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Welcome to 2024 - just remember that when you write out your checks . . . .

NOTE - I’m still working thru the year end review and look aheads to 2024 of various topic areas over the past year. Holy Cow - it has been an unbelievable year and the look ahead daunting.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Globalist agenda 2030 is one year closer. One of the key events to monitor is the May WHO meeting where they are attempting to take control of the globe via ‘emergency’ health items, like scamdemics, global warming and even gun control.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Starting this new year is a thought provoking analysis of just what the CW2 may look like, or at least what it will look like as it starts to turn hot. The following link is to a post by James Wesley Rawles, known best for his Survivalblog website and resource for prepping.

https://survivalblog.com/2023/12/31/im-dreading-second-civil-war/

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Looking through new items, the pro-hamas demonstrations were locally loud, but I’ve found only a few acts of violence here in the US. Overseas, France in particular, the migrants set a lot of cars on fire across the country and in Germany , disrupted New Years celebrations.

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With out holiday festivities to disrupt, what will the pro-hamas and their LGBT and Antifa hanger on-ers do to keep the pressures up and maintain turnout for protests? See biden below as they try to pivot to force biden on Israel. But that is a relatively limited platform for across the US.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group will leave the eastern Mediterranean Sea, where it was sent just after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, in the “coming days,” two U.S. officials tell ABC News

OBSERVATION - This is just asking for trouble. Yes, the Ford’s deployment has been extended - once. But this will leave only one carrier on station that could affect action in the Israel (Eisenhower and the Bataan ARG) - Iran developing theatre. There are no replacement flattops headed to the Med at this time. This move could encourage Hezbollah / Iran to strike Israel.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Once congress gets back to what they call “business”, new impeachment proceedings against Sec Mayorkas are expected to move forward. IMHO this is simply for show, the Senate will refuse to endorse the impeachment and Mayorkas will continue to keep hustling the illegals into the country.

Expect more desperate attempts by democrats to use the 14th amendment to keep Trump off ballots. The USSC is in a corner, needing to step up and restore the process to head off an explosion. If they punt, then the fuse is lit and things will get very ugly fast. The last time a presidential candidate was removed from ballots was when Lincoln ran for president - before the Civil War started.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden’s job rating up slightly from 37% last month to 39% now. Biden’s rating lowest of recent presidents at same point in their presidencies

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A coalition of Muslim leaders in the U.S. is expanding its pressure campaign to dissuade voters from reelecting President Joe Biden due to his failure to call for a cease-fire in Gaza. The #AbandonBiden movement officially launched earlier this month in key swing states like Michigan where Muslim-Americans are a significant portion of the voting population. The coalition plans to eventually endorse a third-party candidate.

Illegal Immigration –

Following a year of record illegals crossing into the US, many forecast 2024 to be even worse as illegals (urged by their NGO funders) may be prompted to get into the country before the end of the year, fearing what may happen if Trump is elected.

China –

China’s manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in December and weakened more than expected, clouding the outlook for the country’s economic recovery and raising the case for fresh stimulus measures in the new year.

The government has in recent months introduced a series of policies to shore up a feeble post-pandemic recovery, which is being held back by a severe property slump, local government debt risks and soft global demand. But the world’s second-largest economy is still struggling to gain traction.
The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in December from 49.4 the previous month, an official factory survey showed on Sunday, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and weaker than a median forecast of 49.5 in a Reuters poll.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/china-factories-contraction/2023/12/31/id/1147720/

OBSERVATION - Doesn’t look like China is going to get this up to speed in the near and intermediate term. They spent all last year trying as well. If a global recession hit, China will be further behind on trying to get this going.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024

With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.

Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelyhood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.

While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.

Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.

New Years started out literally with a bang as Russia launched one of its largest drone attacks on Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 87 of 90 Shahed drones overnight and missed a scattering of other missiles. Odesa hit hard as and apartment complex was targeted. Russian drones also hit Lviv and Dubliany of Lviv region as well as central Ukraine.

Ukraine artillery targeted Donbass Palace hotel in Donetsk where Russian leadership were celebrating new years.

