggies after we all smoke our blunts. Biden changes his name to Mr Green Jeans and wears clothes made of money. Bert and Earnie finally get married and encourage the children of the Kingdom to have safe sex, even with the library police - a new division of the IRS.
Romney win 51% to 47% with over 300 electoral votes.
Republican control of the Senate by one vote. High probability that we will have another “Jumpin’ Jim Jeffers” moment in the next two years.
House remains in Republican control. Gain of between 3 to 6 seats.
News will be how many normally blue states went red. In the list of possible surprises: New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Maine, Connecticut, and New Hampshire.
There will be much talk about how the pollsters got it so wrong with much of the blame on Hurricane Sandy, even though the areas most affected still went with Obama.
In the next two years we will have an epidemic of Democrat politicians retiring.
The most important, not talked about outcome will be the number of state legislatures that went Republican.
New Hempshire goes to the Libertarian party, tipping scale in Obama’s favor. Market certainty of a socialist future ironically shoots up the stock market. Bernanke accelerates Fed asset purchases and dollar pump priming. The Catholic church is forced to distribute contraceptives to children. Big bird advocates for a King and Queen of the United States, and Obama agrees. The Obamas change The United States to the to The Neighborhood of Make-Believe. Obama changes his name to King Friday and hands out doobies to the children. Michelle changes her name to Queen Saturday and advocates eating veggies after we all smoke our blunts. Biden changes his name to Mr Green Jeans and wears clothes made of money. Bert and Earnie finally get married and encourage the children of the Kingdom to have safe sex, even with the library police - a new division of the IRS.
Romney 359 EV / “0” 179 EV. Too many liberal rags endorsing Romney now, it’s moving towards 1980 proportions
Lots. None that I can post here. He's got his head up obama's arse and is not an expert! He's a propagandist.
The MSM will keep FL/VA/NC "too close to call" until at least 11:00 EST in order to depress turnout in WI, IA, CO, and NV. In fact, they will not declare a winner until sometime on Wednesday.
54% RR / 45% 0bummer. I’ve been predicting a full 55% / 45% since mid-August, but I should back down the RR number due to the 1% weirdo vote. I predict that an early call by the networks on PA for RR will suppress voter turnout on the Left Coast for 0bummmer, helping run up the RR margin.
About 330 Electoral Votes for RR.
RR win PA, OH, FL, NC, VA, CO, WI, NH
Obummer wins MI, MN.
I believe presidential elections hinge on one question which is devastating for 0bummer:
“Do I want four more years of this?”
The answer is a resounding “NO!” America sucks under 0bummer, and everyone knows it. I think the vote is going to be a complete blowout.
Republicans take the U.S. Senate with 51 votes. House stays reliably Republican, with maybe a pickup of 3.
Washington State hires a Republican Governor, and approves Gay Marriage (a first in the nation), at the same time!
I did not see 1 single campaign sign in the whole city. Not one. In Whitehall Twp, the burbs north of allenntown lots of Romney/Ryan signs.
Take this for what it's worth. The Morning Call, Allentowns newspaper is in the tank for Obama as one would expect but I don't see much support in the ranks.
Thanks for the tip, LS and Ravi!
I have it 331 EV’s for Romney, 207 for Obama.
House picks up three, senate four.
Obama wins a close one due to voter fraud making the difference.
Of the Swing states, Mitt gets FL, NC, IA, VA, OH, CO, Maine(1), PA, WI
with 312 Romney
to 226 Obama.
If people think about what they’re doing, the problems can be significantly reduced.
If you post and your post doesn’t show up right away, DO NOT keep hitting the “Post” button. That causes multiple posts.
If you post, always check the “I have already previewed...” box, and don’t worry about previewing.
If you haven’t already done so, reduce your posts-per-page setting to 20.
Resist the temptation to continually refresh the page you’re viewing to see new posts. Chill out and wait a bit, let other users have a chance.
Resist the temptation to post useless, information-free comments, or comments that essentially repeat what others have said.
53/46 popular vote, 315-223 electroral.
“I’m going to go with Barone’s prediction, down to the state and the EV.”
I’m going with Barone too. When I read Barone’s predictions state-by-state (for the swing states), I thought they made sense. Barone predicts Romney 315, Obama 223. Interestingly, Barone gave Pennsylvania to Romney, but with more reservation than for the other swing states. Fortunately, even without PA, Romney would still win with 295 electoral votes.
Economy still crashes next year regardless.
Also, resist the temptation to continually repost noise from Twitter. If someone is interested, they are free to go there on their own.
FR crashes by lunch time.
Yes exactly. Obama looks desperate. The crowds at rallies tell the tale too. There is absolute no Obama mania at all...like the last time. And even with that he didn’t beat McCain by very much.
My call: Romney by 3%, Romney takes PA.
Romney wins the popular vote 53% and EV in the range of 425-458.
I am somewhere between 98.45612457382% and 98.568953421% that the result will be:
Romney 51.5, Obama 47.5, other 1%.
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