McClintock Beats Bustamante in CA Recall!

Gallup Poll ^ | 9/30/03 | Gallup Poll

[evilsmoker]

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Either McClintock or Schwarzenegger Likely Winner in California if Other Dropped Out

With Arnold Schwarzenegger the Republican front-runner in the California gubernatorial contest, many GOP officials have pressured California State Sen. Tom McClintock to drop out of the race, fearing he will divide the Republican vote and allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to win. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted over the past weekend, shows that McClintock does indeed draw support away from Schwarzenegger, though not enough to deprive the actor of the lead among probable voters. But the poll also shows that if Schwarzenegger were not in the race, McClintock would likely be in first place by a substantial margin, rather than behind Bustamante.

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Tuesday, September 30, 2003

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A majority of registered voters in California say they are extremely or very interested in the recall election. How interested would you say you are in this recall election - extremely interested, very interested, moderately interested, only a little interested, or not at all interested? ± 4% Margin of Error September 25-27, 2003 Sample Size= 787 Registered voters in California

[evilsmoker]

Don't try to pretend Weintraub is some unbiased analyst. You know full well he's been an Arnold-the-Baby-Terminator cheerleader from day one.

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

I am very disappointed in you Scott.

Goodbye.

[pogo101]

It's a good result for Tom, but it's not about the THREE-person race that's actually being run, which has this Arnold guy in it too.

Also, in a state as liberal as this one is, I find it hard to believe that 56% of likely voters REALLY would vote for someone with Tom's positions (although how many are, in my view, fibbing is hard to guess), particularly when one considers that if Tom were the leading contender (as after a primary win someday soon?) in a race, he'd suddenly be cast as the Evil Demon Against "Choice" And For Assault Weapon Deaths!!

So I'm guessing that some fraction of those expressing that view are doing so out of frustration with Davis and Bustamante.

[CheneyChick]

[SierraWasp]

I too used to think highly of Ray, but this Schwarzenagger Swooning was just too much for me to take. He and Tom were the first electeds to take the recall seriously, before Darrel jumped in with his money. I see no loyalty, no integrity and now I remember he's a lawyer and then I understand it. That's what they teach in law school. "Let's make a deal... come on down!!!"

I'm just disappointed as I am with what I'm seeing in too many Freepers. I never dreamed they'd be such push-overs for a candidate that doesn't whole heartedly support all the views I've see them promulgate since 1998!!! That's all...

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

Spam. (and old)

[doug from upland]

The person behind in the polls needs to drop out. The RATS are going to spring a big surprise and the polls are going to be wrong. One GOP candidate needs all the votes because a wave of Hispanic voters will be going to the polls. Their massive participation is not being considered enough. They are likely voters -- not voters who are going to stay home. They want a governor who is Hispanic.

[evilsmoker]

You are probably right, it a normal race they would be turning into an evil demon. But they do that in every race -- whether the candidate is moderate or conservative. Remember those right wingers Dick Riordan and Matt Fong?? But this isn't a normal race so that strategy won't work.

[EGPWS]

These last two months have made it abundantly clear that many conservatives do not and will not vote based on their principles.

Those principles obviously lack any steadfast conviction then. So what does that make them?

True conservatives? politically confused? Liberal? Spoilers?

Or just wishy washy.

Alas, when one votes for a person and not principle, one is lost....along with their principled mindset.

[deport]

Everyone by now knows that the casino gaming tribes, which clearly favor Bustamante, are helping McClintock in what appears to be a strategy of pulling votes away from Schwarzenegger.

---

Has the $2 million in Indian ads began running yet? I think they were scheduled for the last week or so of the campaign.....

Heck if it wouldn't be for them 'tock wouldn't have much in the way of media advertising for the wrap up.....

Why does McClintock think he's ENTITLED to the CA Governorship?

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

One GOP candidate needs all the votes because a wave of Hispanic voters will be going to the polls. Their massive participation is not being considered enough.

Is that a fact? Could be looked at in a different way.

Where you aware that a recent Public Policy Poll had (R)nold being the top vote getter among Hispanics? Guess who was second? None other than ProLife Tom McClintock. BustaMEChA was, gasp, a close 3rd.

Tom actually has a higher rating among Hispanics than he does among California "Republicans"

Stop pigeonholing the Hispanics as for Bustamante, they don't like La MEChA and abortion any more than whites like the Klan and abortion.

[doug from upland]

I didn't make it clear. I heard info earlier (I can't remember the source) that talked about massive organizing of farm workers and others, many of whom have never voted before. They are the Mecha base.

[evilsmoker]

I'm disappointed in Haynes too -- I guess his leadership in the Republican caucus was more important to him than standing with those who have always stood with him. And the nastiness here at FR against McClintock supporters has been shocking. They seem to think it's clever to attack Tom based on his looks. Very petty, but I guess that's all they have.

[deport]

You are probably right, it a normal race they would be turning into an evil demon.

---

In a normal race their would have been a primary and the winner would be the only Republican in the race. So the Party to a large degree would be behind that candidate.... With this Jungle race it's every dog for himself with his faction trying to woo a few of the others.... This is typical Lousiana races everytime... Throw them all in a pot and let the top two run it off if no one gets a majority. Only in this CA race it's a plurality...

