Something Smells Like Ten Day Old Tuna in the Sun... (Conflicting polls)

My own workup | 12/13/2015 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

Review this: LINK  12/07/2015

Then reveiw this: (below)  Six days later...  (the media wants you to think Trump fell 12 points and Cruz rose 11 points in six days)

Who are those three big supporters of Cruz in Iowa?  Aren't they the RNC approved power brokers for the state?

                                                                                                                            data, then comments below

the Numbers			12/13/2015
Among likely Republican caucus goers
					Carson	Cruz	Rubio	Trump	Not Sure
Would be best at managing the economy					7	24	10	50	8
Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem					5	22	15	50	8
Knows the most about how to get things done					6	22	13	49	10
Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit					6	27	10	48	10
Can best combat Islamic terrorism					5	32	13	35	16
Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin					10	31	13	34	13
Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton					11	26	20	30	14
Would make the best commander in chief					12	34	18	25	11
Has the most appropriate life experience to be president					10	34	19	24	13
Has the right values to lead the nation					22	34	18	16	10
Would do the most to make all abortion illegal					23	32	7	6	32
Would work most effectively with Congress					18	31	29	12	10
Cares the most about people like you					24	28	19	17	12
Has the best temperament to be president					23	24	25	11	7
					182	401	229	407	174
All other things being equal, which of the following
is a more attractive candidate for president at this time:
39	A government outsider who has handled
	complex issues and managed teams
30	A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national
	security and international relations and diplomatic issues
19	A governor, who has worked with a legislature and
	who has been responsible for balancing a budget
12	Not sure
Which one of the following Republicans would be
your first choice for president?
And who would your second choice be?
If Uncommitted or not sure in first choice question,
code second choice
as no first choice and do not ask.
	FIRST	SECOND	COMBINED
Cruz, Ted	31	20	51
Trump Donald	21	14	35
Carson, Ben	13	14	27
Rubio, Marco	10	14	24
Bush, Jeb	6	5	11
Christie, Chris	3	3	6
Huckabee, Mike	3	5	8
Paul, Rand	3	3	6
Kasich, John	2	2	4
Fiorina, Carley	1	4	5
Santorum, Rick	1	2	3
Gilmore, Jim	-	-	-
Graham, Linda	-	-	-
Pataki, George	-	-	-
Not Sure	4	4
Uncomitted	3	3
No First Choice		7

Among likely Republican caucus goers
(from above)

Something DOES NOT add up when you start thinking about this section, and what it reveals about the Iowa caucus likely voters.

Let's look at the issues Trump does best on:

Note that of the real meat and potatoes issues in that section, Trump scores 50, 50, 49, & 48 points.  Cruz's top score on any subject, 34 points.
Of the first five items, Trump's numbers are higher than Ted's highest category.  Look at the issues those cover.  Immigration, the National Debt,
the Economy, actually getting things done, these are the issues Trump swamps Cruz on.  Most polls reveal three of these to be the biggest concerns
to U. S. Citizens at the current time, and the fourth issue is crucial, if we actually want to see those first three addressed and corrected.  That's why
I refer to these as the meat and potatoes issues.

Let's look at the issues Cruz does best on:

Has the appropriate life experience.  Can we get real for a minute here?  The presidency is a CEO like position.  The president delegates authority
through his department heads and project coordinators.  It's a CEO's position.  Ted Cruz has very little management experience, and no top level
CEO experience.  Trump has over 40 years of multilayer management oversight.  He has had to exercise his judgement at the city, county, state,
federal, and international level.  It has been his money on the line, and he has been responsible for the financial stability of 22,500 homes, his employees
and their families live in.  Cruz's contribution to this type of situation is zilch.  He hasn't hired one person on his dime in his lifetime.  Life experience?
That's a sad commentary on judgement folks.

Has the right values to lead the nation.  This would be a lot more impressive, if it weren't for one thing.  Who was the candidate selected as the most
capable of getting things done?  Was it Cruz?  No.  So if you want to get things done, do you pick the guy with values that won't get anything done?
What about Immigration, the National Debt, the Economy?  Don't those things need fixes to get implemented?  Who did the same people pick to
be the guy most likely to do it?  It wasn't Cruz.

Would do the most to make all abortion illegal.  This may be true.  I insert the word may because a president does not do things all by himself.  He
has work with Congress, and our Congress has not impressed anyone with their propensity to pass Conservative ANYTHING.  This Republican
Congress took no action whatsoever to reign in Planned Parenthood.  What faith do we have that they will change?  I think the only way they
change is if a powerful CEO type comes in and literally shames them into doing it.  If not that, then going to the public and asking them to please
call up their leaders and tell them, do it or else.  I do not see Cruz as capable of doing this, and the public agreed Trump was more likely to get
things done.  However there is a catagory that touches on dealing with Congress, and it reveals the public thinks Ted will do better dealing with
Congres than Trump would.  That's kind of a two edege sword, and I'll explain why I say that.  On the one hnd Ted has a connection to Capital
Hill, so he might have a better chance of getting people to go his way.  On the other hand, we know what Capital Hill is like these days, and if the
public thinks Cruz is more likely to be able to deal with those on Capital Hill, what is that saying?  They think he could deal with Leftists better
than Trump can?  Is that really a compliment, or is it an area of concern.  I'm not convinced either man will get Capital Hill to outright ban
abortion or even take substantive actions against agencies like Planned Parenthood.  It's a shame, but we saw what happened when Hitlerian
debachery was revealed earlier this year.  NOTHING.  If that didn't cause action, what would?  I honestly don't know.

