All intercepted and destroyed.
Meanwhile the tense wait for the so called Iran Response.
I hope Iran attempts a direct attack on Israel so the IDF can unleash a direct hit on Iran's nuke and missile production facilities, long over due.
Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Thank you for the notification.
🙏
All intercepted and destroyed.
Meanwhile the tense wait for the so called Iran Response.
I hope Iran attempts a direct attack on Israel so the IDF can unleash a direct hit on Iran's nuke and missile production facilities, long over due.
Thanks, Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The eliminate fossil fuels arm of the Globalists / WEF crowd is hitting critical mass in kalifornia.
A federal court’s ruling Tuesday that California can set independently set zero-emissions standards portends a “catastrophic” supply chain crisis and lost jobs, the nation’s farmers and truckers are warning.
The overwhelming cost of complying with zero emissions standards, especially if they’re adopted by other states, will drive small fleets like his – which comprise 96% of the trucking industry – out of business.
Kalifornia is demanding 100% switching to an all electric trucking system as well as forcing railroads to retire diesel engines in exchange for all electric systems.
OBSERVATION - This will have an enormous impact on the nation’s food supply and really put the pinch on kalifornia residents. The money and technology just isn’t there. Goal - to kill the US economy and starve people in the US and abroad.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Hundreds of pro-Palestine protesters and other activists clashed with the New York Police Department in Herald Square, located in Midtown Manhattan. Objects were thrown and people being attacked. The police made multiple arrests as they regained control of the situation. Protesters were demanding a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza.
OBSERVATION - Weekend is young, with more protests scheduled at cities across the country.
Economy-
Biden Administration has increased the cost of oil and gas drilling on public lands, raising royalty rates for the first time in a century.
***
West Texas Intermediate futures rose to $86 a barrel on multiple media reports that Israel is preparing for an imminent attack by Iran. Brent crude oil futures could spike to $100 a barrel if Iran directly attacks Israel, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/12/crude-oil-prices-today.html
OBSERVATION - Prices may well go higher following the Iranian seizure of the cargo vessel “MSC ARIES” in the Straits of Hormuz overnight.
***
Since January 2021, electricity prices have soared 29.4% — 50% more than overall inflation — rising 13 times faster than the previous seven years, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Meanwhile, in those seven years before Biden took office, electricity prices rose just 5%.
And gasoline prices, while down from their 2022 peak, are still 52.1% higher today than when Biden took the White House, Fox Business reported.
OBSERVATION - This is the biden economy, choking the production of energy in a deliberate effort to kill our economy and usher in the global “great reset”.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
DoD apparently scrambling to get additional forces into position near Israel in an effort to blunt any attack by Iran. Specifics are sketchy. See Israel below.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
This is how the constitution dies - Speaker Johnson cast the tie-breaking vote to kill an amendment that would require FISA to secure a warrant to spy on American citizens.
There has been a little used procedure to force a second vote on the FISA legislation, probably as early as Monday. Gives time to hammer the republicans who voted to can our 4th Amendment rights into supporting the American people, and not the deep state. (Of course the congress critters exempted themselves from the legislation).
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden on another vacation in Delaware
Illegal Immigration –
Denver is axing its police and fire departments to come up with tens of millions of dollars to throw at the growing illegal population. This will not end well for the citizens of Denver who the mayor says must “share the sacrifice” to care for these interlopers.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia conducted a test launch of one of its nuclear capable ICBMs yesterday, visible over a large region due to its low angle transjectory.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
RUMINT –
Unconfirmed reports that Russia achieved a largest strategic strike in Ukraine in history, when it destroyed Ukraine’s largest underground gas storage in Bilche-Volitsko-Uher in the city of Stryjak near Ľvov. Russia utilized Kh-47 Kinzhal supersonic missiles and Kh-101 cruise missiles, to strike and detonate 17 billion cubic meters of stored natural gas!
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Army - “The situation on the Eastern Front has deteriorated significantly”
Russian Ministry of Defense claims Pervomaiske near Donetsk was captured by Russian troops
Bakhmut -
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports Russian troops have infiltrated Northern part of Bohdanivka village near Bakhmut, clashes ongoing, the village is under control of Ukrainian Armed Forces
Outlook —
Analysts are noting that despite some Russian tactical successes, advances are difficult, often leading to only minor gains due to lack of support and poorly prepared units. Overall, progress is attributed more to changes in firepower capabilities and Ukrainian weaknesses rather than improvements in combat effectiveness or organizational structure of the Russian forces.
