I think you misinterpreted what I wrote. I said that people are using this poll to say "Vote for McClintock, he can win!", but they are basing it on a hypothetical situation that does not exist. Schwarzenegger nor McClintock will drop out.
Ah yes, I did. No arguements there. There is nothing in this world that will stop the Stealth Candidate from his goal of acquiring power for its own sake. He has been positioning himself for a political career for YEARS, I got a kick out of the comments by the spokesman after the Oui article that he didn't live his life ot run for office, if there was ever anybody that wasn't true for, it was the ambitious (R)nold.
Especially being so close. Anyone to submit that (R)nold would ever drop out no matter what Mulholund releases in the next few days is kidding themselves.
How about the rest of it though, do you understand where I am coming from?
What you say is true. It is a hypothetical sistuation. But the dynamics of a Bustamante meltdown (if that is in the process) may significantly change the nature of the conservative vote.
The conservative vote (regardless of party affiliation) will be very strong in this recall election. It may account for up to 50% of the total vote. (Earlier I had predicted over 40% based on a close race in the yes/no portion of the recall - but Davis seems to be imploding too, depressing the liberal vote.) The conservative vote had been breaking for Schwarzenegger by about 6:3 over McClintock. Yet, at the same time many of these conservatives stated that McClintock would be the better Governor. Their rationale for going with Schwarzenegger was that he could beat Bustamante. As Bustamante fades, that Schwarzenegger "soft" support might also begin to fade back to the McClintock column. These are voters who are highly motivated to come to the polls. I am doubtful that enough conservatives will swing back to McClintock, but a McClintock rise in the polls is a natural result of the Davis/Bustamante fold-o.