Would work most effectively with Congress.  Here's that issue I just touched on above.  Is it a plus or a negative to be seen as a person that can
get along with the political players in Congress?  We know what the Democrats have been like for decades, and now the Republicans are essentially
a carbon copy.  They don't stand up to Obama on anything.  Is harmoney with Congress something we should see as a positive or a negative?

Has the best temperament to be president.  Okay, finally the one I know you were all waiting for.  LOL  This is the Goldwater question.  "You folks
know what he's like, do you really want his finger on the trigger?'  Trump has pretty much addressed this for what it is all along.  "They want me to be
nice.  It's time to quit being nice and get some things done.  That's how I see this, but there's more.  What kind of a question is this?  Is it a Conservative
question or a Leftist question?  "Tell me what your inner feelings are."  How do you feel about Trump or Cruz?  It's a silly question meant to move
public opinion.  In this poll it was quite successful.  Despite seeing Trump as the best guy to actually get the most important things done, these likely
caucus goes picked feelings over intellectual truth.  Trump would be better concerning my top ticket items, but I like Cruz.  I have to pick Cruz.  Duh.

Has the best temperament to be president.  Ditto the above.  Just silly and as Leftist as it gets.

Would make the best commander in chief.  If I were the Cruz folks looking at the internals on all this, I wouldn't be as celebratory as his rank and
file supporters seem to be.  Despite the (reportedly) likely Caucus goers seeing Trump as the best on the meat and potato issues and thinking he
would be the most likely to get them addressed and fixed, these folks voted their feelings instead.  Coupled with the CNN poll for six days earlier
and you have a bit of a problem on your hands.  Did Trump fall 12 points and Cruz rocket up 11 points in six days?  No.  They know it and we
know it.  This wasn't about who would make the best Commander in Chief.  It was about a push poll that got exactly the results it's operatives wanted.

Let's move to the next secion, about:


What type of person is the most attractive Candidate?
(from above)

What do we see here in the way of preferences?  What we decidedly see is that the profile of Trump came in ahead of the profile of Cruz by nearly
33% of Cruz's support.  Trump got 39% and Cruz got 30%.

At this point, it is clear that the likely Caucus voters were impressed with Trump's ability to address the most important issues, was more likely to get
them fixed, and posess the skills they think the next president needs.

And then the inexplicable selection:


Who would be your choice for president?
(from above)

Ted Cruz receives the 31% ranking for first choice and 20% as second choice.  (51% combined)

Donald Trump receives 21% ranking for first choice and 14% as second choice.  (35% combined)

The numbers revealed for this polling data conflict seriously with the presidential selection.  I'm sure Cruz's team will take that any way they can get it, and
I don't blame them.  Where this gets spotty, is if there were games played here.  If there were, and these numbers make that more than likely, what
happens next?


Then there was that troubling poll released just six days prior.  How did that "accurate" poll come out with those numbers concerning likely Caucas
goers, and this accurate polls likely goers.  Which accurate was really accurate?


The Cruz team can celebrate all they like, but somewhere out of sight of the public, there are some very troubled people right about now.

They are not on the Trump team.

D1  

[erod]

It’s a scam! All of these news organizations are out to get the Donald! How DARE THEY have polls that show a Cruz surge! That’s downright un-American!!! </sarc>

[gwgn02]

Keep on Cruzin!

[RIghtwardHo]

Oh good grief. Let’s just get to a real Primary, shall we? Ask Huckabee and Santorum (among others) how important Iowa is. It ain’t.

[Berlin_Freeper]

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/2015/12/04/the-cnn-poll-with-trump-at-36-percent-has-a-serious-flaw

[Raycpa]

My first choice and my vote are two different questions. I may not vote for my first choice.

[Berlin_Freeper]

The Trouble With Trump Polls

[bgill]

Just as I thought. I said earlier that they’ll manipulate the numbers to place Trump second in this next debate.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama might disagree with that.

[Amntn]

Excellent analysis DoughtyOne.

Thanks for laying all of this out.

This polling outfit has a very good record in polls taken just before an election but not so much prior to the final poll.

[jjotto]

Ask GW Bush.

[Shamrock-DW]

I lke what Trump says.....but he, so far...has no answers. Like a lot of BS from both sides.

[Jane Long]

My first choice and my vote are two different questions. I may not vote for my first choice.

---

That ^^.

I thought that was an odd way to ask the question, as well. Why not ask how you’ll vote for. Some evangelicals might want Cruz for his ‘evangelicalism’....but, will vote for Trump to kick @ and take names....to get this mess fixed.

[babble-on]

Yes, it’s well-known that America’s media is in love with Ted Cruz!

[digger48]

Something Smells Like Ten Day Old Tuna in the Sun...

I thought this thread was about Hillary.

My bad.

[V K Lee]

Good Grief!! The pollsters have to show something to earn all the money which has been paid! Why not perform surgery, attach Trump/Cruz together half and half. Then we’d be left with #1 = nothing but a rag doll or #2= SUPERMAN

There came a time several months ago where it was decided polls were nothing more than fiction - with the country in such a shape at the moment, we shouldn’t be reading fiction.

Polls are only another way to stuff pockets with OPM after they’ve lined those same pockets with the larger OPM - $ bills.

Will await the exit polls on election night to find the ending of this long, long epic saga.
Will also be counting the rewrites, each and every one.

Thanks for the ping, Amntn

[dforest]

Iowa is a RAT State.

[woofie]

Trump only does “UP”

[smoothsailing]

Outstanding, thanks for taking the time putting that together!

[2ndDivisionVet]

So that's why both their US senators, their legislature, governor and many congressmen are Republicans?