Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Welcome to 2024 - just remember that when you write out your checks . . . .

NOTE - I’m still working thru the year end review and look aheads to 2024 of various topic areas over the past year. Holy Cow - it has been an unbelievable year and the look ahead daunting.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Globalist agenda 2030 is one year closer. One of the key events to monitor is the May WHO meeting where they are attempting to take control of the globe via ‘emergency’ health items, like scamdemics, global warming and even gun control.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Starting this new year is a thought provoking analysis of just what the CW2 may look like, or at least what it will look like as it starts to turn hot. The following link is to a post by James Wesley Rawles, known best for his Survivalblog website and resource for prepping.

https://survivalblog.com/2023/12/31/im-dreading-second-civil-war/

***
Looking through new items, the pro-hamas demonstrations were locally loud, but I’ve found only a few acts of violence here in the US. Overseas, France in particular, the migrants set a lot of cars on fire across the country and in Germany , disrupted New Years celebrations.

***
With out holiday festivities to disrupt, what will the pro-hamas and their LGBT and Antifa hanger on-ers do to keep the pressures up and maintain turnout for protests? See biden below as they try to pivot to force biden on Israel. But that is a relatively limited platform for across the US.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group will leave the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where it was sent just after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, in the “coming days,” two U.S. officials tell ABC News

OBSERVATION - This is just asking for trouble. Yes, the Ford’s deployment has been extended - once. But this will leave only one carrier on station that could affect action in the Israel (Eisenhower and the Bataan ARG) - Iran developing theatre. There are no replacement flattops headed to the Med at this time. This move could encourage Hezbollah / Iran to strike Israel.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Once congress gets back to what they call “business”, new impeachment proceedings against Sec Mayorkas are expected to move forward. IMHO this is simply for show, the Senate will refuse to endorse the impeachment and Mayorkas will continue to keep hustling the illegals into the country.

Expect more desperate attempts by democrats to use the 14th amendment to keep Trump off ballots. The USSC is in a corner, needing to step up and restore the process to head off an explosion. If they punt, then the fuse is lit and things will get very ugly fast. The last time a presidential candidate was removed from ballots was when Lincoln ran for president - before the Civil War started.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden’s job rating up slightly from 37% last month to 39% now. Biden’s rating lowest of recent presidents at same point in their presidencies

***
A coalition of Muslim leaders in the U.S. is expanding its pressure campaign to dissuade voters from reelecting President Joe Biden due to his failure to call for a cease-fire in Gaza. The #AbandonBiden movement officially launched earlier this month in key swing states like Michigan where Muslim-Americans are a significant portion of the voting population. The coalition plans to eventually endorse a third-party candidate.

Illegal Immigration –

Following a year of record illegals crossing into the US, many forecast 2024 to be even worse as illegals (urged by their NGO funders) may be prompted to get into the country before the end of the year, fearing what may happen if Trump is elected.

China –

China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in December and weakened more than expected, clouding the outlook for the country’s economic recovery and raising the case for fresh stimulus measures in the new year.

The government has in recent months introduced a series of policies to shore up a feeble post-pandemic recovery, which is being held back by a severe property slump, local government debt risks and soft global demand. But the world’s second-largest economy is still struggling to gain traction.
The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 the previous month, an official factory survey showed on Sunday, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and weaker than a median forecast of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/china-factories-contraction/2023/12/31/id/1147720/

OBSERVATION - Doesn’t look like China is going to get this up to speed in the near and intermediate term. They spent all last year trying as well. If a global recession hit, China will be further behind on trying to get this going.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.

Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.

New Years started out literally with a bang as Russia launched one of its largest drone attacks on Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 87 of 90 Shahed drones overnight and missed a scattering of other missiles. Odesa hit hard as and apartment complex was targeted. Russian drones also hit Lviv and Dubliany of Lviv region as well as central Ukraine.

Ukraine artillery targeted Donbass Palace hotel in Donetsk where Russian leadership were celebrating new years.

