Something Smells Like Ten Day Old Tuna in the Sun... (Conflicting polls)

My own workup | 12/13/2015 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

Review this: LINK  12/07/2015

Then reveiw this: (below)  Six days later...  (the media wants you to think Trump fell 12 points and Cruz rose 11 points in six days)

Who are those three big supporters of Cruz in Iowa?  Aren't they the RNC approved power brokers for the state?

                                                                                                                            data, then comments below

the Numbers			12/13/2015
Among likely Republican caucus goers
					Carson	Cruz	Rubio	Trump	Not Sure
Would be best at managing the economy					7	24	10	50	8
Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem					5	22	15	50	8
Knows the most about how to get things done					6	22	13	49	10
Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit					6	27	10	48	10
Can best combat Islamic terrorism					5	32	13	35	16
Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin					10	31	13	34	13
Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton					11	26	20	30	14
Would make the best commander in chief					12	34	18	25	11
Has the most appropriate life experience to be president					10	34	19	24	13
Has the right values to lead the nation					22	34	18	16	10
Would do the most to make all abortion illegal					23	32	7	6	32
Would work most effectively with Congress					18	31	29	12	10
Cares the most about people like you					24	28	19	17	12
Has the best temperament to be president					23	24	25	11	7
					182	401	229	407	174
All other things being equal, which of the following
is a more attractive candidate for president at this time:
39	A government outsider who has handled
	complex issues and managed teams
30	A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national
	security and international relations and diplomatic issues
19	A governor, who has worked with a legislature and
	who has been responsible for balancing a budget
12	Not sure
Which one of the following Republicans would be
your first choice for president?
And who would your second choice be?
If Uncommitted or not sure in first choice question,
code second choice
as no first choice and do not ask.
	FIRST	SECOND	COMBINED
Cruz, Ted	31	20	51
Trump Donald	21	14	35
Carson, Ben	13	14	27
Rubio, Marco	10	14	24
Bush, Jeb	6	5	11
Christie, Chris	3	3	6
Huckabee, Mike	3	5	8
Paul, Rand	3	3	6
Kasich, John	2	2	4
Fiorina, Carley	1	4	5
Santorum, Rick	1	2	3
Gilmore, Jim	-	-	-
Graham, Linda	-	-	-
Pataki, George	-	-	-
Not Sure	4	4
Uncomitted	3	3
No First Choice		7

Among likely Republican caucus goers
(from above)

Something DOES NOT add up when you start thinking about this section, and what it reveals about the Iowa caucus likely voters.

Let's look at the issues Trump does best on:

Note that of the real meat and potatoes issues in that section, Trump scores 50, 50, 49, & 48 points.  Cruz's top score on any subject, 34 points.
Of the first five items, Trump's numbers are higher than Ted's highest category.  Look at the issues those cover.  Immigration, the National Debt,
the Economy, actually getting things done, these are the issues Trump swamps Cruz on.  Most polls reveal three of these to be the biggest concerns
to U. S. Citizens at the current time, and the fourth issue is crucial, if we actually want to see those first three addressed and corrected.  That's why
I refer to these as the meat and potatoes issues.

Let's look at the issues Cruz does best on:

Has the appropriate life experience.  Can we get real for a minute here?  The presidency is a CEO like position.  The president delegates authority
through his department heads and project coordinators.  It's a CEO's position.  Ted Cruz has very little management experience, and no top level
CEO experience.  Trump has over 40 years of multilayer management oversight.  He has had to exercise his judgement at the city, county, state,
federal, and international level.  It has been his money on the line, and he has been responsible for the financial stability of 22,500 homes, his employees
and their families live in.  Cruz's contribution to this type of situation is zilch.  He hasn't hired one person on his dime in his lifetime.  Life experience?
That's a sad commentary on judgement folks.

Has the right values to lead the nation.  This would be a lot more impressive, if it weren't for one thing.  Who was the candidate selected as the most
capable of getting things done?  Was it Cruz?  No.  So if you want to get things done, do you pick the guy with values that won't get anything done?
What about Immigration, the National Debt, the Economy?  Don't those things need fixes to get implemented?  Who did the same people pick to
be the guy most likely to do it?  It wasn't Cruz.