[PeoplesRep_of_LA]

They are the Mecha base.

That is debatable, but a possibility.

I don't think, despite the Bustamante story telling, that the fruit pickers are a sizeable amount of Hispanics in California today...

The Republican party made a mistake with the blacks decades ago, trying to out liberal the liberals and talk to them like their are from outter space. The GOP would be wise to back someone like McClintock who can treat them like adults, I promise the Hispanics will respond resoundingly.

Course, I think it is clear throughout history that the CA GOP is not smart.

[My2Cents]

We can win this thing!

Only if Arnold drops out, which he won't. Stop torturing yourself.

[My2Cents]

Checking in...

Check the most recent FreeRepublic survey (unscientific as it is). It shows more Freepers supporting Arnold than those supporting Tom. Arnold has plenty of conservative support -- here, in the Republican Party, among conservative talk show hosts (e.g., Michael Medved, Hugh Hewitt, Dennis Prager), and across the state.

And conservative support for Arnold isn't simply because of expediency. Those who say that Arnold isn't a conservative haven't recognized that his key economic team members are thinkers at the Hoover Institution; didn't read his op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal this past week; didn't hear his comments at the state GOP convention a couple of weeks ago; and don't consider conservative his comments that Californians are overtaxed, that the fiscal problem is that the state spends too much money rather than takes in too little revenue, and that anti-business legislation needs to be opposed in order to improve the state's economic climate. Plus, Hillary Clinton considers Arnold a “right-winger,” so that should be the clincher.

The following is from Arnold's speech at the Republican Convention (in any other election, these comments would be plenty for conservatives):

"What I saw in Austria made me anti-communist. What I saw in California made me a free-enterprise, fiscally conservative Republican. Republican principles are what built California into the Golden State.

”I came to America 35 years ago as an immigrant. By working playing by the rules, my immigrant dreams came true. I want other people to have the same chances, the same opportunities. I am a Republican because of what Ronald Reagan said – government bureaucrats can never substitute for millions of individuals working night and day to make their dreams come true.

”That's what being a Republican means.

”Let me tell you what being a conservative means to me.

”I'm a conservative because I believe communism is evil and free enterprise is good.

”I'm a conservative because Milton Friedman is right and Karl Marx was wrong.

”I'm a conservative because I believe the government serves the people; the people don't serve the government.

”I'm a conservative because I believe in balanced budgets, not budget deficits.

”I'm a conservative because I believe the money that people earn is their money – not the government’s money.

”And when you look at this driver's license outrage, I'm a conservative because I believe in the rule of law not in political pandering. The driver's license issue is not about race; it's about law. It's about a fair playing field. It's about living by the rules.

”That's why people come to this country – because our laws mean something.

”As governor, I promise you – our laws will mean something.”

[The KG9 Kid]

"... And the nastiness here at FR against McClintock supporters has been shocking."

I've never been nasty to McClintock himself, I'd like to mention. He's a good man, and a valuable asset.

I will vote YES on the recall, and YES on whomever has the best chance to keep Bustamante out of the governor's seat come election day. Right now, I am not buying that McClintock is solidly polling ahead of Bustamante or is even close to Arnold.

McClintock has not trashed his reputation. If Arnold wins, it will all be forgotten right about the time is due to kick Boxer out of office. Schwarzenegger probably would lose to Boxer for the Senate seat, but McClintock would kick her hippie butt back to the East Coast. Governorships are for schnooks. Senate seats are a huge bag of marbles. McClintock should think about that.

If McClintock spoils us and Bustamante gets in, then yes, McClintock is dust.

[ScottinSacto]

Don't try to pretend Weintraub is some unbiased analyst. You know full well he's been an Arnold-the-Baby-Terminator cheerleader from day one.

I'm not pretending anything. If you have read his blog over the last two months, then you would know how false your statement is. He is not in the Arnold camp. He has said he may be more in line with Arnold philosophically, but just a cursory scan of his blog entry titles runs counter to your cheerleader bias theory.

My point was that the media would eat McClintock alive if he was anywhere near even second place. This morning's article in the LA Slimes on John Stoos is a perfect example. Lots of folks here might agree to some extent or other with some of the views espoused by Stoos....but those views are not getting people elected statewide are they?

I was not passing judgement on the candidate...just that things are very different in the Capitol press corp when you are in a distant third place. The press corp begins to spend more time on the folks when they become more important and rise in the polls. That bias that is so talked about here becomes more apparent. Right now they are not spending the time, because they don't think TC is a factor. If they thought TC was indeed a factor you would be seeing articles on quotes like this from John Stoos:

“However, with the evil of abortion-on-demand and other godless actions today, Americans must wonder how much longer God will stay His hand of judgment.”

The press corp would kill them on this, even though it is not the slightest bit related to anything in this election. Most reporters are small minded fools that like to read short phrases off of cue cards, and they will only understand that these guys are pro-life and most of CA is not....and the feeding frenzy would begin.

[evilsmoker]

One more point, McClintock at 28%, is pulling in more Independents than Schwarzenegger 14% or Bustamante 24%.