The Ukrainian SBU released a video of one of their USVs. It shows a spectacular new development. Apparently, Ukrainian USVs are now capable to fire missiles. The video shows an attack against Russian Navy vessels at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol. Rockets appear to be similar to BM-21s. While this is novel, some observers wondering why they haven’t equipped them with torpedos - looking back to earlier kamikaze style attacks on Russia vessels at sea exposed to gunfire from those ships.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

It looks like both sides are continuing to expand their ‘deep’ war with drones and missiles. Russia has built up a stockpile of both and could maintain a high level of attacks for several weeks. However, Ukraine has continued to improve its air defenses making even the massive attacks of recent days relatively ineffective. So far Russia hasn’t really shown any evidence of a strategic plan for these missile barrages, seemingly just shotgunning them at cities. Ukraine having fewer assets are being more selective on their targets - an easier task as there is a plethora of Russian targets to choose from - with much softer air defenses. Even those areas that are alleged to have better defense, Ukraine has had a much higher success rate than Russia, the destruction of the Rocha class amphibious ship in Crimea a case in point.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Hamas launched a rocket barrage at new years. A dozen or so rockets targeted central Israel and were easily dealt with by Iron Dome.

Israel focusing on Khan Younis as Defense Minister Gallant approves reduction of forces in some areas of Gaza, orders fighting in Khan Younis to continue in full force until Israeli army destroys all terror sites in city, finds hostages, and kills Hamas chiefs.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued Hezbollah rocket/mortar attacks with IDF counter strikes. IAF also hitting higher value Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon as part of battlefield preparation for the eventual full blown fight with Hezbollah.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continued operations in various areas of the West Bank.

Israeli security forces stormed Shuafat camp, northeast of Jerusalem

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iraqi armed factions announce the bombing of the Israeli “Eilat” overlooking the Red Sea with drones.

***
RUMINT. The United States, United Kingdom, and an undisclosed European nation are on the brink of announcing a joint statement, disclosing their intensive preparations for a significant military operation against the Houthi group in Yemen. This operation entails the deployment of hundreds of missiles and airstrikes targeting pre-determined locations in Western Yemen and the Red Sea.

OBSERVATION - Maintaining RUMINT watch status on this. It is utter foolishness to telegraph one’s military attack plans and probable timing to an enemy, giving them abundant time to harden, disperse and ready counter measures to such a strike. Prime military dictum is to strike unannounced and in a surprise manner with great, overwhelming force. With the pullout of the Ford CSG from the Med, the heavy lifting falls on the Eisenhower, who also has responsibility for coverage of the Straits of Hormuz.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza. Hamas and affiliated forces still have a lot of hide outs, as evidenced by the New Years rocket barrage. But attrition by Israel is very evident. Hamas was able to launch about 80 rockets after the operational ‘pause’, while this latest burst was only a couple dozen rockets.

Pull back of the USS Ford CSG is disturbing and questionable. This takes a big stick away and could encourage Hezbollah to become even more aggressive even to the point of launching a preemptive offensive against Israel. With no replacement, this move is being suggested by some to be a political move to take the heat off biden for his leftist/moslem base for supporting Israel. Also, a ‘peace’ initiative towards Iran - so they feel less ‘threatened’ and will stand down on their own as well. That is not how it works with islamic radicals.

The US Navy has finally drawn blood. But the regime is still signaling hesitancy towards actually putting the Houthi on notice. The rumored ‘operation’ so far seems to be just a rumor. And for any military tactician to telegraph their punch is insane. Weakness will provoke the Houthi to become even more aggressive.

Iran –

The IRGC militias’ leadership has issued a direct order to evacuate all the military points and bases affiliated with the IRGC in Al-Bukamal city and its outskirts eastern Syria.

OBSERVATION - May or may not be linked to Israel’s recent successful targeting of high IRGC and Hezbollah leadership around Damascus and military convoys entering Syria.

Welcome to those who asked to be in the ping list. If you want on the ping, just let me know in the thread or PM.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

More than 200 U.S. active duty and retired service members are vowing to hold senior military leaders in the Biden administration — “who broke the law” — accountable for establishing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate.

“While implementing the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, military leaders broke the law, trampled on constitutional rights, denied informed consent, permitted unwilling medical experimentation and suppressed the free exercise of religion,” read a letter from active duty service members and veterans sent Monday to senior military leaders. A copy of the letter, titled a Declaration of Accountability, was posted on X by Brad Miller, who describes himself as a former Army officer.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/covid-vaccine-mandate-us-military-mark-milley/2024/01/01/id/1147837/

OBSERVATION - I noted over a year ago, the mandate violated the DoD’s own orders by illegally substituting (as adjudicated in federal court) an unauthorized version of the wuhan jab for the authorized, which was never used. Add to it blanket rejections - again against the law - plus the other actions noted in the letter, means this was a deliberate action to tear down the military. BTW, same debilitating sudden deaths and other medical effects that have hit the general population have hit the military.

This declaration annotates another line in the sand that the regime has crossed and I as a veteran say godspeed to its goals to make accountable those in authority who committed these criminal acts.