The situation on the fronts grows more desperate each day.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israel remains on high alert for impending Iranian attack
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
A U.S. defense official told CNN that the Defense Department was moving additional assets to the Middle East region. According to the official, the move is to “bolster regional deterrence efforts and increase force protection for U.S. forces,”
Unconfirmed reports indicate that this response includes 2 Arleigh Burke-Class guided-missile destroyers as well as several other ships to positions off the coast of Israel and in the northern Red Sea.
The US will attempt to intercept any weapons launched at Israel if it’s feasible to do so, two US officials told CNN
***
RUMINT - Reports that a number of F-15Es and a NATO E-3A Sentry AWACS have been redeployed from RAF Lakenheath in Norfolk to the Middle East this afternoon
***
NSC’s John Kirby says there continues to be a “very credible,” “viable” and “imminent” threat from Iran to Israeli targets, noting President Biden is being briefed multiple times a day by his national security team. U.S. and Israeli counterparts are “taking it seriously”
***
CBS News reported on Friday, citing two US officials, that an Iranian attack against Israel is expected to occur as soon as Friday and may include 100 cruise missiles and dozens of ballistic missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israel Defense Force has confirmed that Hezbollah launched roughly 40-50 rockets at Northern Israel, with a majority being intercepted by Iron Dome and others impacting in open areas.
In an apparent response, The IDF says it struck a large Hezbollah compound in the Rihan area of southern Lebanon. The compound included several buildings and a military post, according to the IDF.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
RUMINT. Sources in Syria are reporting that Iranian-backed groups across the country have been ordered to a state of high aAlert and have begun to deploy to secure locations in anticipation for the Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Unconfirmed reports, but appear credible - Turkey has denied permission to the US, to use Turkish air space to attack Iran. Turkey joins Kuwait, Qatar, and other Middle East nations in telling the US they cannot use wither bases or air space for any Iran attack.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Massive psyops and counter intelligence operations at play by both Israel and Iran as the world waits to see just what and how Iran does to take revenge for the loss of key IRGC and Qods force officers from the Damascus strike.
Last night was particularly hectic for OSINT analysts on the interwebs as the Hezbollah rocket attack seemingly indicated the start of the now long awaited Iranian retaliatory strike ( reported this separately in previous posting). Then silence, except for abundant rumors of troop movements, warnings, preparation etc by Iran.
The purpose of all these actions is to keep Israel and its defense forces on the edge and slowly wear down their readiness. A force can only maintain a high state of readiness for so long before fatigue wears the alertness down. This is not Israel’s first rodeo on this front, but it may become more telling with time.
The practice also works against the US, given the wobbly support of late expressed towards Israel. If the reports of US naval and air force reinforcements are correct, these were short notice orders and heightened readiness of our already messed up military will degrade as well over time.
Iran’s more aggressive actions in the Straits of Hormuz are concerning and could spark a conflict very quickly. It is more directed as a warning to the US than Israel.
Bottom line - The consensus is that the Iranian attack is soon to be unleashed. It is likely that Iran may well continue the stops campaign for a number of days more before it does launch, in an effort to keep Israel and the US guessing as to the exact time of execution.
If Iran launches from its territory, Israel WILL strike back at Iran. Uncertain target set, but I would place Iran’s nuclear weapons program related targets as a high priority, followed by facilities that support Iran’s strategic missile / drone programs.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
Al-Arabiya reports that Iranian forces have captured the Portuguese vessel MSC ARIES in the Strait of Hormuz
Tehran says it will tow the ship “MSC ARIES” from the Strait of Hormuz to Iranian territorial waters
The vessel reportedly has ties to Israel via a company that manages it for Portugal. It has 40 Philippineo crew on board
***
Air France and Austria Airlines have both decided to follow the lead of Lufthansa in cancelling all flights to and from Tehran until further notice.
***
Netherlands to temporarily shut down its embassy in Iran
***
The French government has passed messages to Iran warning the government not to escalate. In the meantime, French citizens are advised to refrain from traveling to Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Palestinian territories in and diplomats’s families being pulled out of Tehran.
Since January 2021, electricity prices have soared 29.4% — 50% more than overall inflation — rising 13 times faster than the previous seven years...
If Israel and the US do a major attack after an attack on Israel Iran will sink the a few ships in the Straits off the UAE and grind the gears of the world to a near stop.
