I think that Bush is going to win in '04, but I think the ultimate price for that win won't be realized until '08 when Hillary becomes the first woman elected to the Presidency. And if the GOP continues its embrace of the Democrat agenda, it's gonna happen.
The Dem's can't field someone in '04 that can beat Bush, and they know it. But it's much easier to win the White House when there is no incumbent running for re-election. I think they're more than happy to slowly drag GWB to their end of the spectrum and then pounce in '08 after four more years of conservatives being hung out to dry by a clueless GOP.