The Ukrainian SBU released a video of one of their USVs. It shows a spectacular new development. Apparently, Ukrainian USVs are now capable to fire missiles. The video shows an attack against Russian Navy vessels at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol. Rockets appear to be similar to BM-21s. While this is novel, some observers wondering why they haven’t equipped them with torpedos - looking back to earlier kamikaze style attacks on Russia vessels at sea exposed to gunfire from those ships.

Outlook —

Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.

It looks like both sides are continuing to expand their ‘deep’ war with drones and missiles. Russia has built up a stockpile of both and could maintain a high level of attacks for several weeks. However, Ukraine has continued to improve its air defenses making even the massive attacks of recent days relatively ineffective. So far Russia hasn’t really shown any evidence of a strategic plan for these missile barrages, seemingly just shotgunning them at cities. Ukraine having fewer assets are being more selective on their targets - an easier task as there is a plethora of Russian targets to choose from - with much softer air defenses. Even those areas that are alleged to have better defense, Ukraine has had a much higher success rate than Russia, the destruction of the Rocha class amphibious ship in Crimea a case in point.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Hamas launched a rocket barrage at new years. A dozen or so rockets targeted central Israel and were easily dealt with by Iron Dome.

Israel focusing on Khan Younis as Defense Minister Gallant approves reduction of forces in some areas of Gaza, orders fighting in Khan Younis to continue in full force until Israeli army destroys all terror sites in city, finds hostages, and kills Hamas chiefs.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Continued Hezbollah rocket/mortar attacks with IDF counter strikes. IAF also hitting higher value Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon as part of battlefield preparation for the eventual full blown fight with Hezbollah.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continued operations in various areas of the West Bank.

Israeli security forces stormed Shuafat camp, northeast of Jerusalem

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iraqi armed factions announce the bombing of the Israeli “Eilat” overlooking the Red Sea with drones.

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RUMINT. The United States, United Kingdom, and an undisclosed European nation are on the brink of announcing a joint statement, disclosing their intensive preparations for a significant military operation against the Houthi group in Yemen. This operation entails the deployment of hundreds of missiles and airstrikes targeting pre-determined locations in Western Yemen and the Red Sea.

OBSERVATION - Maintaining RUMINT watch status on this. It is utter foolishness to telegraph one’s military attack plans and probable timing to an enemy, giving them abundant time to harden, disperse and ready counter measures to such a strike. Prime military dictum is to strike unannounced and in a surprise manner with great, overwhelming force. With the pullout of the Ford CSG from the Med, the heavy lifting falls on the Eisenhower, who also has responsibility for coverage of the Straits of Hormuz.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. They have most of N Gaza cleared and are moving efforts to central and S Gaza. Hamas and affiliated forces still have a lot of hide outs, as evidenced by the New Years rocket barrage. But attrition by Israel is very evident. Hamas was able to launch about 80 rockets after the operational ‘pause’, while this latest burst was only a couple dozen rockets.

Pull back of the USS Ford CSG is disturbing and questionable. This takes a big stick away and could encourage Hezbollah to become even more aggressive even to the point of launching a preemptive offensive against Israel. With no replacement, this move is being suggested by some to be a political move to take the heat off biden for his leftist/moslem base for supporting Israel. Also, a ‘peace’ initiative towards Iran - so they feel less ‘threatened’ and will stand down on their own as well. That is not how it works with islamic radicals.

The US Navy has finally drawn blood. But the regime is still signaling hesitancy towards actually putting the Houthi on notice. The rumored ‘operation’ so far seems to be just a rumor. And for any military tactician to telegraph their punch is insane. Weakness will provoke the Houthi to become even more aggressive.

Iran –

The IRGC militias’ leadership has issued a direct order to evacuate all the military points and bases affiliated with the IRGC in Al-Bukamal city and its outskirts eastern Syria.

OBSERVATION - May or may not be linked to Israel’s recent successful targeting of high IRGC and Hezbollah leadership around Damascus and military convoys entering Syria.