Israel - Iran update
Still a lot of speculation going on but several key events have taken place which suggests things may be going hot within the next 24-48 hours.
1. Biden cut his Delaware vacation short - for the first time - for military briefings.
2 Israel’i Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is making his way towards the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, according to Israeli media reports. (Not totally unique but timing)
3. Israel’s Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, is postponing his trip to Austria and Hungary, scheduled for tomorrow, “due to the security situation” according to reports.
4. Home Front Command’s defensive guidelines.
As part of the changes, it was decided to prohibit educational activities across Israel. In green areas, gatherings will be limited to 1,000 people.
These suggest the U.S. and Israel have received new intelligence that needs action.
Again speculation factor is still very high, but these actions are good indicators something is up
Developing.
Update 2 see also above.
NOTAM for Jordanian Airspace is now published, closure of Airspace from 2300 local, this is inline with Home Front Commands timeline for changes to restrictions for public in Israel.
Appears Israel and Jordan are working off the same schedule.
A FlyDubai (FDB1625) plane from Dubai to Tel Aviv this evening is returning to Dubai. No reason given.
3 x Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker on station over n Iraq
Developing.
Currently 1030 pm Tel Aviv time
That alone is alarming.
It goes to show the seriousness of the situation.
However, I think it's just for show as I don't think he's capable of making any kind of informed decisions about this much less understand all the repercussions of "his" decisions.
This is just political theater to make it look like he's doing something and in control.
But if his handlers want to give the appearance that he's at the helm, something is up.
According to Amir Tsarfati.....
https://t.me/s/beholdisraelchannel
“According to foreign reports, the attack from Iran to Israel has begun.
In the coming hours, many drones and missiles are expected to arrive in Israel’s airspace.
Apparently the attack was launched from the city of Kermanshah in Iran.”
and......
“According to international intelligence bodies, it was reported that dozens of explosive drones were on their way to Israel from Iranian territory.
The aircraft are supposed to arrive starting at 4:00AM in the morning in the parts of Israel.”
Here we go...
Pray for The Lord’s Justice.
His will will always be done.
So you think the countdown has started?
Update 3
Reports are 100 drones (not cruise missiles). Slow fliers and easily taken down.
Reports that Jordan has activated air defense systems to take any hostile down.
Worst case scenario. Iran timing arrival of drones with second wave of ballistic missiles. Both same arrival time, overwhelm Israeli Ada systems - my speculation. Even worse a massive rocket attack by hezbollah.
A pure, singular drone attack is a very lame response in its self.
Update 4 -
The Israeli Governments “Doomsday plane” has taken off and is the only plane leaving Israel.
Potentially carrying Netanyahu and cabinet. First time in Israel’s history.
Drones seen over Iraq.
Reports that some are suffering malfunctions.
Update 5
A senior U.S. official told ABC News they believe there will be anywhere from 400-500 drones and missiles launched at Israel from Iraq, Syria, southern Lebanon, and the Houthis, but the bulk will come from Iran itself.
Unconfirmed reports that drones have been launched by Houthi
Unconfirmed reports of at least 2 and possibly 3 waves launched from Iran
Unconfirmed reports US and UK fighters engaging drones over Iraq.
#FJB🚨 BREAKING 🚨
The Israeli Governments "Doomsday plane" has taken off and is the only plane leaving Israel.
Potentially carrying Netanyahu and cabinet.
This is very bad. pic.twitter.com/baG2ipKysr— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) April 13, 2024
Update 6.
Iran’s state news agency reporting the launch of ballistic missiles towards Israel. Included video. Released about 25 minutes ago.
Confusion over if Houthi launched drones or cruise missiles
Biden had announced then canceled an address to the nation
Developing.
I wonder if that’s just a decoy or distraction to throw them off the trail for where they really are.
I SERIOUSLY doubt they would be announcing their location to the whole world.
Update 7.
Evidence now that Iranian backed proxies in Iraq have launched SRBM. Initially thought to be from Iran.
Hezbollah has started a large rocket barrage towards n Israel and IAF is already responding with massive air strikes
Reports of rushes on gasoline stations across many Middle East countries.
Update 8
Where we are at.
Iran has launched hundreds of sahead drones towards Israel. Houthi launched probably a mix of drones and cruise missiles. Iranian proxy forces in Iraq launched short ranged ballistic missiles and hezbollah initiated large rocket barrages.
Israel has not announced any counter strikes against Iran yet, but has launched significant strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
How large this will escalate is to be seen
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