Iran Unlikely to Meet Nuclear Deadline
Wed October 1, 2003 03:53 AM ET
By Paul Hughes
TEHRAN (Reuters) -
Loathe to ditch a project it began in 1985 and riven by factional disputes on how to respond to international pressure, Iran appears unlikely to allay fears about its atomic aims before an October 31 U.N. deadline.
Failure to do so could see Iran's case taken before the United Nations Security Council where the Islamic Republic would face possible economic and diplomatic sanctions.
"At the moment it looks like they're on a collision course with the Security Council," said one European diplomat in Tehran. "You can't rule it out, but I can't see them pulling a surprise and meeting our demands before the deadline."
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are due in Tehran Thursday to begin a crucial round of visits and talks to verify Iran's statements that its sophisticated network of nuclear plants is geared solely to electricity production.
IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei said Tuesday Iran must give his team "full cooperation" soon or face accusations it is secretly building a nuclear weapons capability.
But as the clock ticks Tehran shows little sign of softening its stance.
Angered by the IAEA call for it to clear up remaining questions and halt uranium enrichment, Iran says it will only give inspectors limited access to nuclear sites.
Enriched uranium can be used as fuel for power plants, or as bomb material if highly enriched.
GRUDGING COOPERATION
Iran says arms-grade enriched uranium traces found at two Iranian plants by IAEA inspectors this year were caused by contamination from imported centrifuge enrichment parts.
But to the dismay of the IAEA, diplomats say, Iran still refuses to say where the imported parts came from.
"They just don't show any sign of changing their pattern of very grudging and limited cooperation," a diplomat said.
Hard-liners, who control the main levers of power in Iran and tend to have the final say on security matters, argue Tehran must not bow to international pressure. "Pulling out of the NPT (nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) is the most logical path to adopt," Hossein Shariatmadari, influential editor of the hard-line Kayhan newspaper, wrote in an editorial Tuesday.
Members of Iran's reformist government say following North Korea's example of pulling out of the NPT is not on the cards.
Some argue in favor of signing up to tougher nuclear inspections to head off concerns expressed by the European Union, Russia and Japan as well as arch foe the United States.
"We should neutralize the propaganda against Iran's peaceful nuclear activities," deputy Foreign Minister Mohsen Aminzadeh said last week. "If we fail, global public opinion will remain suspicious about our peaceful activities and will block them."
Officials say Iran's response to the IAEA demands is being analyzed by the Supreme National Security Council, where reformist officials rub shoulders with representatives of hardline bodies such as the Revolutionary Guards.
"The debate is very intense as the public comments suggest. But ultimately the onus is on reformists to convince the hard-liners that it's in Iran's best interests to meet the IAEA's demands," said one local analyst.
NO GUARANTEES
While differences exist between hard-liners and reformers about how to respond to international pressure, there is broad cross-factional support for the nuclear program.
Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi told U.S. audiences last week Iran would sign the NPT Additional Protocol for no-notice inspections in return for assurances it could continue its nuclear program, including enrichment, for peaceful ends.
"We want to make sure this (signing the protocol) is going to solve our problems and remove all suspicions," Kharrazi said.
Such assurances, however, are unlikely to be forthcoming.
Concerned that Iran may sign the Additional Protocol but delay for years its ratification and implementation, the European Union Monday hardened its stance by demanding Iran also stop activities which could produce fissile material.
That would mean halting a uranium enrichment project which Iran now acknowledges dates back to 1985.
"This is the key sticking point now," said the local analyst. "The hard-liners are saying that no matter what Iran does, even signing the protocol, Washington and its allies will keep up the pressure."
"And even the reformers in the government are not prepared to give up the nuclear program altogether."
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3537365