This also marks another foundational stone in the progression of a CW2 - citizens moving to hold govt / military leaders accountable for their actions. These veterans are now wearing a big target should the regimen go full monty and try a crack down of some sort - a scary possibility as the election gets closer and closer.

Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.

A deadly, fiery crash that occurred outside an entertainment venue in upstate New York early New Year’s Day is being investigated as possible terrorism, a law enforcement source briefed on the case told ABC News.

Two people were killed and five others injured after a Ford Expedition struck a Mitsubishi Outlander that was exiting a parking lot near the Kodak Center in Rochester, according to the city’s police chief, David Smith.

First responders found at least a dozen gasoline canisters in and around the Ford Expedition once the fire was extinguished, the police chief said.

“We are continuing to work with our federal partners, including the FBI, to learn exactly what led to this crash,” Smith said.

The driver of the Expedition is from Syracuse and drove his own vehicle to the Syracuse airport, where he rented the extra-large SUV, law enforcement officials confirmed to ABC News.

OBSERVATION - That is a lot of gasoline cans, making it very suspect as a potential terror attack. No released further information on the Expedition driver, though there is a slight inference about Gaza.
Also, some are seeing a connection to similar vehicle attacks over the past year.

Economy-

Gold prices closed out 2023 at record highs.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Bataan Amphib Group re-assembling following the departure of the Ford CSG.

POLITICAL FRONT –

With almost regal fanfare, the Epstine logs are coming out. The MSM has gone into overdrive to obfuscate them, citing old releases as being the new ones. As the fallout from the release hits - yes we are seeing actual names now - the effects could be wide as it seems there are many active politicians listed numerous times going to the island.

Illegal Immigration –

Final numbers still coming in but so far Customs and Border Patrol said the agency had 302,000 border encounters in December, the single highest month ever recorded, and 785,000 encounters since September.

China –

On Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to take Taiwan by force, if necessary, so that the island nation would be reunified with mainland China. The comments were made during a year-end address in which Xi reasserted the CCP’s longstanding position that Taiwan is a rebel region and must be reunited with the mainland, the New York Post reports.

https://humanevents.com/2023/12/31/ccp-leader-xi-jinping-vows-to-reunify-taiwan-with-mainland-china-in-year-end-address

OBSERVATION - A continuation of what Xi has been saying for several years now. Statements seen more critical now as an apparent attempt to intimidate and sway voters in the upcoming Taiwan national elections.

North/South Korea –

South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung stabbed in his neck at press conference in Busan. His current condition is not yet known. He was seen falling to the ground, bleeding from his neck. Health officials are saying his wounds are not life-threatening.
Police have arrested a 67-year-old man stabbed Lee, on the left side of his neck with an 18cm knife bought online, police said.

Lee lost to conservative Yoon Suk Yeol in a tight presidential race in 2022. Lee is widely expected to run for president again in 2027, and recent polls have indicated that he remains a strong contender. Lee is also currently on trial for alleged bribery stemming from a development project when he was mayor of Seongnam near Seoul.

OBSERVATION - This will definitely increase tensions in SK politics.

Japan –

Country recovering following a 7.8 quake, 48 dead and counting. Minor tsunami was triggered.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.

Russia launched another major missile assault. It is believed that Russia used up to at least 21 Russian strategic bombers [17 Tu-95Ms & 4 Tu-22m3].

Of the 99 missiles launched by Russia, 72 downed by Ukraine

10/10 Kh-42M2 Khinzal. This is the highest number of Kinzhal Missiles fired by Russia in one day
59/70 Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles
3/3 Kalibr
0/4 Kh-31P
0/12 SRBM (S-300/400, Iskander-M)

Kharkiv and Kyiv were both targeted heavily.

Russia also launched renewed attacks in the Adviivka region.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

Observers are going back to the missile counting game. This wasn’t too successful during last winter’s Russian blitz against the Ukraine power grid. However, the month’s long absence of Russian missile attacks (relying primarily on Shahed drones) heavily indicates they were working to build up their supply. Some estimate that Russia has enough missiles stored up for another 6 - 10 barrages like overnight.

Last night’s barrage was more focused - hitting Ukraine’s largest two cities.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israelis warned that the fight could go on thru most of 2024

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel announced Sunday that it would begin to draw down the number of reservist brigades in Gaza, allowing some reservists to temporarily return to civilian life.

IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Daniel Hagari said the IDF was giving the time off to refresh the forces, saying the “objectives of the war require prolonged fighting, and we are preparing accordingly.”

