Get Ready for $10 Oil

Bloomberg | A. Gary Shilling

[Duke C.]

At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.

[Rusty0604]

May be nice for some people but not for all.

[GraceG]

10 dollar a barrel oil would destroy all our domestic production and exploration.

[82nd Bragger]

“If you know what’s going to happen in the future, then you should be buying futures. But experience has shown that only half of these predictions come true....”

Why not deep out-of-the-money put options (say around $20 or $25)?

I believe futures prices are still tied to spot prices.

[BikerJoe]

10 dollar a barrel oil would destroy all our domestic production and exploration.

That's Oilfinger's plan!

[txrefugee]

Expect to have to wait in long gas lines if that happens. The oil companies will shut in wells and shut down refineries because they would be losing over $20 per barrel. So the supply of gasoline will dry up.

[WKUHilltopper]

10 bucks...a gallon probably. Bloomingidiotberg...sheesh.

[SunkenCiv]

Great comments.

[SunkenCiv]

OPEC Has Already Turned to the Euro
GoldMoney Alert
February 18, 2004

...The source for the euro exchange rate is the Federal Reserve, and I have calculated the euro's average exchange rate to the dollar for each year based on daily data.

US Imports of Crude oil
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Year	Quantity (thousands of barrels)	Value (thousands of US dollars)	Unit price (US dollars)	Average daily US$ per € exchange rate	Unit price (euros)
2001	3,471,066	74,292,894	21.40	0.8952	23.91
2002	3,418,021	77,283,329	22.61	0.9454	23.92
2003	3,673,596	99,094,675	26.97	1.1321	23.82

We can see from column (4) in the above table that in 2001, each barrel of imported crude oil cost $21.40 on average for that year. But by 2003 the average price of a barrel of crude oil had risen 26.0% to $26.97 per barrel. However, the important point is shown in column (6). Note that the price of crude oil in terms of euros is essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period.

As the dollar has fallen, the dollar price of crude oil has risen. But the euro price of crude oil remains essentially unchanged throughout this 3-year period. It does not seem logical that this result is pure coincidence. It is more likely the result of purposeful design, namely, that OPEC is mindful of the dollar's decline and increases the dollar price of its crude oil by an amount that offsets the loss in purchasing power OPEC's members would otherwise incur. In short, OPEC is protecting its purchasing power as the dollar declines.

[LouAvul]

Mostly refinery upkeep.

[Star Traveler]

Oil and gas prices are going back up. Gasoline in the last three weeks (in Tulsa) has jumped in about 5-10¢ jumps at a times ... five or six time in this time period. Yesterday it jumped 10¢ a gallon.

That writer is smoking something, or he’s in a time-warp from about four weeks ago! ... LOL ...

[Star Traveler]

What?! ... 40¢ a gallon for that?! Someone is smoking something out there!

[lee martell]

Three weeks ago, I would have considered agreeing with him, but not now. The prices, they keep going up. The “dream” is over!

[Star Traveler]

It costs 40¢ a gallon for refinery upkeep?!

[82nd Bragger]

“10 dollar a barrel oil would destroy all our domestic production and exploration”.

Exactly. And what we do if the Saudi’s subsequently raised it to $200 a barrel?

[SunkenCiv]

Lower cost of fuel means more ethanol, period. Not what you may have thought...

It's the Obamacare, stupid! One-half gallon of oil at the old recent high prices, in the form of pesticides per bushel of corn, would cost $2 to $3 per bushel. If this were true -- and it clearly isn't -- it should be enough to illustrate to literally anyone that the price of petroleum is quite literally the ONLY thing driving corn prices. And that idiotic piece of agitprop to the right -- from a hydrogen "energy" advocacy site -- also shows the guy in the encounter suit spraying chemical fertilizer, a sight that I've never been privileged to see, what with me *growing up on a farm*. The Bum Rap on Biofuels [2008] Campaign to vilify ethanol revealed [2008] Oil Price Pressure Driving Global Switch to Biofuels [2006]

[eastforker]

$10 oil could cause a world war III if it stays that low for any length of time and would also destroy the world economy. Then again, maybe that is what’s needed. At some point in time, the reset button has got to be pressed. It can not continue the way it has been going. On the bright side, if that ever happens, maybe an alternative clean energy source can then be implemented if it exist.

[central_va]

How does cheap energy destroy an economy?

[MeshugeMikey]

this rapid dip and rise...is nuts!

[eastforker]

What do you think drives this world economy? It’s oil and has been close to almost a hundred years.

[central_va]

Crude oil is a raw material, if it were free it would be a huge boon.