Posted on 06/27/2016 9:15:56 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
Embedded in a lengthy article appearing in Politico Magazine that clearly laid out the deep trouble Hillary Clinton is in as she tries to win over voters in Pennsylvania, was a warning that it is Donald Trump who is in trouble in the Keystone State.
Not surprisingly “these warning words of wisdom” came from the director for the Center of Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, who said, “There just aren’t enough rural voters to put him over the top. In this state, a Republican has got to appeal to moderate Republicans and Republican voters in the southeast part of the state, who are mostly educated and mostly affluent. And I don’t know that we’re seeing that sort of appeal from Trump.” Would we expect any other sort of analysis from a college faculty member?
He pointed out Barack Obama won Pennsylvania while carrying just 12 of the State’s 67 counties implying Trump couldn’t do better than the hapless Mitt Romney. Had he paid attention to the survey done in Luzerne County Pennsylvania showing that Trump is leading by 17 points he might have rethought his statement. But of course that wouldn’t fit his preconceived narrative of protecting the Democrat.
In the last three presidential elections, Luzerne has tracked very closely to the overall statewide vote. Luzerne’s vote was a virtual mirror of the state as a whole. The average differential between Luzerne’s vote and the statewide numbers over this period has been approximately one percentage point. As Luzerne votes, so goes Pennsylvania.
More than this, a dispassionate review of the numbers shows more math problems...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
That’s “wether” or “wedder” as in sheep; not “weather”. The “bell wether” is the lead sheep that wears the bell. Manage it and the others follow.
Purely anecdotal information from the philly ‘burbs:
Cruz, Bernie, and Clinton signs were everywhere during the primary. I did not see a single Trump sign.
Regardless, he carried my district handily.
I suspect people have changed their public behavior due to political correctness, but in the privacy of the voting booth they will back our guy.
He carried the republican primary in your district. Not the same thing.
The few that I did see disappeared soon after being deployed. I can't say whether it was Cruz people or Rats who were getting them. Either is possible.
Political correctness will also cause folks to lie to pollsters, particularly claiming they are undecided when in fact they will vote for Trump.
If Hillary gets to 50% then I would worry, but as long as the undecideds remain a high number Trump is fine.
We hold our breath every four years for pennsyvania and fail every time. The state has a ton of Puerto Ricans and illegals that have arrived in the state the last twenty years.
I’ve never seen a Trump sign (I’m in Kansas). Election season hasn’t really ramped up here yet. Yes, we had a primary...and I recall hearing a few Bernie ads and Cruz ads on the radio. To my knowledge, nobody spent money on TV ads. A guy in line to vote had a Hillary!...(for prison) shirt, which was nice.
And now we sit and wait, while the swing states get bombarded.
I’ve seen a couple of Hillary bumper stickers, but that’s it.
Trump won every county in Pennsylvania in the primary. His Real Clear Politics poll average was 48.3, but he won the primary with 58.1 percent of the vote. He won every demographic. If you look at the scale of many of Trump’s victories, you will notice that he won numerous states by winning every single county, and I’m not talking about the states where he ran as the only active candidate. So, there is definitely something going on, either it’s a grassroots rebellion or something more organized.
You will not see a lot of Trump signs or bumper stickers because that is just begging for theft, vandalizing, and outright destruction from our super tolerant brethren.
The territory of Wyoming (now the state of Wyoming) was named after the Wyoming massacre. The congressman who first proposed the name was a Pennsylvania native. There were several other names proposed but that one won out.
Thanks for adding that factoid. FWIW, I was born in the Great State of Wyoming, which is arguably the best run State in the Union.
Philadelphia will give her Pennsylvania.
Nawwww...she’ll get the same Philly precincts that voted 110% for Zerohissef and no votes for Mittens.
Like Zerohissef she don’t need to win the state just key precincts within the states...like he did in ohio...
We need poll watchers. Big time.
One of the other names proposed was Lincoln, but that was rejected in part because till then no state had been named for a President (and they expected that the territorial name would be retained when it became a state). Lincoln was also proposed at one point as a name for what became North Dakota.
I was just in Philly over the weekend. What an absolute sh!thole.
A lot of those Puerto Ricans are actually Dominicans. They pretend to be Ricans so as not to be deported. They carry fake PR documents.
This is why the territory of Puerto Rico has nullified all PR birth certificates going back 100 years. If you were born in Puerto Rico prior to 2010, then you MUST re-register for a new birth certificate.
http://portal.ct.gov/Puerto_Ricos_New_Birth_Certificate_Law/
Allentown also has a very large Syrian and Lebanese population. Many of them (40%-45%) actually vote Republican.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.