Would do the most to make all abortion illegal.  This may be true.  I insert the word may because a president does not do things all by himself.  He
has work with Congress, and our Congress has not impressed anyone with their propensity to pass Conservative ANYTHING.  This Republican
Congress took no action whatsoever to reign in Planned Parenthood.  What faith do we have that they will change?  I think the only way they
change is if a powerful CEO type comes in and literally shames them into doing it.  If not that, then going to the public and asking them to please
call up their leaders and tell them, do it or else.  I do not see Cruz as capable of doing this, and the public agreed Trump was more likely to get
things done.  However there is a catagory that touches on dealing with Congress, and it reveals the public thinks Ted will do better dealing with
Congres than Trump would.  That's kind of a two edege sword, and I'll explain why I say that.  On the one hnd Ted has a connection to Capital
Hill, so he might have a better chance of getting people to go his way.  On the other hand, we know what Capital Hill is like these days, and if the
public thinks Cruz is more likely to be able to deal with those on Capital Hill, what is that saying?  They think he could deal with Leftists better
than Trump can?  Is that really a compliment, or is it an area of concern.  I'm not convinced either man will get Capital Hill to outright ban
abortion or even take substantive actions against agencies like Planned Parenthood.  It's a shame, but we saw what happened when Hitlerian
debachery was revealed earlier this year.  NOTHING.  If that didn't cause action, what would?  I honestly don't know.

Would work most effectively with Congress.  Here's that issue I just touched on above.  Is it a plus or a negative to be seen as a person that can
get along with the political players in Congress?  We know what the Democrats have been like for decades, and now the Republicans are essentially
a carbon copy.  They don't stand up to Obama on anything.  Is harmoney with Congress something we should see as a positive or a negative?

Has the best temperament to be president.  Okay, finally the one I know you were all waiting for.  LOL  This is the Goldwater question.  "You folks
know what he's like, do you really want his finger on the trigger?'  Trump has pretty much addressed this for what it is all along.  "They want me to be
nice.  It's time to quit being nice and get some things done.  That's how I see this, but there's more.  What kind of a question is this?  Is it a Conservative
question or a Leftist question?  "Tell me what your inner feelings are."  How do you feel about Trump or Cruz?  It's a silly question meant to move
public opinion.  In this poll it was quite successful.  Despite seeing Trump as the best guy to actually get the most important things done, these likely
caucus goes picked feelings over intellectual truth.  Trump would be better concerning my top ticket items, but I like Cruz.  I have to pick Cruz.  Duh.

Has the best temperament to be president.  Ditto the above.  Just silly and as Leftist as it gets.

Would make the best commander in chief.  If I were the Cruz folks looking at the internals on all this, I wouldn't be as celebratory as his rank and
file supporters seem to be.  Despite the (reportedly) likely Caucus goers seeing Trump as the best on the meat and potato issues and thinking he
would be the most likely to get them addressed and fixed, these folks voted their feelings instead.  Coupled with the CNN poll for six days earlier
and you have a bit of a problem on your hands.  Did Trump fall 12 points and Cruz rocket up 11 points in six days?  No.  They know it and we
know it.  This wasn't about who would make the best Commander in Chief.  It was about a push poll that got exactly the results it's operatives wanted.

Let's move to the next secion, about:


What type of person is the most attractive Candidate?
(from above)

What do we see here in the way of preferences?  What we decidedly see is that the profile of Trump came in ahead of the profile of Cruz by nearly
33% of Cruz's support.  Trump got 39% and Cruz got 30%.

At this point, it is clear that the likely Caucus voters were impressed with Trump's ability to address the most important issues, was more likely to get
them fixed, and posess the skills they think the next president needs.

And then the inexplicable selection:


Who would be your choice for president?
(from above)

Ted Cruz receives the 31% ranking for first choice and 20% as second choice.  (51% combined)

Donald Trump receives 21% ranking for first choice and 14% as second choice.  (35% combined)

The numbers revealed for this polling data conflict seriously with the presidential selection.  I'm sure Cruz's team will take that any way they can get it, and
I don't blame them.  Where this gets spotty, is if there were games played here.  If there were, and these numbers make that more than likely, what
happens next?


Then there was that troubling poll released just six days prior.  How did that "accurate" poll come out with those numbers concerning likely Caucas
goers, and this accurate polls likely goers.  Which accurate was really accurate?


The Cruz team can celebrate all they like, but somewhere out of sight of the public, there are some very troubled people right about now.

They are not on the Trump team.

D1  

[2ndDivisionVet]

So that's why both their US senators, their legislature, governor and many congressmen are Republicans?

[RitaOK]

Thanks for your magnificent work.

A few points I noticed:

This is the first poll out where Politico felt compelled to just must write about the positive genius of the pollster, Selzer, and her spot on polling, but then offers only two examples; Santorum was one. (For all the good it did anyone.)

The Tuna wrap Register has a good record, but whom has it ever despised more than TRUMP who has blown them up. Jane posted an Iowa Twitter fire that basically fed the Register to the fishes for being hacks and big Hillary supporters.

The Register may have registered a “trend” alright, 2 points over DJT, but includes over 60% of respondents are open to someone else.

Iowa volatility is also said to be legendary. May be Cruz cracks Iowa, with the psychological tech he is reportedly employing to push the outcome, but TRUMP has led well and consistently and over a very long period of time. In Iowa.