“We are wisely planning the management of the forces operating in the field, looking at the reserve system, the economy, refreshing forces, and continuing the combat training processes in the IDF,” Hagari said in a press briefing Sunday evening.

The reservists who have been given leave are expected to be called up later in the year, either in the south or along Israel’s increasingly active northern border.

https://allisrael.com/idf-releases-some-reservists-to-refresh-ahead-of-prolonged-fighting

OBSERVATION - Two quick take aways.
1. This is going to be a prolonged, many month conflict. Maintaining large force readiness can over time actually degrade that readiness.
2. It indicates that an attack into S Lebanon is not imminent and on Israel’s timetable it must be planning on (near) completion of Gaza operations first.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

IDF air and artillery strikes intensified overnight against targets in central and S Gaza. Daily, Israel finds tunnels, ammo caches, and in some cases booby trapped schools as they continue to clear sectors.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Criticism in Lebanon of the Hezbollah is increasing, as is the demand that it stop firing at Israel due to fear that the country’s citizens will pay the price.

The chairman of the Christian Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea, claimed that “Hezbollah is doing manipulations at the expense of the fate of the Lebanese - claiming that it is helping Gaza. It is not helping Gaza, but harming it.”

Geagea is one of the politicians considered to be the leaders of the fight against Hezbollah and represents about a fifth of the Lebanese population.

Maronite patriarch Bechara al-Rai joined Geagea and said, “We are opposed to the war entering southern Lebanon, the citizens of Lebanon must be protected. The war has brought us to the lowest of the lows. We demand the removal of all the missile launchers between the houses to prevent a destructive response by Israel. Everyone should respect [UN Security Council] Resolution 1701.”

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/382860

OBSERVATION - Hezbollah has not created very many friends in Lebanon. Its heavy handedness in local and national politics has turned more against it than for it. It is not surprising that Lebanese Christian groups oppose Hezbollah. Several years ago, locals in S Lebanon openly opposed Hezbollah establishing military bases and rocket firing positions in/near their towns - resulting in a standoff. This resistance and general hatred of Hezbollah has likely been well exploited by Mossad to enhance the database for targeting key locations in the pending war with Hezbollah.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

At least five rockets fired from Syria at the Golan Heights, The rockets landed in open areas south of the Golan. The Israeli army confirmed it carried out strikes against sites belonging to the Syrian Army overnight, in response to the rocket fire on northern Israel

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continued operations in various areas of the West Bank.

Israel Defense Forces has said that its operations in the West Bank are pre-emptive and aimed at dealing with security threats. It says it has carried out a wide campaign against Hamas and other armed factions in the territory over the past three months.

It says that more than 2,550 people have been arrested, approximately 1,300 of whom are associated with Hamas.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iran’s Alborz warship has entered the Red Sea, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday, at a time of soaring tensions on the key shipping route amid the Israel-Hamas war and attacks on vessels by forces allied to Tehran.

Tasnim did not give details of the Alborz’s mission but said Iranian warships had been operating in open waters to secure shipping routes, combat piracy and carry out other tasks since 2009.

The Alvand class destroyer had been a part of the Iranian navy’s 34th fleet, alongside the Bushehr support vessel, and patrolled the Gulf of Aden, the north of the Indian Ocean and the Bab Al-Mandab Strait as far back as 2015, according to Iran’s Press TV.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Some analysts are looking at the possibility that Houthi’s will now directly attack US/coalition vessels now that the US has drawn blood.

The arrival of the Iranian destroyer has brought both cackles of laughter (its an old vessel) as well as concern. IMHO it is there mostly to enhance Iranian intelligence efforts in addition to assist Houthi drones/missiles actual final approach targeting. There is a threat as it is a warship, but it would be a suicide mission to attack any of the US warships - but not out of the realm of possibility either though low IMHO.

Still hanging in the calculations are just how motivated will Iran and Hezbollah become now that the Ford CSG is transiting out of the region. The Bataan group has some capability but not at the fire power level of the Ford.

Iran –

Nicolas de Rivière, the French ambassador to the United Nations, recently told Iran International that he is “extremely concerned” about Iran’s jump in uranium enrichment.

His comments follow a joint statement by the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom slamming Iran for skyrocketing its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, near the level used for nuclear weapons.

The condemnation was a response to an International Atomic Energy Agency report detailing the findings, which Iran dismissed as “nothing new.”

OBSERVATION - 2024 may be the year Iran officially develops the bomb.

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