There two good reasons why you can't apply Tom's percentage in the Controller's race last year to this recall. 1) Tom ran against an absolute nobody in the Controller's race (and still lost). Now he's up against more high-profile competition. 2) Tom was born to be State Controller, with his wonkish accountant personality. He isn't a good fit for the office of Governor. He'll be lucky to get one-fourth the percentage he received in his Controller run.
Tom's got more approval than you think, besides the 50% in 02 where Californian learned which horse could garner the votes.
On Freerepublic, I see the same posters, over and over, demonizing Tom. Then I see different posters (lurkers) questioning the stampede. The greasy wheel is not going to win this. Coming down the wire, I'd like the see a daily count or vote on FR like we had when this started.