(I think the cows come home, if they ever even really viewed a green pasture next door.)

Bottom line is the Left is delighted on every Sunday show!
They sure as horns don’t want to run against TRUMP and that’s a fact. They have shined Cruz up relentlessly for being “smart”. Yikes! The Left.

LOL! It’s a cascade of compliments showered on Cruz, who is for AMNESTY with “pathways” for invaders to “come out of the shadows” BS.

[dforest]

Obama 2X

[Califreak]

I could be wrong but I think that surge was manufactured like the previous dead elephant bumps of Carly and Ben.

Is Cruz the anybody but Trump straw they’re grabbing at this week?

Sure seems like it.

[usafa92]

Excellent analysis D1. Looks like you’ll be getting the usual comments from the Cruz supporters. God forbid you should point out anything negative about their candidate. Spot on with your comments regarding Cruz never hiring anyone with anything other than government money. I’m tired of speeches and theory. I want a candidate that’s got his own skin in the game, not donor and taxpayer money.

[I want the USA back]

Putting too much stock in the polls leads to disappointments. When polls are inherently unreliable, there will be conflicting results.

[Jane Long]

Excellent analysis D1. Looks like you’ll be getting the usual comments from the Cruz supporters. God forbid you should point out anything negative about their candidate.

>>>>>Spot on with your comments regarding Cruz never hiring anyone with anything other than government money. I’m tired of speeches and theory. I want a candidate that’s got his own skin in the game, not donor and taxpayer money.<<<<<

---

Bump...to your EVERY word, usafa!!

[exit82]

Excellent analysis, DO.

Thanks.

[MIA_eccl1212]

you are on to them... we see them for what they really are: push polls...

and we have seen them used numerous times already to push Donald OUT and elevate some other candidate in his place.

jeb, Rubio, Kasich, Fiorina (most recently) carson...

after they end up being phoney fake polls with no “there” there... it goes back to Mr.T being the leader again.
Cruz push polls are the next in the roster of “lets try to get anybody but the one we cannot buy nominated” candidates that the GOPe is desperate to install.

Donald is the end of them and they know it.
Cruz AND Trump are too smart for this and they see the pattern:
once is accident
twice is coincidence
three is a pattern
and four is... makes it a certainty.

The GOPe will try to do this with whoever opposes Hillary too... She’s their gal, if they cannot get Donald out of the way. Bank on it.

[AndyJackson]

This is so transparent once you look at it.

You can see how badly the jiggered the numbers by the number of folks picking Carson or Rubio as second choice. Who would vote for Rubio as second choice? Or Carson either? First choice, sure, I guess - whatever floats your boat. But second choice presumes there is a preferred first choice. For Rubbio that would be someone down at the bottom like Jeb. But there are not enough Jebbie first picks to spill over into that many Rubio second picks.

That is the problem with trying to manufacture a complicated lie - it can never add up.

[Tigen]

Aficionado TED CRUZ the maniac? I think not. Propagandist Donald I think so. The Don and a Man coming to a debate soon.

[going hot]

What is, is. Trump is on a big wave, riding the crest.

We for the first time in a long time, have two very good candidates in the top two positions.

There are personal favorites, understandably.

Those who wish to talk their guy up, go for it.

Those who wish to cut the other guy's knees off to make their guy taller, well, that is plain stupid.

Then there are those who got nothing but invectives and diatribes, screw 'em, all of 'em.

Regards these polls, well, they do appear somewhat, shall we say, massaged?

But really, are you surprised at all?

On a personal note, I want to see Trump kick ass like it has not been kicked for 35 years, then start the treason trials.

And while I am wishing, Chief Justice Cruz would be the move of the century, and would help shape LAW for another 30-50 years!

[DoughtyOne]

The more detailed, the harder it gets. I agree.

[onyx]

Thanks very much D-1 for devoting your time to bring us such a detailed and excellent analysis of the recent polls.

Incidentally, Donald Trump predicted the Des Moines Register would manufacture theirs ...

I can only surmise that Cruz's rise could have come about from Vander Plaat's endorsement. Is that his name,.. ? (I think so).

I look at Trump's crowd sizes and have to question the DMR's poll on that basis alone.

Either way, Trump or Cruz, the establishment candidates look completely screwed and that's great!

[cabojoe]

These polls smell like Mike Murphy and Karl Rove. They tried to distort Trump’s words, and that didn’t work. Now they are trying to distort the only thing they can...polls. Like Rush always says polls are just manufactured news.

[dforest]

Don’t get too excited. That debate has nine people.

[AdaGray]

The Polls are becoming a laughing stock. People are beginning to lie to Pollsters routinely as pay back for their dishonesty.