Your analysis neglects the obvious: The "something" that will happen to "give Bustamante a tremendous boost" is that old-math standby--Democrat voter fraud.
BTW, McClintock has demonstated a political rigidity that makes him uniquely unqualified to be governor of the hodgepodge that is CA-- as opposed to Arnold, with his easy charm, charisma, leadership skills and open mind.
And I was especially offended by McClintock's in fact exploitive faux outrage re the dem stink bombs.
It is critical to think out of the box, beyond California. For the clintons, the California recall election is no less than a proxy for their war with the Kennedys for the control of the Democrat Party (and the country).
EPILOGUE: THE 9TH CIRCUIT RULING
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Yeah, well, I guess principle can look like rigidity, depending on your perspective.
I heard Shawn Steel one time make a comment that sums up my POV (I paraphrase from memory): "The Republican party is occasionally an instrument of liberty." On this occasion, Tom McClintock, with whatever human flaws he brings along, is the only candidate in this race who intends to advance the cause of liberty. Arnold may slow the march to totalitarianism, while Cruz may hasten it, but the simple fact is that Arnold and Cruz are marching down that road together.
Tom, and his sometimes cranky supporters, are heading in a different direction alltogether. It's probably a lost cause, but it's a worthy one, and the hour is getting late. We won't get many more chances to turn back, before we find ourselves living in a European style soft socialist state, or worse.